Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ACLS] Axcelis Thesis 2026: Memory HBM Recovery and SiC Resumption Converge at Trough Multiples
Axcelis navigated a double-cycle trough in FY2025: memory capex pause (DRAM/NAND) and SiC deceleration (EV schedule pushouts) combined to push revenue to ~$900M (-15%). Gross margins held at ~44.8% via pricing discipline. The FY2026 recovery thesis: HBM DRAM fab construction at Samsung/SK Hynix beginning new tool orders + SiC resuming as EV production recovers — combined with 85-90% SiC market share via Purion H200 creating a structurally differentiated recovery versus pure-memory equipment peers.