Jumia Technologies AG Q4 FY2025 earnings call

2025 was a year Jumia demonstrated turning its e-commerce model for Africa into tangible results. Over the past few years, Jumia built an e-commerce model for Africa. In 2025, it showed strong operating momentum in the fourth quarter with physical goods GMV growing 38% y-o-y adjusted. Usage trends were strong, with quarterly active customers up 26% y-o-y. Repeat behavior improved. Revenue was up due to higher usage and improved monetization. There were cost improvements in general and administrative, technology, and fulfillment. Headcount declined 7% in 2025. At the country level, Nigeria, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ghana, and other markets had strong performances. Jumia announced the cease of operations in Algeria.

Physical goods GMV grew 38% year-over-year, adjusted for perimeter effects. Adjusted for perimeter effects, physical goods orders grew 32% year-over-year. Revenue totaled $61.4 million, up 34% year-over-year. First-party sales represented 49% of total revenue. Fulfillment cost per order improved to $1.97, a 12% year-over-year reduction. Technology and content expenses declined 6% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $7.3 million from $13.7 million in the prior year quarter.

For the full year of 2026, Jumia anticipates GMV to grow between 27% and 32% year-over-year adjusted for perimeter effects. It expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of negative $25 million to negative $30 million. The strategic goal is to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven and positive cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2026 and deliver full year profitability and positive cash flow in 2027.

Increased regulatory scrutiny on nonresident and cross-border platforms. For example, Ivory Coast introduced a new tax on the profits of nonresident e-commerce platforms, and Ghana's VAT Amendment Act requires nonresident digital and e-commerce platforms supplying services into Ghana to register for VAT and comply with local VAT requirements.

Q: How to rank order the accelerants in 2026?

A: The most important is assortment and bringing more availability at lower price points. Second is coverage. Then marketing started playing a more important role, and improvement in quality of service is also a factor.

Q: Lead times for further investment in capacity expansion?

A: Fulfillment capacity is manageable until the end of 2026 or maybe 2027. The tech stack can handle 2 or 3 times the volumes seen in 2025 without major additional investment.

Q: Take rate expansion?

A: Gradual effect from improving commissions, and advertising monetization which is expected to accelerate.

Q: First-party, third-party corporate mix in guidance?

A: Not betting on significant corporate sales, and the mix of marketplace versus retail is expected to be pretty much stable.

Q: Exit of Algeria and other countries?

A: No new countries will be entered until breakeven is achieved. Focus is on 8 core markets, and tough decisions may still be taken on the portfolio.

Q: Balance sheet and capital?

A: No need to raise capital currently, but there could be hypothetical opportunities like pushing harder on working capital, investing more in marketing, and in tech and product if more liquidity were available.

Q: Macro and consumption dynamic for 2026?

A: Macro is stabilizing, and Egypt is expected to catch up with its growth rate.

Q: Operating leverage and marketing?

A: Need to balance user acquisition/retention and marketing efficiency while focusing on achieving EBITDA breakeven.

Q: Sourcing of supply and impact?

A: New center in Yiwu improves category exposure and helps diversify the product mix.

Q: Buy now, pay later in markets?

A: Specific to Egypt due to its ecosystem, and on a country-by-country basis in other markets.

Q: Q4 surprises and ads?

A: Advertising monetization was lower than expected, but steps have been taken to improve it.

Q: Competition dynamics?

A: Competition is relatively rational, international pressure is softening, and local regulation is creating a more level playing field.

Q: Fulfillment runway?

A: There is room for productivity improvement and scale benefits in fulfillment.

Q: GMV guidance risks?

A: No specific market risks factored in, and the guidance is realistic and balanced.

Q: Commission increase?

A: Varies by country, between 0.5 point and 1 point over GMV ballpark.