Research · Sep 3, 2026
[AROC] Archrock Thesis 2026: LNG Export and AI Power Demand Drive Compression Fleet Expansion
Archrock's compression-as-a-service model hit a secular inflection in FY2025: ~4.53M HP fleet at ~95% utilization, revenue/HP/month growing to ~$23.65 (+4% YoY), and adj. EBITDA ~$540M at ~39% margins. The FY2026 thesis: US LNG export capacity expanding from 14 to 25+ Bcf/day by FY2030 (each Bcf/day needs 400K+ HP of compression) plus AI data center power demand for Permian gas = sustained fleet expansion at 18-22% ROIC, compounding EPS toward $2.00+ as FCF steps up when growth capex moderates.