Research · Mar 12, 2026
QatarEnergy's gas supply disruption has forced the Qatalum smelter to operate at ~60% capacity, removing approximately 235,000 metric tons of annualized aluminum production from global supply. Alcoa (AA) is best positioned as a vertically integrated beneficiary on both alumina pricing and aluminum supply tightness, while Century Aluminum (CENX) offers higher-beta upside but trades at stretched valuations with thin margins vulnerable to input cost spikes.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
The Qatar alumina supply disruption creates a meaningful but manageable gap in seaborne markets. Alcoa's ~2 million tonne trading book offers the fastest response, Rio Tinto's vertically integrated system is neutral to slightly negative for external supply, and Chinese exports act as a price ceiling rather than structural replacement. Medium-term relief depends on Indian and Indonesian refinery buildouts over 2026–2028.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Century Aluminum's $50M restart of Mt. Holly to 100% capacity (~220,000+ tonnes/year) is on track for summer 2026, representing a ~10% increase in US primary aluminum production. With Q1 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guided at $215–235M and a new greenfield smelter in the pipeline, the restart is a concrete step toward reducing US import dependence, though execution risk and aluminum price cyclicality remain key concerns.
