Jumia Technologies AG Q2 FY2026 earnings call

• Core Business Strategy & Profitability Progress

  • Management remains focused on the previously stated path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven, and deliberately prioritized protecting margins over chasing GMV growth during a quarter of external headwinds
  • Continued the strategic shift from first-party to third-party marketplace sales: first-party sales represented 10.6% of total GMV in Q2 2026, down from 13.1% in Q2 2025, aligning with higher-margin monetization
  • Secured a $50 million capital raise anchored by a $25 million investment from IFC, with participation from existing major shareholder Axion and selected new institutional investors

• Operational & Usage Metrics

  • Adjusted for perimeter effects, GMV grew 23% YoY, physical goods orders grew 28% YoY, and quarterly active customers grew 23% YoY; 90-day repeat purchase rate for Q1 2026 new customers improved to 44% from 42% a year prior
  • Gross profit expanded 28% YoY to $30.7 million, with gross profit margin as a percentage of GMV increasing 92 bps to 14.2%, driven by category mix shift, January 2026 commission increases, and growth in high-margin advertising and value-added services
  • Gross profit per physical goods order increased to $4.9 from $4.8 YoY, despite an average order value decrease to $34.6 from $36.3 YoY (a decline driven by the mix shift to lower AOV, higher take rate categories)
  • Fulfillment cost per physical goods order decreased 7% YoY reported (4% YoY constant currency) to $2.04, driven by scale economies, automation, and improved logistics partner rates; the improvement was partially offset by temporary fuel surcharges and one-time fulfillment headcount termination costs
  • Quarterly active sellers grew 20% YoY, with 5.8 million gross items sourced internationally (up 96% YoY adjusted for perimeter), driven by scaling Chinese and Turkish seller bases
  • Upcountry (non-urban) orders now account for 61% of total volume, up from 59% last quarter, with 75% of all packages fulfilled via pickup stations (up from 71% YoY), reducing last-mile cost exposure
  • Total headcount reduced 11% since March 31 2026 to 1,770 employees, down from 4,318 when current leadership took over in Q4 2022; AI automation is driving further headcount efficiency while also improving service quality

• Profitability Results

  • Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 36% YoY to $8.7 million (from $13.6 million in Q2 2025)
  • Loss before income tax improved 33% YoY to $10.9 million
  • Quarterly cash burn was $14.3 million, compared to $15.3 million in Q1 2026

Jumia reports revenue broken into core business segments for Q2 2026: 1) Marketplace Revenue: Totaled $28.8 million, up 34% year-over-year (36% constant currency). Third-party sales within marketplace reached $23.5 million, up 26% year-over-year (29% constant currency), driven by strong usage and higher effective take rates. 2) Marketing and Advertising Revenue: Totaled $3.5 million, up 88% year-over-year (87% constant currency), currently representing 1.6% of total GMV, with seller adoption reaching 26% (up from 19% YoY). 3) Value-Added Services Revenue: Totaled $1.9 million, up 61% year-over-year (66% constant currency), driven by growing warehousing fees from Chinese seller volume and improved monetization of storage infrastructure. 4) First-Party Revenue: Totaled $22.8 million, down 3% year-over-year (4% constant currency), impacted by supply and demand headwinds in high-value electronics, consistent with the strategic shift to higher-margin third-party marketplace. Overall total revenue for the quarter was $52 million, up 14% year-over-year (15% constant currency). By category, Fashion, Beauty, Home & Living grew strongly, while Phones & Electronics was negatively impacted by supply chain disruptions. By geography: Nigeria +36% YoY physical goods GMV, Kenya +23% YoY, Ivory Coast -1% YoY, Egypt +45% YoY (50% excluding deprioritized corporate sales), Ghana +77% YoY, other markets collectively +3% YoY.

• Management maintained all previously stated adjusted EBITDA and cash flow targets, while revising the full-year 2026 GMV growth guidance range downward to 20-30% YoY (adjusted for perimeter effects), reflecting ongoing headwinds in high-value electronics categories
• Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is maintained at a loss of $25 million to $30 million, unchanged from prior targets
• Management reconfirms the strategic target of achieving adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow in Q4 2026, and full-year adjusted EBITDA profitability and positive cash flow in 2027
• Q3 2026 GMV growth is projected to be 15-25% YoY (adjusted for perimeter effects)

• Ongoing supply chain disruptions for memory chips and CPUs have constrained entry-level smartphone supply, a high-demand category across Jumia's markets; disruptions persisted into early Q3 2026, with prices remaining elevated
• Air freight disruptions from Middle East geopolitical conflict, combined with broad global oil price increases, drove temporary fuel surcharges from local logistics partners that negatively impacted Q2 fulfillment costs
• Declining cocoa farmgate prices reduced consumer purchasing power in upcountry regions of Ivory Coast, dampening near-term demand
• Broad tax reform in Ivory Coast created short-term friction for the local vendor base, impacting operations
• Macroeconomic volatility across African markets creates uncertainty around consumer demand and input costs
• The majority of Jumia's GMV impact from the 2026 guidance downward revision is concentrated entirely in the phones and electronics category, which is exposed to global semiconductor supply volatility outside of management's control

Q: What duration assumptions for current headwinds are embedded in guidance, and why was the $50 million capital raise done now — was it a necessity to hit Q4 breakeven, or just balance sheet strengthening? / A: Management cannot make firm assumptions on when headwinds will normalize, as most factors (fuel prices, semiconductor supply) are outside of the company's control. Some improvement was seen in May-June, but clear headwinds remain for Q3, hence the broader GMV growth range in guidance. The adjusted EBITDA target is unchanged because the business model is resilient: gross profit does not move 1:1 with GMV, and efficiency gains offset top-line pressure. For the capital raise, Jumia did not need additional cash to reach breakeven, and the core plan remains unchanged. The timing was driven by the opportunity to add IFC as an anchor investor, which brings significant institutional credibility, regulatory access, and validation of the Jumia model in Africa. The $50 million raise strengthens the balance sheet amid higher global volatility, allows for targeted growth investments, and avoids excessive shareholder dilution.

Q: Why was GMV guidance lowered but profitability targets held? Where is growth strongest, and what is the advertising product roadmap and long-term GMV penetration target? / A: GMV is primarily dragged down by supply headwinds in low-margin phones/electronics, while strong growth in lower-AOV, higher-take-rate categories (Home & Living, Fashion, Beauty, Kids) is supporting gross profit growth. Take rates in these categories are multiple times higher than the 4-6% take rate for smartphones, driving gross profit margin expansion. Management remains maniacal about cost efficiency: fulfillment unit costs are still down 7% YoY even with fuel surcharges, headcount reduction targets have been over-delivered and front-loaded to capture full cost benefits in the second half, creating a buffer against external shocks. For advertising, core growth drivers are expanding the product portfolio (recently launching sponsored brands for category/search page display advertising, in addition to core sponsored products) and increasing seller adoption (currently 26% of sellers, up from 19% YoY, with significant remaining headroom). Management prioritizes high return on ad spend for sellers to drive activation over near-term yield, and targets 2% of GMV as long-term advertising revenue penetration, which is achievable in the medium term.

Q: Is the entire GMV guidance reduction from electronics/phones? How much of the recent take rate improvement is structural versus mix shift? How has the competitive environment changed? / A: It is a fair assumption that the entire GMV guidance reduction is driven by headwinds in phones and electronics. All take rate increases were implemented across the board in mid-January 2026 (Q1), with no changes in Q2. The YoY take rate improvement reflects the full-year impact of the January commission increases, a measurable contribution from category mix shift, and growth in high-margin advertising and logistics services. Sequential (quarter-over-quarter) improvement also reflects that the January commission increases were implemented mid-quarter, so Q1 only captured ~70% of the full impact. For competition, there has been no meaningful change from local African competitors. In Egypt, larger competitors are focused on quick commerce and groceries in major urban centers, while Jumia focuses on lower-middle-income consumers in smaller, underserved cities, so the two are targeting different segments. Cross-border platforms like TEMU have seen some traffic increase in Nigeria, but that has already started to decline, with no material sustained impact on Jumia's performance.