OLLI Stock Research, Signals & Filings

Drillr aggregates AI research, SEC filings, earnings signals, alt-data and financial tables for OLLI. 8 published articles.

Latest Research

  1. Ollie's Hits 559 Stores With 17% Revenue Growth — The Expansion Playbook Is Working

    Ollie's Bargain Outlet reached 559 stores at the end of FY2024 and has since accelerated its expansion to 645 locations by Q3 FY2025, driving 17-19% quarterly revenue growth with stable margins. The company's low-cost unit economics — $1M investment per store with $4M first-year sales and a two-year payback — support a long runway toward its 1,300+ store target.

  2. Off-Price Retail Scorecard: Ranking OLLI, FIVE, BURL, TJX, and ROST on Growth and Margins

    TJX leads the off-price retail group with 12% operating margins and 54% ROE, while Ollie's offers the best value at 23x forward P/E with double-digit revenue growth. Five Below commands the richest valuation despite the weakest earnings track record, making it the least attractive risk/reward in the group.

    FIVEBURLTJX

  3. How do TJX and Ross's margins compare to Ollie's and Burlington as the off-price sector matures?

    Burlington and Ollie's carry significantly higher gross margins (41.9% and 40.3%) than TJX and Ross (31.1% and 27.9%), but the larger players convert more efficiently — TJX and Ross deliver 12.0% and 11.9% operating margins respectively versus Burlington's 8.9%. Ross emerges as the quiet margin leader with a best-in-class 9.7% FCF margin, while Burlington's 21.6% EBITDA growth signals the fastest margin expansion trajectory in the group.

    TJXROSTBURL

  4. Which off-price retailer has the most runway: Ollie's at 559 stores or Five Below at 1,750+?

    Ollie's Bargain Outlet has the most store growth runway among off-price retailers, with ~133% unit growth potential from 559 to 1,300+ stores, the highest operating margins (11.2%), and the cleanest balance sheet (0.37x debt/equity). Five Below has ~100% remaining growth to 3,500 stores but faces margin pressure from its Five Beyond format shift, while Burlington is the most mature with ~80% unit growth left and the highest leverage.

    FIVEBURL

  5. At what store count does Ollie's SG&A leverage inflect enough to expand operating margins?

    Ollie's SG&A as a percentage of sales has remained stuck at 26-28% despite growing from 431 to 645 stores over four years, with the leverage inflection likely occurring around 700-750 stores (late FY2026) when growth rates moderate, bankruptcy-acquired stores mature, and fixed-cost absorption accelerates — potentially pushing operating margins above 12% for the first time on a sustained basis.

    FIVE

  6. How does Ollie's gross margin compare to TJX and Burlington as closeout deal flow tightens?

    Ollie's 40.3% TTM gross margin ranks between Burlington (41.9%) and well above TJX (31.1%) and Ross (27.9%), but OLLI's quarterly margins compressed 180bps YoY in Q4 2025 while TJX expanded by 140bps. The divergence highlights OLLI's vulnerability to tightening closeout supply versus TJX's diversified sourcing model, with operating margin (10.2% vs TJX's 13.0%) further constrained by SGA deleveraging at smaller scale.

    TJXBURLROST

  7. Which regions offer the best whitespace for Ollie's next 750 stores?

    Ollie's operates 645 stores across 34 states with distribution infrastructure supporting up to 750 locations, targeting 1,300+ long-term. The Deep South (backfill), Upper Midwest (Princeton DC unlock), and Mountain West (long-term frontier) represent the highest-potential whitespace regions, supported by a capital-efficient unit model (~$1M investment, ~2-year payback) and an unprecedented bankruptcy-acquisition pipeline that delivered 63 of 86 new stores in FY2025.

    BURLTJX

  8. Can Ollie's maintain unit economics as it accelerates from 50 to 75+ stores per year?

    Ollie's opened 86 stores in the first 39 weeks of FY2025 — more than double the prior-year pace — while maintaining operating margins at 10.1% and capex per store near the $1.0M target model. SG&A leverage, declining per-store pre-opening costs, and distribution capacity to 750 stores suggest unit economics are holding through the acceleration, though pre-opening expenses as a percentage of sales have doubled and will require monitoring as annual openings push higher.

    FIVEDG

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