WMT: FY26 Deep Dive
FY26 closed January 31 at $713B total revenue (+4.7%). Operating margin expanded 30bp to 4.2%, FCF $14.9B, and consensus Street coverage is the tightest in mega-cap — 19 of 20 analysts on Buy, median PT $140 in a $20 range.
Key Takeaways
Walmart closed fiscal 2026 (year ended January 31, 2026) at $713.2 billion of total revenue, up 4.7% year-over-year — the largest revenue base in US retail and one that continues to expand at steady mid-single-digit rates across all three segments. Walmart US (the largest segment) grew 4.4% to $485.6 billion; Walmart International led the growth rate at +7.0% to $132.0 billion; Sam's Club added 3.2% to $95.5 billion. Operating margin expanded modestly to 4.2% of net sales, operating income reached $29.8 billion, and free cash flow held at $14.9 billion on $26.6 billion of capex (automated fulfillment build-out + supply chain modernization). The company returned $15.6 billion to shareholders — $8.1 billion in buybacks plus $7.5 billion in dividends — and the quarterly dividend was raised for the 51st consecutive year. Sell-side coverage is the tightest among US mega-caps: 20 analysts, 19 Buy / 1 Hold, median price target $140.85 in a narrow $130-$150 range with no Sells and all four recent covered actions bullish.
Main business structure
Three reporting segments, each with distinct growth and margin profile:
| Segment | FY26 Revenue ($M) | % of Total | FY25 ($M) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. | 485,599 | 68.1% | 465,009 | +4.4% |
| Walmart International | 131,988 | 18.5% | 123,363 | +7.0% |
| Sam's Club U.S. | 95,540 | 13.4% | 92,561 | +3.2% |
| Corporate and support | 36 | — | 52 | — |
| Total Revenue | 713,163 | 100% | 680,985 | +4.7% |
Net sales were $706.4 billion; the other $6.75 billion comes from membership and other income, of which $2.5 billion is Sam's Club membership fees and the balance is advertising (Walmart Connect) and financial services income. Membership/other income grew roughly 9% YoY, outpacing merchandise sales — a small line but margin-accretive.
Walmart US operates >4,600 retail units in the US plus digital fulfillment infrastructure. The underlying drivers: grocery (~60% of US segment sales) is stable mid-single-digit growth; general merchandise cycled through elevated discretionary pressure in FY24-FY25 and showed recovery in FY26; health / wellness and e-commerce are the margin-lift lines.
Walmart International operates primarily in Mexico (Walmex), Canada, Central America, Chile, and India (Flipkart + PhonePe consolidation). Growth rate (+7%) reflects both FX tailwinds and real volume growth, particularly in Mexico and India.
Sam's Club is the membership-based warehouse club. FY26 Sam's Club US member count crossed 60 million; membership fees grew ~9%. Club-level comp sales +3% reflected the macroeconomic sensitivity of this channel (higher-ticket discretionary items were softer).
Geographic mix. By consolidated revenue: US ~82% (Walmart US + Sam's), international ~18%. Walmart International is diversified across Mexico ~45% of segment revenue, Canada ~15%, India ~12%, balance across Central / South America.
Customer concentration. As the world's largest retailer serving hundreds of millions of customers, no single customer disclosure is triggered.
Scale anchors. >10,600 stores globally across Walmart, Sam's Club, and international banners. >255 million weekly customer visits globally. E-commerce penetration approaches 18-20% of US segment sales. Walmart+ membership (separate from Sam's Club) now crosses 25 million members. Walmart Connect advertising platform is a low-disclosed but fast-growing revenue line.
Key core metrics (3-year trend)
1. Total revenue growth
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue ($B) | 648.1 | 681.0 | 713.2 |
| YoY | +6.0% | +5.1% | +4.7% |
Mid-single-digit growth remarkably consistent across cycles. FY26's +4.7% reflects cooler inflation pass-through than FY24 but real unit growth in the low-to-mid single digits.
2. Operating margin
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OI ($B) | 27.0 | 29.3 | 29.8 |
| OpMargin | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
Operating margin has held in a narrow 4.0-4.3% band for several years. The mix shift toward higher-margin advertising (Walmart Connect) and membership income is a stated management priority; the offset has been elevated wage and fulfillment investment.
3. Free cash flow
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCF ($B) | 35.7 | 36.4 | 41.6 |
| Capex ($B) | 20.6 | 23.8 | 26.6 |
| FCF ($B) | 15.1 | 12.7 | 14.9 |
Capex stepped up each year (supply chain automation, refrigeration upgrades, e-commerce infrastructure). FCF recovery in FY26 driven by operating cash flow expansion outpacing the continued capex build. FCF margin ~2.1% — the capital intensity of physical retail at scale.
4. Capital return
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buybacks ($B) | 4.4 | 4.5 | 8.1 |
| Dividends ($B) | 6.7 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| Total return ($B) | 11.1 | 11.9 | 15.6 |
Buybacks stepped up materially in FY26 (+80% YoY) — the largest proportional buyback acceleration among US mega-caps this year. Dividends were raised for the 51st consecutive year (Walmart is a Dividend King, one of a handful of US stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend growth).
Market evaluation
Sell-side coverage (as of late April 2026). 20 analysts cover the stock.
| Rating | Count |
|---|---|
| Buy | 19 |
| Hold | 1 |
| Sell | 0 |
Price targets. Median $140.85, range $130 (low) to $150 (high: BofA Securities, Tigress Financial). The $20 spread is the tightest sell-side dispersion among US mega-caps — roughly 14% of the midpoint, versus 50%+ spreads typical for AVGO and 100%+ for TSLA.
Recent analyst activity (Feb 24 through April 24, 2026). Only 4 covered events in the 60-day window, all bullish:
- Morgan Stanley (Simeon Gutman): PT $135 → $140 on April 22 (OW maintained)
- Guggenheim (John Heinbockel): PT $120 → $137 on April 13 (Buy maintained, $17 raise — largest in window)
- BofA Securities: reinstated coverage at Buy with $150 PT on February 27
- Tigress Financial (Ivan Feinseth): PT $135 → $150 on February 25 (Buy maintained)
No downgrades or PT cuts in the window. Tight dispersion, unanimous direction.
Buy-side positioning. Walmart is a core defensive mega-cap holding. Relative positioning vs COST: Walmart is the broader-exposure name (grocery + discretionary + international); COST is the narrower high-ticket / membership-model play. Short interest consistently below 1% of float.
FY26 corporate structure: the quiet compounding story
FY26 has no single defining event — which is itself the point. The structural features that define Walmart's investment narrative compound quietly: 51 years of consecutive dividend increases, mid-single-digit top-line growth at the world's largest revenue scale, operating margin holding steady through periods of wage inflation and fulfillment investment, and advertising / membership income growing faster than merchandise. The two features worth flagging explicitly: buyback acceleration (FY26 was a +$3.6 billion step-up over the prior two years' combined pace, suggesting management views the stock as inexpensive), and Walmart Connect advertising (not separately disclosed but inferable from membership-and-other-income growth, now estimated to be $4-5 billion annualized and growing faster than any Walmart US sub-line). The sell-side's extreme consensus on ratings (19 of 20 Buy) reflects a thesis that has been largely un-disputed for a decade and — unlike most mega-caps where that kind of consensus signals crowded-long risk — still produces fresh PT raises in a year where the only structural story was steady quarterly execution.