Nutrien Ltd. Q1 FY2026 earnings call

• Ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer and energy markets, but Nutrien's strategic priorities and full-year guidance unchanged. • Focus on operational excellence, increased upstream sales volumes, strong downstream retail performance. • In potash, record sales volume, increased production from low-cost six-mine network, mine automation. • In nitrogen, 92% ammonia operating rate, upgraded nitrogen product sales volumes. • In retail, well-positioned to meet crop input demand, executed growth initiatives including tuck-in acquisition. • Reviewing strategic alternatives for phosphate business, evaluating options for Trinidad nitrogen operations, reviewing Brazilian business including sales process for soybean seed business.

Potash: Record sales volume of over 3.5 million tons in the quarter, adjusted EBITDA of $578 million, annual sales volume guidance 14.1 - 14.7 million tons. Nitrogen: Ammonia operating rate 92% in Q1, adjusted EBITDA $482 million, annual sales volume guidance 9.2 - 9.7 million tons. Retail: Adjusted EBITDA $108 million in Q1, full-year guidance $1.75 - $1.95 billion. Phosphate: Adjusted EBITDA $57 million in Q1, higher sulfur input costs pressured margins, sales volume guidance unchanged but further pressure expected in Q2.

• Full-year adjusted EBITDA ranges remain unchanged. • Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance $1.75 - $1.95 billion. • Potash annual sales volume guidance 14.1 - 14.7 million tons. • Nitrogen annual sales volume guidance 9.2 - 9.7 million tons. • Capital expenditures guidance $2 - $2.1 billion. • Intend to continue share repurchases at ~$55 million per month. • Expect free cash flow supported by tight fertilizer supply and demand fundamentals, business improvement, organic growth, and portfolio optimization.

• Middle East conflict impacting nitrogen and phosphate supply, feedstock cost and availability. • Elevated natural gas costs and reduced LNG availability impacting nitrogen production and costs. • Higher sulfur and ammonia input costs pressuring phosphate margins. • Potential uneven normalization of nitrogen and phosphate supply. • Uncertainty regarding infrastructure damage and restart of idled production assets in the Middle East.

Q: Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets asked about longer-term implications of Iran war and Strait closure, countries building inventories.

A: Discussed three time horizons for normalization, impact on trade, production startup, infrastructure damage.

Q: Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley asked about retail performance.

A: Corn and soybean prices tailwinds, strong customer engagement, maintained acreage ranges.

Q: Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets asked about outlook and retail EBITDA guide.

A: Feeling better than start of year, potash and nitrogen constructive, retail guidance maintained.

Q: Hamir Patel from CIBC Capital Market asked about Brazil soybean seed business.

A: Pursuing sale, focus on Brazil's broader business, intend to conclude plan by end of year.

Q: Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank asked about freight logistics and cost inflation.

A: Freight costs offset by price increases, watching fuel and shipping costs, supply-demand fundamentals at play.

Q: Chris Parkinson from Wolf Research asked about global potash markets.

A: Strong shipments, low inventories, confident in 74 - 77 million tons guidance.

Q: Steve Hansen from Raymond James asked about operational flex in potash.

A: Confident in ability to flex production and inventory to meet customer needs.

Q: Duffy Fisher from Goldman Sachs asked about strategic reviews for phosphate and Trinidad.

A: Testing market, interest in assets, potential gas development impact.

Q: Jeff Zikauskas from JP Morgan asked about ammonia prices.

A: Diversified nitrogen business, good cost position in North America.

Q: Ben Thurer from Barclays asked about weather impact on South America.

A: No major concerns from El Nino, Australia in better moisture.

Q: Edlaine Rodriguez from Missoula asked about farmers lowering fertilizer costs.

A: Not seeing in nitrogen and potash, active spring, strong grower engagement.

Q: Mike Season from Wells Fargo asked about nitrogen urea prices.

A: Watched signposts for normalization, potential elevated prices into future.

Q: Lucas Beaumont from UBS asked about retail inventory refill.

A: Well set up for spring, confident in production and distribution.

Q: Mazahir Mamadli from Rothschild & Co, Redburn asked about Trinidad nitrogen restart.

A: In sales process, gas and port challenges.

Q: Lawrence Alexander from Jefferies asked about sulfur cost sensitivity and Strait closure.

A: Sensitivity of phosphate business to sulfur costs, industry adjustment uncertain