Nutrien Ltd. Q4 FY2025 earnings call

• 2025 results reflect strong execution of 3-year plan with higher earnings, free cash flow, lower net debt, increased cash to shareholders. • Outlined portfolio simplification efforts, divested noncore assets, generated $900 million in proceeds. • 2026 outlook: constructive fundamentals for business, potash demand projected to grow, nitrogen markets influenced by supply issues, phosphate expects reliability benefits, retail adjusted EBITDA guidance $1.75 - $1.95 billion. • Capital allocation priorities: capital expenditures $2 - $2.1 billion, dividend raised for 8th consecutive year, authorized share repurchase up to 5% of outstanding common shares

In 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $6.05 billion, up 13% from prior year. Fertilizer sales volumes were record 27.5 million tonnes. Potash: sales volume 14.1 - 14.8 million tonnes, controllable cash cost averaged $58 per tonne, 49% mine automation. Nitrogen: sales volumes 10.9 million tonnes, ammonia operating rates improved. Phosphate: operating rate averaged 87% in second half, within guidance range. Downstream retail adjusted EBITDA $1.74 billion through cost reductions, etc. Revenue contribution: potash, nitrogen, phosphate, retail each contributed based on their financials

• 2026 potash sales volume guidance 14.1 - 14.8 million tonnes, controllable cash cost per tonne at or below $60. • Nitrogen sales volumes guidance 9.2 - 9.7 million tonnes, assumes no production from Trinidad and New Madrid. • Phosphate sales volumes guidance 2.4 - 2.6 million tonnes. • Retail adjusted EBITDA $1.75 - $1.95 billion, midpoint underpinned by several factors

• Geopolitical volatility impacting business. • Weather conditions affecting fertilizer application and inventories. • Inflationary environment impacting costs. • Uncertainty regarding Trinidad nitrogen operations and gas supply. • Challenges in Brazilian retail business performance meeting financial thresholds

Q: Bridge retail guidance difference, A: Main driver was modestly better macro fundamentals not met, took cost reduction actions like restructuring, closing underperforming assets, etc.

Q: Potash demand dynamics, A: Projected 74 - 77 million tonnes, shipments equal to consumption, low inventories in regions like China and Brazil, good prices.

Q: Potash brownfield capacity, A: Six mines provide understanding of next tonne, can expand volumes with low capital, benefit from mine automation.

Q: Brazil retail expectations, A: Modest improvement expected, ongoing assessment of presence, changes in operation likely.

Q: Proprietary product mix, A: Growth aspirations, introducing 26 new products in 2026, growing internationally.

Q: North America crop nutrient volumes, A: Mid-single-digit growth, balanced fertilizer mix, working capital build to be released.

Q: Phosphate strategic review, A: Still in review, market testing to gauge interest, considering revised operations and sale.

Q: Potash costs, A: Goal to keep controllable cash cost per tonne at or below $60, benefit from mine automation.

Q: Trinidad asset and retail seed sales, A: Uncertainty with Trinidad gas supply, retail seed sales affected by strategic choices and weather.

Q: Potash price concerns, A: Different from phosphate, balanced market with demand growth and some new supply, stable prices.

Q: Brazil retail strategic value, A: Reviewing seeds business, seeing opportunity in proprietary products, struggling with retail presence.

Q: U.S. retail ag chem generics, A: Seeing some pressure, but confident in proprietary products range.

Q: Capital allocation share buyback, A: Board authorized 5% share repurchase, ratable repurchases to continue.

Q: Inventory build, A: Weather and proprietary product inventory led to build, implications for first quarter.

Q: EBITDA sensitivity, A: Volume and price drivers for potash and nitrogen, constructive across board.

Q: LNG Canada impact on gas prices, A: Structural advantage in North America persists, LNG Canada may flatten but North America still advantaged