KO: FY25 Deep Dive
FY25 organic +5%, reported +2% to $47.9B. Volume even (0%); Q4 price/mix -3% on timing of investments. Operating margin lifted to 28.7% on lapping of FY24 fairlife / restructuring drag. Capital return $9.5B vs $5.3B GAAP FCF (179% — fairlife $6.1B milestone payment distorted reported FCF; non-GAAP FCF ex-fairlife was $11.4B).
Key Takeaways
Coca-Cola closed fiscal 2025 (calendar year ended December 31, 2025) at $47.9 billion of net operating revenues, up 2% reported / +5% organic — a typical Coke print where currency translation and refranchising netted out roughly 3 points of headline drag. Global unit case volume was even (0%) for the full year and Q4 price/mix was -3% on timing of investments and unfavorable mix — the first quarter of negative price/mix in this cycle. Operating income was $13.8 billion (28.7% operating margin), versus $10.0 billion (21.2%) in FY24 which was depressed by fairlife contingent-consideration accounting + Russia / restructuring charges; the FY25 print represents margin recovery to a more normalized 28-29% range. Net income was $13.1 billion, $3.05 EPS. Operating cash flow was $7.4 billion — but that included a $6.1 billion fairlife final-milestone payment; non-GAAP free cash flow excluding fairlife was $11.4 billion (the cleaner read on cash earning power). The company returned $9.5 billion to shareholders ($8.8B dividends + $0.7B buybacks) — buyback pace deliberately small given the fairlife cash deployment and the company's lower leverage / higher payout-ratio model. Sell-side coverage is robust: every covered action between February and April 2026 was a maintain rating, and 10 of 11 PT actions were raises (RBC +$9 and Wells Fargo +$8 the largest), pulling consensus to $86 with range $83-$90.
Main business structure
Coca-Cola reports five operating segments organized geographically:
| Segment | FY25 ($M) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| North America | 19,579 | 40.8% |
| EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa) | 10,833 | 22.6% |
| Latin America | 6,331 | 13.2% |
| Global Ventures | 5,726 | 11.9% |
| Asia Pacific | 5,328 | 11.1% |
| Bottling Investments | 144 | 0.3% |
| Corporate | — | — |
| Consolidated | 47,941 | 100% |
North America (~41% of revenue) is the largest segment — a "concentrate sales + finished goods" model where Coca-Cola sells concentrate to bottlers (CCCC, Reyes, etc.) and books concentrate revenue plus a smaller finished-goods component. North American volumes have been flat-to-slightly-down structurally with mid-single-digit price/mix offsetting.
EMEA (~23% of revenue) covers Europe, Middle East, and Africa — three quite different sub-cycles (Europe mature with mid-single-digit organic growth; Middle East / Turkey high-inflation pricing; Africa volume-led growth). Russia exposure was largely cleaned up by mid-FY24.
Latin America (~13% of revenue) is the highest-growth geographic segment historically — driven by per-capita consumption rising in Mexico (the highest per-capita Coke consumption market globally), Brazil, Argentina, and pricing dynamics in inflationary economies.
Global Ventures (~12% of revenue) is the non-traditional portfolio: Costa Coffee (acquired 2019), BodyArmor (acquired 2021), Innocent (juice / smoothies), Glaceau (Smartwater, Vitaminwater). This segment houses the diversification beyond carbonated soft drinks.
Asia Pacific (~11% of revenue) covers China, Japan, Korea, Australia / New Zealand, ASEAN, and India. Highest absolute case volume but lowest per-capita revenue — pricing dynamics here are constrained by competitive intensity and local-bottler pricing decisions.
Bottling Investments (now <1% of revenue) — Coca-Cola continues to refranchise legacy company-owned bottling operations to independent bottlers; the FY25 segment revenue near zero is a reflection of how nearly-complete this multi-year refranchising program has become.
Geographic concentration. International operations contribute roughly 60% of revenue (sum of EMEA + LATAM + APAC + Global Ventures = 59%). Europe + LATAM exposure both run ~13-14% each — meaningful but neither is dominant.
Customer concentration. Coca-Cola's direct customers are bottlers (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, Reyes Holdings, etc.) — the network is global but no single bottler exceeds 10% threshold per 10-K.
Scale anchors. ~30 billion unit cases globally per year. Brand portfolio of 200+ brands across CSD / juice / water / coffee / sports drinks. Operations in 200+ countries.
Key core metrics (3-year trend)
1. Revenue and organic growth
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue ($B) | 45.8 | 47.1 | 47.9 |
| Reported YoY | — | +3% | +2% |
| Organic growth | +12% | +12% | +5% |
| Volume (unit cases) | +2% | +1% | 0% |
| Price/mix | +10% | +11% | +5% |
Organic growth decelerated to +5% in FY25 — the lowest since the FY20 COVID year. Volume flatlined and price/mix moderated to +5%. Q4 price/mix at -3% is the most pointed concern in the FY25 print — driven by timing of marketing / promotional investments.
2. Operating margin
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income ($B) | 11.3 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| OpMargin | 24.7% | 21.2% | 28.7% |
Operating margin recovered ~750bp YoY to 28.7% — but the comparison is distorted: FY24 was depressed by fairlife contingent consideration ($760M+ charge), Russia exit charges, and restructuring. The cleaner read is that FY25 operating margin returned to a normalized ~28-29% range.
3. Free cash flow — reported vs adjusted
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating CF ($B) | 11.6 | 6.8 | 7.4 |
| Capex ($B) | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| GAAP FCF ($B) | 9.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| Adj. FCF ex-fairlife ($B) | — | — | 11.4 |
The FY24-FY25 GAAP FCF compression reflects a $6.2B fairlife contingent-consideration milestone (paid $6.1B in FY25). Excluding this, FY25 cash earnings power was $11.4B — close to the FY23 reported run-rate.
4. Capital return
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends ($B) | 8.0 | 8.4 | 8.8 |
| Dividend per share | $1.84 | $1.94 | $2.04 |
| Buybacks ($B) | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Total return ($B) | 10.2 | 10.2 | 9.5 |
Buyback pace pulled back sharply to $0.7B in FY25 — a deliberate moderation given the fairlife cash deployment. Dividend per share grew 5% to $2.04 — the 63rd consecutive annual dividend increase.
Market evaluation
Sell-side coverage (as of April 27, 2026). The covered universe is large (15+ analysts publish PTs); 11 actions in the Feb-April 2026 window. Consensus rating Buy / Outperform.
Price targets (covered actions Feb-April 2026 window). Range $83-$90, consensus ~$87. UBS and Jefferies both at the $90 high end.
Recent analyst activity. Every action was a maintain — zero rating changes. 10 of 11 actions raised PTs:
- UBS (Peter Grom): $87 → $90 on April 7 — Buy maintained
- Jefferies (Kaumil Gajrawala): multiple actions — $84 → $88 (Feb 4) → $87 (Feb 11) → $87 → $90 (March 16)
- RBC Capital (Nik Modi): $78 → $87 on February 11 — largest single raise (+$9), Outperform
- Wells Fargo (Chris Carey): $79 → $87 on February 9 — +$8 raise, OW
- Barclays (Lauren Lieberman): $77 → $83 on February 12 — +$6, OW
- JPMorgan (Andrea Teixeira): $79 → $83 on February 11 — +$4, OW
- Citi (Filippo Falorni): $85 → $87 on February 11 — +$2, Buy
- Evercore ISI (Robert Ottenstein): $82 → $85 on February 11 — +$3, Outperform
The post-earnings (Feb 10 release date) cluster on Feb 11-12 is the standard "synchronized PT raise" pattern after a beat-and-raise print. The April 7 UBS raise to $90 is the freshest data point.
Buy-side positioning. KO is a core consumer staples holding across most institutional mandates — defensive growth profile, low beta, ~3% dividend yield. Short interest below 1% of float.
FY25 corporate structure: the volume-flat, organic +5% template
FY25 is the year Coke's "all-weather" model — volume flat, price/mix mid-single-digit, organic +5% — held visibly. Volume even, organic +5%, Q4 price/mix turning briefly negative (-3%), reported margin +750bp on lapping FY24 charges, GAAP FCF dragged by the fairlife milestone but adjusted FCF clean at $11.4B. The structural signal in the analyst response is that 11 of 11 actions were maintains and 10 of 11 were PT raises despite organic decelerating from +12% to +5% — Street is pricing the deceleration as cyclically expected, not structurally damaging. The volume + price/mix decomposition is the central FY26 watch: can volume reaccelerate from flat to +1-2% as sparkling soft drinks continue to grow penetration in emerging markets, and does Q4's -3% price/mix carry into Q1 FY26 or normalize back to +5% as marketing investment timing reverses? The Q1 FY26 earnings print this week is the proximate event for both questions; the broader thesis question is whether North America volume — flat for several years — can structurally reaccelerate.