Cresud S.A. Warrant 2021-08.03.26 on Cresud
Cresud S.A. Warrant 2021-08.03.26 on Cresud Q2 FY2024 earnings call
February 9, 2024 · fiscal period ended 2023-12
EPS · actual vs est
Revenue · actual vs est
Summary
Generated 2024-02-09
Management highlights
- Regional campaign progress: Argentina has better climate conditions with recovering soil moisture, expecting a good winter campaign for soybean and corn; BrasilAgro affected by climate and crop price valuations. - Farm sales: 2 sales in Argentina in 6 months, e.g., selling a small portion of Los Pozos and El Tigre farms with good internal rates of return. - Accounting results: ARS 22,000 million gain from better agriculture (crops and farm sales) and urban (operational and fair value of investment properties). - Dividend distribution: Approved and paid dividend after some time. - Exchange rate impact: Big change after Milei's entry affecting farmers' margins. - Commodity prices: Soybean and corn prices dropped, input costs still high. - Planted area: Expect to plant 282,000 hectares, similar to previous campaign size. - Climate conditions: Better in Argentina than previous campaign, progress in crop planting. - Real estate transactions: Details of selling portions of farms and related buyback of other lands. - FyO development: Expanding regionally, expecting good results. - IRSA business: Strong hotel EBITDA, slight office occupancy improvement, real estate transactions and Trust details.
Segment performance
In Argentina, agricultural performance is expected to be better due to normal or Nino campaign climate conditions, with better yields and margins. This year, 2 farm sales in Argentina brought an ARS 22,000 million gain, including ARS 722 million gain from the sale of a small portion of Los Pozos farm. BrasilAgro has lower productive results and affected margins due to climate and lower crop valuations. FyO, the largest agricultural service commercial company in Argentina, is expected to have 7 million tons or more next year with a market share close to 6% of Argentina's total crop and a budgeted EBITDA of $27 million. IRSA's real estate business has strong hotel EBITDA, slight improvement in office occupancy, and various real estate transactions.
Guidance
- Argentina agriculture: Expect a better than average campaign with good volumes and margins. - FyO: Expect good results next year with 7 million or more tons and close to 6% market share. - IRSA: In dollar terms, may keep growing; in pesos term, tenant sales may grow lower than inflation in coming quarters.
Risks
- Commodity price volatility risk. - Climate conditions uncertainty risk. - Exchange rate fluctuation risk affecting debt valuation and asset valuations. - Government policy change risk on exports, land ownership, etc.
Q&A highlights
Q: Related to the campaign, which are the perspective for the campaign, if you can give a little bit more color on that. And the recent measures of Milei, and the one that he plans to take, how that could affect or impact in the agri business in general and particularly in Argentina.
A: Related to the campaign, expect a good campaign in Argentina with better than average year. Milei's measures may connect Argentina to the world, potentially better for farmers in long term but uncertainty on next steps.
Q: Question related to a little bit what we have already talked Alejandro, the impact of the rejected of reform bill on Cresud and IRSA.
A: Affected was increase in taxes on exports, small negative, but Milei's measures may be better for farmers and economy in long term.
Q: Additional question regarding the FX. How do you think it will affect or at the end, if they liberate all the gap between the FX and there's a new FV effect and only one for Cresud.
A: Having one exchange rate for farmers is positive; normalization positive for farming industry; debt paid at official rate, hedged against FX changes.
Key numbers
Reported versus consensus
Earnings calendar feed
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Delta | Prior year |
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| EPS | — | — | — | — |
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Transcript
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