Nutrien Ltd. Q3 FY2025 earnings call

• Through the first 9 months of 2025, Nutrien delivered structural earnings growth through record upstream fertilizer sales volumes, improved reliability and higher retail earnings.
• Raised 2025 potash sales volumes guidance range for the second time and maintained midpoint of retail adjusted EBITDA guidance.
• At June 2024 Investor Day, communicated strategic objectives and targets, with significant progress made towards achieving them.
• Upstream: Increased fertilizer sales volumes by ~750,000 tonnes compared to same period last year; potash delivered record sales volumes in first 9 months, with over 40% of ore tonnes cut with automation; nitrogen achieved 94% ammonia utilization rate, up 7 percentage points from prior year.
• Downstream Retail: Delivered 5% higher adjusted EBITDA in first 9 months by driving down expenses and growing proprietary product gross margin; on track to achieve $200 million cost reduction target 1 year ahead of schedule, with 5% reduction in SG&A expenses through first 9 months of 2025; lowered capital expenditures by 10% year-to-date through optimization efforts.
• Announced completion or agreements in place for divestiture of several noncore assets, expected to generate ~$900 million in gross proceeds; initiated review of strategic alternatives for Phosphate business; completed controlled shutdown of Trinidad Nitrogen operations due to uncertainty with port access and gas supply.

Potash

• Third quarter adjusted EBITDA: $733 million, higher than prior year due to higher net selling prices. Year-to-date controllable cash cost of product manufactured: $57 per tonne (slightly higher than prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs). Full year potash sales volume guidance: 14 million to 14.5 million tonnes, supported by strong offshore demand.

Nitrogen

• Third quarter adjusted EBITDA: $556 million, increase compared to prior year due to higher net selling prices and higher sales volumes. Ammonia utilization rate through first 9 months: 94% (up 7 percentage points from previous year). Nitrogen sales volume guidance range: 10.7 million to 11 million tonnes, reflecting no additional sales volumes from Trinidad operations for the remainder of the year.

Phosphate

• Third quarter adjusted EBITDA: $122 million, as higher net selling prices and sales volumes more than offset increased sulfur costs. Operating rate in third quarter: 88%.

Downstream Retail

• Third quarter adjusted EBITDA: $230 million, up 52% from prior year. Full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1.68 billion to $1.82 billion, reflecting stability and execution of strategic growth initiatives in 2025.

• Full year potash sales volume guidance raised to 14 million to 14.5 million tonnes.
• Nitrogen sales volume guidance range: 10.7 million to 11 million tonnes, reflecting no additional sales volumes from Trinidad operations for the remainder of the year.
• Full year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $1.68 billion to $1.82 billion.
• Anticipate repurchasing shares at a rate of approximately $45 million per month on a full year basis.
• Expect to meaningfully lower net debt position by year-end and gain greater flexibility to allocate capital through the cycle.

• Uncertainty with respect to port access and lack of reliable and economic gas supply impacting Trinidad operations.
• Risks associated with the strategic review of the Phosphate business, including potential execution risks of reconfiguring operations, forming strategic partnerships, or potential sale.
• Potential market demand deferral impacts on phosphate and potash, as mentioned by competitors.