Hess Midstream LP (NYSE: HESM) FY2025 revenue ~$1.55-1.65B (+5-8%) with adj. EPS ~$1.85-2.05 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$1.55-1.65B aggregate Williston Basin Bakken Midstream revenue (~$0.95-1.0B aggregate Gathering + ~$0.30-0.35B aggregate Processing + Storage + ~$0.30-0.35B aggregate Terminaling + Export Logistics + Other) under continued President + CEO John Gatling since June 2023 (~2-year tenure as Hess Midstream CEO). One of the largest US specialty Williston Basin Bakken Midstream Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs). Founded April 2017 as Hess Midstream Partners LP via Hess Corporation midstream IPO (~8-year heritage); selected post-April 2017 NYSE IPO; selected post-December 2019 Hess Midstream-Hess Midstream Partners simplification merger ($6.0B+ simplified MLP structure + Class A + Class B units); selected post-October 2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation pending acquisition ($53B+; pending Hess sponsorship transition to Chevron via Chevron-Hess merger); selected post-June 2023 John Gatling CEO appointment. Headquartered in Houston Texas; ~600-700 employees globally with ~$2.5-3.0B gross plant + property + equipment Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale Gathering + Processing + Storage + Terminaling footprint. One primary business: Williston Basin Bakken Midstream MLP ~100%. Structure: Gathering ~60%+ ($0.95-1.0B), Processing + Storage ~20%+ ($0.30-0.35B), Terminaling + Export Logistics + Other ~20% ($0.30-0.35B). Geographic mix: North Dakota + Montana (Williston Basin) ~99%+. Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline (~$0.95-1.0B): ~$0.95-1.0B aggregate Gathering revenue (~60%+ revenue mix); selected primary Hess Corporation ~37% LP unit ownership; selected ~70-75% Hess throughput exposure; selected ~25-30% Third-Party throughput; selected ~3-4% Same-Store volume growth; selected Minimum Volume Commitments cash flow stability. Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline: selected continued post-2017 Tioga Gas Plant Processing + Williston Basin Crude Oil + NGL Storage + Crude Oil + Natural Gas + NGL Terminaling + Export Logistics; selected ~$0.60-0.70B combined revenue (~40%+; ~25-year MVC + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility); selected ~$0.30-0.45B aggregate annual organic growth Capex; selected ~$0.7-0.9B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow. President + CEO John Gatling since June 2023 (~2-year tenure); CFO Jonathan Stein. Capital position: ~$2.85 aggregate annual distribution (~75-80% DCF payout; ~7.5-8.5% distribution yield; ~+5% annual distribution growth target); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2025 unit buybacks (post-2023 active capital return + Hess Corporation unit repurchases); aggregate capital return ~$760-1,000M FY2025; net leverage ~3.0-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA; investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~218-222M diluted Class A + Class B units; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years. FY2026 thesis: Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline + Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline + ~+5% aggregate annual distribution growth target + ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield + post-2023 Hess Corporation Chevron acquisition pending sponsorship transition + ~25-year MVC + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility. Risks: post-2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation acquisition closing + post-Chevron Hess sponsorship transition + ONEOK + Targa Resources + Kinder Morgan + Williams + Crestwood Equity Partners (post-Energy Transfer) + Western Midstream + Energy Transfer + Enterprise Products Partners competitive displacement + Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil & Gas E&P concentration considerations + WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + organic growth Capex execution considerations.

[HESM] Hess Midstream LP Thesis 2026: Bakken Pipeline Drives Hess Sponsorship Capital Return

Key Takeaways

HESM FY2025 revenue ~$1.55-1.65B (+5-8% YoY) with adj. EPS ~$1.85-2.05 reflecting continued post-2024 ~~$1.55-1.65B aggregate Williston Basin Bakken Midstream revenue (~~$0.95-1.0B aggregate Gathering + ~$0.30-0.35B aggregate Processing + Storage + ~$0.30-0.35B aggregate Terminaling + Export Logistics + Other) under continued President + CEO John Gatling since June 2023 (~2-year tenure as Hess Midstream CEO; selected post-June 2023 succeeded Hess Corporation legacy management transition).
Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing Pipeline (~$0.95-1.0B revenue): ~$0.95-1.0B aggregate Gathering revenue (~60%+ revenue mix); selected primary Hess Corporation (post-2023 Chevron acquisition pending) ~~37% LP unit ownership + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale gathering + selected various aggregate ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate gross plant + property + equipment + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Hess Corporation throughput exposure + selected various aggregate ~25-30% aggregate Third-Party throughput exposure + selected various aggregate ~3-4% aggregate Same-Store volume growth + selected various aggregate Minimum Volume Commitments (MVC) cash flow stability.
Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics Pipeline: selected continued post-2017 selected various aggregate Tioga Gas Plant Processing + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Crude Oil + Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Storage + selected various aggregate Crude Oil + Natural Gas + NGL Terminaling + Export Logistics aggregate ~$0.60-0.70B aggregate combined revenue (~40%+ aggregate revenue mix) + selected various aggregate ~25-year aggregate aggregate Minimum Volume Commitment + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility + selected various aggregate ~$0.30-0.45B aggregate annual organic growth Capex + selected various aggregate ~$0.7-0.9B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.
Capital position + balance sheet: ~$2.85 aggregate annual distribution (~75-80% aggregate Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) payout ratio; ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield; selected ~+5% aggregate annual distribution growth target); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2025 unit buybacks (post-2023 active capital return + Hess Corporation unit repurchases); aggregate capital return ~$760-1,000M FY2025; net leverage ~3.0-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA; investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~~218-222M aggregate diluted Class A + Class B units; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.
FY2026 thesis catalysts: Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline (~$0.95-1.0B + ~~70-75% Hess throughput) + Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline (~~$0.60-0.70B + ~25-year MVC + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility) + selected ~+5% aggregate annual distribution growth target + selected ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield + selected post-2023 Hess Corporation Chevron acquisition pending sponsorship transition.

Company Background

Hess Midstream LP (NYSE: HESM) is one of the largest US specialty Williston Basin Bakken Midstream Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), founded April 2017 as Hess Midstream Partners LP via Hess Corporation midstream IPO (~8-year heritage; selected primary post-2017 Hess Corporation midstream MLP carve-out). Selected post-April 2017 NYSE IPO ($230M+ aggregate IPO proceeds April 2017); selected post-December 2019 Hess Midstream-Hess Midstream Partners simplification merger (selected primary post-December 2019 ~~$6.0B+ aggregate Hess Midstream LP simplified MLP structure + Class A + Class B units); selected post-October 2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation pending acquisition (~~$53B+ aggregate value; selected primary post-2024-2025 pending Hess sponsorship transition to Chevron via Chevron-Hess Corporation merger; selected various aggregate post-2024 Global Infrastructure Partners parent transition pending); selected post-June 2023 John Gatling CEO appointment; HQ Houston Texas; ~600-700 employees globally; selected ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate gross plant + property + equipment Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale Gathering + Processing + Storage + Terminaling footprint.

HESM operates 1 primary business: Williston Basin Bakken Midstream MLP ~100% revenue. Gathering revenue ~~60%+ revenue mix (~~$0.95-1.0B; selected primary Hess Corporation + Third-Party Crude Oil + Natural Gas + NGL gathering). Processing + Storage revenue ~~20%+ revenue mix (~~$0.30-0.35B; selected primary Tioga Gas Plant + Williston Basin Crude Oil + NGL Storage). Terminaling + Export Logistics + Other revenue ~~20% revenue mix (~~$0.30-0.35B; selected primary Crude Oil + Natural Gas + NGL Terminaling + Export Logistics). Geographic mix: North Dakota + Montana (Williston Basin) ~99%+.

Capital position: ~$2.85 aggregate annual distribution (~75-80% aggregate Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) payout ratio; ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield); ~$300-450M aggregate FY2025 unit buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$760-1,000M FY2025; net leverage ~3.0-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA; investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~218-222M aggregate diluted Class A + Class B units; weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing Pipeline (~$0.95-1.0B Revenue)

The Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline is HESM's foundation thesis: ~$0.95-1.0B aggregate Gathering revenue (~60%+ revenue mix) + selected primary Hess Corporation (post-2023 Chevron acquisition pending) ~~37% LP unit ownership + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Shale gathering + selected various aggregate ~$2.5-3.0B aggregate gross plant + property + equipment + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Hess Corporation throughput exposure + selected various aggregate ~25-30% aggregate Third-Party throughput exposure + selected various aggregate ~3-4% aggregate Same-Store volume growth + selected various aggregate Minimum Volume Commitments (MVC) cash flow stability. Selected primary HESM platform: Hess Corporation ~70-75% throughput exposure + Williston Basin Bakken + Three Forks Gathering specialty.

FY2025 Williston Bakken Gathering dynamics ($0.95-1.0B aggregate revenue): selected continued post-2024 ~+5-8% aggregate Gathering revenue growth (cyclical Williston Bakken volume + selected various aggregate ~3-4% aggregate Same-Store volume growth + selected various aggregate Minimum Volume Commitments stability) + ~$0.95-1.0B aggregate Gathering revenue + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Hess Corporation throughput + selected various aggregate ~25-30% aggregate Third-Party throughput. Selected post-2024 ~$0.50-0.85 incremental annual EPS contribution as Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline + ~$0.50-0.85 incremental annual EPS contribution under continued John Gatling leadership (~2-year tenure). Selected aggregate ~$1.0-1.05B aggregate Gathering revenue + selected various ~+3-5% aggregate Gathering growth + selected various aggregate ~70-75% aggregate Hess Corporation throughput + selected various aggregate ~25-30% aggregate Third-Party throughput + selected various aggregate ~3-4% aggregate Same-Store volume growth. Risks: post-2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation acquisition pending closing considerations + post-Chevron Hess sponsorship transition considerations + Continental Resources + Devon Energy + ConocoPhillips + Marathon Oil (post-COP) + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil & Gas E&P concentration considerations + WTI Crude Oil price cycle considerations + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations.

Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics Pipeline

The Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline is HESM's primary growth thesis: selected continued post-2017 selected various aggregate Tioga Gas Plant Processing + selected various aggregate Williston Basin Crude Oil + Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Storage + selected various aggregate Crude Oil + Natural Gas + NGL Terminaling + Export Logistics aggregate ~$0.60-0.70B aggregate combined revenue (~40%+ aggregate revenue mix) + selected various aggregate ~25-year aggregate aggregate Minimum Volume Commitment + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility + selected various aggregate ~$0.30-0.45B aggregate annual organic growth Capex + selected various aggregate ~$0.7-0.9B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow.

FY2025 Processing + Storage + Terminaling dynamics: selected primary post-2017 Tioga Gas Plant Processing + Williston Basin Crude Oil + NGL Storage + Crude Oil + Natural Gas + NGL Terminaling + Export Logistics + selected various aggregate ~$0.60-0.70B aggregate combined revenue + selected various aggregate ~25-year MVC + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility + selected various aggregate ~$0.30-0.45B aggregate annual organic growth Capex. Selected post-2024 ~$0.30-0.50 incremental annual EPS contribution as Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline drives incremental margin.

FY2026 catalyst: continued Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline + ~$0.30-0.50 incremental EPS contribution. Selected aggregate ~$0.65-0.75B aggregate combined revenue + selected various aggregate ~25-year MVC + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility + selected various aggregate ~$0.30-0.45B aggregate annual organic growth Capex + selected various aggregate ~$0.7-0.9B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow + selected various aggregate post-2024 organic growth project execution. Risks: ONEOK (OKE) + Targa Resources (TRGP) + Kinder Morgan (KMI) + Williams (WMB) + Crestwood Equity Partners (post-Energy Transfer acquisition) + selected various aggregate Williston Basin midstream competitive displacement + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + Williston Basin volume cycle considerations + post-2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation acquisition pending considerations.

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Capital position + balance sheet: ~$2.85 aggregate annual distribution (~75-80% aggregate Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) payout ratio; ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield) + ~$300-450M aggregate FY2025 unit buybacks + aggregate capital return ~$760-1,000M FY2025 + net leverage ~3.0-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA + investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating + ~218-222M aggregate diluted Class A + Class B units + weighted average debt maturity ~5-6 years.

FY2026 catalyst: continued ~$760-1,100M aggregate annual capital return + selected continued ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield + selected continued ~$2.85-3.00 aggregate annual distribution + selected continued ~3.0-3.5x net leverage + selected various aggregate ~+5% aggregate annual distribution growth target + selected various aggregate ~$300-500M aggregate annual unit buybacks + selected various aggregate ~$0.7-0.9B aggregate annual Free Cash Flow. Selected ~75-80% aggregate DCF payout ratio + selected investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating support continued capital return + Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing + Storage + Terminaling expansion + organic growth Capex.

Key Core Metrics

FY2025 revenue ~$1.55-1.65B (+5-8% YoY) vs $1.45B FY2024; adj. EPS ~$1.85-2.05
1 segment: Williston Basin Bakken Midstream MLP ~100%
Structure: Gathering ~60%+ ($0.95-1.0B) + Processing + Storage ~20%+ ($0.30-0.35B) + Terminaling + Export Logistics + Other ~20% ($0.30-0.35B)
Geographic mix: North Dakota + Montana (Williston Basin) ~99%+
Hess Corporation ~37% LP unit ownership (post-2023 Chevron acquisition pending)
Hess throughput exposure: ~70-75%; Third-Party throughput exposure: ~25-30%
Same-Store volume growth: ~3-4%
~25-year MVC + Tariff Floor cash flow visibility
Tioga Gas Plant Processing; Williston Basin Crude Oil + NGL Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics
Annual organic growth Capex: ~$0.30-0.45B
Free Cash Flow: ~$0.7-0.9B aggregate annual
Net leverage ~3.0-3.5x Net Debt/EBITDA
~218-222M aggregate diluted Class A + Class B units
Distribution ~$2.85 annual (~75-80% DCF payout; ~7.5-8.5% yield; +5% annual distribution growth target)
~$300-450M aggregate FY2025 unit buybacks
~$760-1,000M total capital return FY2025
Investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating

Market Evaluation

HESM FY2026 market evaluation: at ~$35-45 unit price + ~218-222M aggregate diluted Class A + Class B units = ~$8-10B market cap; ~$2.85 aggregate annual distribution + ~7.5-8.5% aggregate distribution yield. Selected primary HESM peers: Energy Transfer (ET, ~$50-60B Mcap; competitor in midstream) + Enterprise Products Partners (EPD, ~$60-70B) + Western Midstream (WES, ~$15-18B; Occidental sponsored) + ONEOK (OKE, ~$40-50B) + Targa Resources (TRGP, ~$25-30B) + Kinder Morgan (KMI, ~$45-50B) + Williams (WMB, ~$50-60B) + Magellan Midstream (post-OKE acquisition) + Crestwood Equity Partners (post-Energy Transfer acquisition) + selected various aggregate global midstream MLPs. Selected HESM ~17-22x P/E + selected ~10-12x EV/EBITDA + selected ~7.5-8.5% distribution yield + selected aggregate ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate FY2026 revenue + selected aggregate ~$2.00-2.20 aggregate FY2026 EPS + selected aggregate ~$760-1,100M aggregate FY2026 capital return + selected aggregate Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline. FY2026 base case: ~$1.65-1.75B aggregate revenue + ~$2.00-2.20 adj. EPS + ~$760-1,100M aggregate capital return. Bull case: post-2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation acquisition closing + post-Chevron Hess sponsorship transition stability + Williston Bakken volume growth + organic growth Capex execution + +5% annual distribution growth target continuation + Federal Reserve interest rate cuts + WTI Crude Oil price recovery drives ~$1.70-1.80B aggregate revenue + ~$2.10-2.30 EPS. Bear case: post-2023 Chevron-Hess Corporation acquisition closing considerations + post-Chevron Hess sponsorship transition considerations + ONEOK + Targa Resources + Kinder Morgan + Williams + Crestwood + Western Midstream + Energy Transfer competitive intensification + Williston Basin Bakken Shale Oil & Gas E&P concentration considerations + WTI Crude Oil price cycle weakness + Federal Reserve interest rate cycle considerations + organic growth Capex execution considerations drives ~$1.55-1.65B revenue + ~$1.65-1.85 EPS. The thesis depends on Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing pipeline + Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics pipeline + Hess Corporation sponsorship + ~+5% aggregate annual distribution growth target.

[HESM] Hess Midstream LP Thesis 2026: Bakken Pipeline Drives Hess Sponsorship Capital Return

[HESM] Hess Midstream LP Thesis 2026: Bakken Pipeline Drives Hess Sponsorship Capital Return

Key Takeaways

Company Background

Williston Bakken Gathering + Processing Pipeline (~$0.95-1.0B Revenue)

Processing + Storage + Terminaling + Export Logistics Pipeline

Capital Position + Balance Sheet

Key Core Metrics

Market Evaluation

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