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Cresud S.A. Warrant 2021-08.03.26 on Cresud

Cresud S.A. Warrant 2021-08.03.26 on Cresud Q3 FY2025 earnings call

May 12, 2025 · fiscal period ended 2025-03

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Summary

Generated 2025-05-12

Management highlights

  • Agriculture: Good campaign compared to last year with bigger planted area. Climate had mixed conditions, some droughts impacted yields. Commodity prices stable, capital controls removal impacting Argentine results, BrasilAgro had productive results in sugarcane with mixed yields in other crops.
  • IRSA: Mall segment recovery in tenant sales, office occupancy stable, hotel occupancy down, commercialization of properties ongoing, debt issuance, financial results of Cresud affected by dollar and inflation adjustments.
  • FyO: Brokerage activity seasonality, EBITDA forecast positive, volume and prices expected to improve in coming quarters.
  • Real Estate in Argentina: Optimistic on farmland prices due to government measures, planning to buy more land in Argentina, Brazil land prices high, looking for opportunities in debt situations.
View in transcript ↓

Segment performance

Agriculture: Planted area in Argentina is the largest in the region, with Brazil growing leasing. Climate had mixed conditions, with droughts in Argentina North and Paraguay affecting summer crop yields. Commodity prices stable, soybean showing rebound, corn rebounded. Yield forecasts: 23% increase regionally, Argentina expected to have a 2% increase in yields, Brazil a 1% decrease in soybeans, Bolivia and Paraguay seeing decreases. Sugarcane had better yields and prices. Cattle production up 24% with good margins. FyO: Forecasted over 7 million tons, 6.7% market share in Argentina, EBITDA positive, doubling year-over-year in Brazil. Real Estate (IRSA): 9-month profit ARS 35 billion, mall tenant sales up 13.4% Y/Y but down 4.6% YTD, office occupancy 100%, hotel occupancy down due to tourism decline, commercialization progress, debt issuance, rental adjusted EBITDA record high for malls in dollar terms.

View in transcript ↓

Guidance

  • Agriculture: Forecast 23% yield increase regionally, expecting a more normal agriculture year with good sugarcane, some good in corn but less good in soybeans and cotton.
  • FyO: Forecast positive EBITDA, volume and prices expected to improve in coming quarters.
  • Real Estate: Optimistic on Argentina farmland prices, planning to buy more land in Argentina, looking for Brazil opportunities in debt situations where prices are high but looking for crisis-driven opportunities.
View in transcript ↓

Risks

  • Climate: Droughts in Argentina North and Paraguay impacted summer crop yields.
  • Commodity Prices: Volatility in international markets, potential impact of macroeconomic changes in Argentina.
  • Debt: $200 million maturity next year, need to manage refinancing.
  • Tourism: Impact on IRSA hotel occupancy due to reduced tourism in Argentina.
View in transcript ↓

Q&A highlights

Q: Plans to distribute dividends?

A: The decision will be taken on October. Our shareholders' meeting will be in October, we have to submit the proposal around September, so it's not decided yet.

Q: Sub-transactions at IRSA, how it works and motivation?

A: Entered in details about Ramblas in IRSA's webcast. Motivation is to give speed to the project, giving land to developers who develop and pay with square meters in the future without investing own money.

Q: Long-term intention with IRSA ownership?

A: It's a controlling shareholder, no big changes planned in the days ahead. We like the position we have, with complements between agriculture activity and IRSA's activity and a hedge between the two.

Q: FyO results negative, explain and dividend policy?

A: Some seasonality, reexpression of dollar-denominated activity into pesos adjusted by inflation, derivatives impact. At the end of the year, volume and prices expected to improve, and dividend policy decision depends on situation.

Q: Farmland prices and investments?

A: Optimistic on Argentina farmland prices due to government measures, planning to buy more land in Argentina. Brazil land prices high, looking for opportunities in debt situations where prices are high but looking for crisis-driven opportunities.

Q: Capital allocation if selling farms?

A: Depending on situation, swap funds, buy back shares if cheap compared to net asset value, invest in new farms, rotate land for profitability in agriculture.

Q: How to deal with $200 million maturity next year?

A: Refinancing short-term debt, local market more likely for refinancing. We have a warrant outstanding expiring next February, likely to receive proceeds from it.

View in transcript ↓

Key numbers

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Transcript

May 12, 2025

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