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AGBK

AGI Inc

NYSE · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · BR

$6.75
−1.46%
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Analyst consensus

Next report date
Nov 11, 2026
EPS estimate
$0.31
Revenue estimate
$411.4M

Latest reported

Last report date
Aug 5, 2026
EPS actual
$0.28
EPS estimate
$0.25
Revenue actual
$617.0M
Revenue estimate
$404.5M

Track record

Trailing twelve quarters

EPS beats (12Q)
2
EPS misses (12Q)
1
EPS in line (12Q)
0
Avg surprise (4Q)
-22.2%
Revenue beats (12Q)
1
Earnings call summaryRead the full call →

Q2 FY2026 · Aug 5, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice

Management highlights

  • New Product Launch (AgiPlus Subscription Service)

    • AgiPlus is a new subscription membership offering customer savings on groceries and food, with entry-level subscribers saving up to $1,500 annually. It is positioned as a core long-term growth driver to build customer loyalty, boost recurring revenue, and de-risk the business model.
    • Early results after 45 days: Over 250,000 active subscriptions, 67% of new credit originations include an AgiPlus cross-sell, and 99% of sales agents have sold at least one subscription.
    • Unit economics: Expected annual revenue per customer of ~R$600, servicing costs of ~R$118, for an ~80% contribution margin. No revenue from AgiPlus was recognized in Q2 2026.
  • Customer Growth

    • Total active customers reached 7.6 million as of Q2 end 2026, a 36% YoY and 7% QoQ increase. 1.5 million customers now maintain a primary banking relationship (principality) with Agibank, representing strong sequential growth.
  • Credit Quality

    • Greater than 90-day non-performing loans (NPL) declined to 3.3% in Q2, below the Brazilian consumer credit industry average, with a coverage ratio of 182% (provisions over 90+ day NPLs), which management considers comfortable.
  • Capital & Credit Rating

    • Received credit rating upgrades from both Moody's and Fitch, raising the bank's rating from AA- to AA, demonstrating market confidence in Agibank's business model. Total equity increased 62% YoY reflecting net IPO proceeds, 12-month return on equity remained stable at 21.6%, and the consolidated capital adequacy ratio is a comfortable 18.7%.

Guidance

  • Management confirmed that Agibank is in a recovery phase, and expects a full business recovery by 2027, with improving profitability trends through the second half of 2026.
  • Management projects AgiPlus will reach 1 million total subscribers by the end of 2026, and will become a material contributor to stable fee-based revenue starting in Q3 2026.
  • The effective tax rate is expected to normalize upward from the negative Q2 level, moving into positive territory by the fourth quarter of 2026 at the latest.
  • Management expects net interest income and fee revenue to compound strongly in the second half of 2026, driving sequential pre-tax profit growth as operational leverage kicks in after upfront growth investments.
  • Unsecured loan portfolio balance is expected to start growing again in the second half of 2026, as strong origination growth outpaces natural amortization, though the inflection timing is partially dependent on Brazilian base rate movements.

Segment performance

Total company revenue for Q2 2026 was R$3.2 billion, a 26% year-over-year (YoY) and 6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase.

  • Credit Portfolio: Total loan balances grew 21% YoY to R$37.1 billion. Secured loans represent 88% of total portfolio (R$32.6 billion), and unsecured loans represent 12% (R$4.4 billion), remaining flat YoY.
  • INSS Payroll Credit: Holds 9.6% market share in Q2 2026, a 160 bps YoY increase, including 60 bps QoQ growth.
  • Private Payroll Credit: Portfolio grew to R$1.4 billion, a 48% QoQ and 184% YoY increase, with current net origination running at ~R$150-200 million per month.
  • Net Interest Income: Grew 11% YoY and 3% QoQ to R$1.3 billion.
  • Recurring Net Income: Reached R$200 million, a 7% QoQ increase.
  • Total Deposits: Grew 18% YoY to R$39.9 billion; 62% of funding comes from institutional counterparties, 38% from retail sources.

Risks & headwinds

  • Persistently high domestic interest rates in Brazil continue to pressure net interest margins across the industry, and have delayed the expected increase in unsecured lending market share.
  • Private payroll lending is still a relatively new, untested product for the market, and aggressive growth could lead to higher-than-expected delinquency if credit modeling is inaccurate.
  • New provisional portability regulations issued in May 2026 temporarily reduced portability fee revenue in Q2, creating near-term uncertainty for this small segment of the fee business.
  • Upfront costs associated with rapid customer and portfolio growth pressured near-term pre-tax profitability in Q2, with revenue gains expected to materialize in subsequent quarters.
  • Regulatory volatility in the Brazilian market created headwinds during the quarter, even as Agibank still gained INSS payroll market share.

Analyst Q&A

Q: Private payroll loans grew 48% QoQ off a larger base, and peers have seen high delinquency with fast growth in this product. Why is this growth rate appropriate, and why is the risk contained? Also, pre-tax profit fell 47% QoQ and missed consensus; is this decline transitory or a new baseline for profitability? / A: Management is comfortable with current growth because they reached a confident credit modeling quality in Q1, and are running at a steady ~R$150-200 million monthly net origination that they plan to maintain. First payment default rates are below internal thresholds, and the product meets internal return thresholds (NII covering 1.4-1.5x expected credit costs), supporting continued growth. The Q2 pre-tax profit decline is transitory: all growth-related costs (client servicing, technology, transactional) are recognized upfront, while revenue compounding will come in later quarters. Fee business (especially brokerage fees) grew 35% YoY, with AgiPlus adding new stable revenue starting in Q3.

Q: Can you clarify the split between upfront growth investment and provisioning for the lower pre-tax profit? Is provisioning understated for fast private payroll growth? / A: Provisioning cost as a percentage of the portfolio only rose very slightly to 5.9%, driven by product mix (private payroll has slightly higher required provisions) and faster growth. The bank follows all regulatory provisioning requirements, and the overall 90+ day NPL ratio fell to 3.3% with a 182% coverage ratio, so provisioning is appropriately sized. Most of the Q2 cost increase came from variable client servicing and technology costs for new primary relationship clients, which will be offset by future revenue growth.

Q: AgiPlus has hit 250,000 early subscribers. Which plan tier has the strongest uptake, and what is your penetration target by end of 2026? How will profitability and the Q2 negative tax rate normalize going forward? / A: The entry-level AgiPlus plan has the highest sales volume, with an expected average annual revenue per customer of R$600 and 80% contribution margin. Management targets 1 million total AgiPlus subscribers by end of 2026, with no revenue recognized in Q2 and contributions starting in Q3. The negative Q2 tax rate is tied to IPO proceeds tax treatment, deferred tax assets, and a low pre-tax base; the rate will definitely normalize upward as pre-tax profit grows, moving positive by Q4 2026 at the latest. Profitability will improve sequentially in H2 2026 as revenue compounds after upfront Q2 investments.

Q: Unsecured lending balance stayed flat in Q2, versus expectations it would gain share. What changed, and when will the mix shift to unsecured? Also, did higher funding costs drive NIM compression this quarter? / A: The bank increased unsecured origination by 80% QoQ, matching its plan. The flat balance came from extra amortization of 13th salary advances in May, which was a temporary effect not fully embedded in prior guidance. Management expects the unsecured balance to start growing in H2 2026 as origination outpaces amortization, though timing depends on Brazilian base rate moves. High benchmark rates pressured spreads, but Agibank's average funding cost continues to decline gradually after the recent credit rating upgrade; temporary NIM compression came from holding extra cash from recent funding issuance ahead of deploying it into new loans.

Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 11, 2026