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SM

SM Energy Co

SM Energy Co Q4 FY2024 earnings call

February 19, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2024-12

EPS · actual vs est

$1.91 / $2.00Miss -4.5%

Revenue · actual vs est

$835.9M / $849.4MMiss -1.6%
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Summary

Generated 2025-02-19

Management highlights

  • SM Energy's 2025 plan expects a 40% increase in free cash flow, supported by 30% oil production growth and a strong balance sheet aiming for 1 times leverage by the second half of 2025. The Uinta Basin acquisition added about $40 per BOE cash production margin and increased gross inventory by ~40%. - In South Texas, a frac crew was dropped in Q4 2024, causing Q1 2025 production drop, but the crew restarted in January 2025. - Drilling 105 net wells in 2025 but completing 150 net wells, with the DUC count ending 2024 at 104 and expected to reduce by ~45 in 2025. - The Utah acquisition had limited control in Q4 2024 due to integration, but Midland margin per barrel was close to the anticipated level for Uinta.
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Segment performance

No detailed financial performance for product segments with absolute revenue and contribution % provided in the transcript.

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Guidance

  • 2025 plan expects a 40% increase in free cash flow, supported by 30% oil production growth and aiming for 1 times leverage by H2 2025. - 2026 expected to be about return of capital to stockholders with flat to single-digit production growth, depending on commodity prices. - 2025 BOE range with 51%-52% oil percentage, production to grow through Q3 2025 then level off in Q4.
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Risks

  • Takeaway constraints in Q4 2024 due to refinery downtime in Salt Lake City and rail delays, affecting sales timing. - Uncertainty around non-op spending later in 2025, dependent on commodity prices and economics. - Volatility in commodity prices impacting non-op spending and activity levels.
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Q&A highlights

Q: Speak to first quarter guidance, production drop, and rail delay resolution A: Production drop in Q1 due to dropping a South Texas frac crew in Q4 2024, crew restarted in Jan 2025, production to grow through Q3.

Q: 40% increase in drilling inventory, breakdown by area A: Uinta acquisition contributed to inventory growth, inventory is conservative and detailed in database.

Q: Full-year guidance range for 2025, production trajectory A: BOE range with 51%-52% oil percentage, production grows through Q3 then levels off in Q4, timing related.

Q: Transport delays in Q4, one-off or ongoing A: Takeaway constraints in Q4 due to refinery downtime and rail delays, building flexibility in railcar and storage.

Q: Non-op spending in 2025 A: Non-op spending not coded in budget, back-end weighted, dependent on commodity prices and economics.

Q: Drilling vs completion activity mismatch in 2025 A: DUC count outcome of activity, 2025 net drilling completes expected to reduce DUC count by ~45, not managing to DUC count.

Q: Well productivity in Uinta A: Upper cube has lower rate but shallower decline, lower cube creating value, tests ongoing in upper cube.

Q: Capital allocation and DUC drawdown A: Capital allocation flexible between regions based on commodity prices, DUCs outcome of activity, not managed to.

Q: Reserves and Midland activity A: Midland reserves decrease due to slowing activity, Utah reserves managed like other assets with additions and infills.

Q: Repurchases and leverage A: Prioritizing free cash flow to get balance sheet strong, then return of capital, similar cadence to 2023.

Q: Uinta oil differentials A: Working on improving oil differentials, opportunities exist, will see in realizations over time.

Q: Permian opportunities (Klondike, Woodford Barnett) A: Strong returns in Permian assets, Klondike and Woodford Barnett performing well, competitive for capital.

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Key numbers

Reported versus consensus

Earnings calendar feed

MetricReportedConsensusDeltaPrior year
EPS$1.91$2.00-4.5%$1.59
Revenue$835.9M$849.4M-1.6%$606.9M

Transcript

February 19, 2025

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Prior quarters

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