Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ATI] ATI Thesis 2026: Aerospace Materials Majority Positions for Billion-Dollar EBITDA Target
ATI Inc. FY25 revenue $4.59B (+5%); op income $641M (+5%); NI $404M (+10%); EPS $2.85 (+12%); adj EPS $3.24 (+32%). Adj EBITDA >$859M (+18% YoY). Q4 adj EBITDA $232M (margin 19.7% above guidance). Adj FCF $380M FY25 (+53%). Aerospace + Defense 68% of FY revenue (vs 62% FY24); A&D +14% YoY full year; jet engine sales +21% FY25. Specialty Energy +9% YoY Q4. ATI now producing 6 of the 7 most advanced jet engine nickel alloys, supported by long-term agreements (LTAs). FY26 guide: adj EBITDA $975M-$1.025B (midpoint $1B / +16% YoY); adj FCF $430M-$490M (midpoint $460M / +21% YoY); adj EPS $3.99-$4.27; Q1 adj EBITDA reflects seasonality; gross capex $280M-$300M / net capex $220M-$240M (customer funding partial offset).