SpaceX Confidential IPO Filing: Which ETFs and Aerospace Suppliers Are Primed for the Upside?
Elon Musk's SpaceX has taken a major step toward going public, filing confidential IPO paperwork as reported by Bloomberg this week. Valued privately at up to $350 billion in recent tenders, a public listing could catapult it into mega-cap territory, delivering windfalls to early investors and partners. The question for public market players: Which exchange-traded funds holding SpaceX shares and aerospace suppliers tied to its rocket ecosystem stand to gain the most from this catalyst?
SpaceX's dominance in reusable rockets and Starlink satellites has reshaped the launch market, capturing over 60% of global orbital missions last year. But its private status has locked value for holders like ARK Invest's ETFs. An IPO—potentially targeting Starlink as a separate entity—would crystallize gains, while heightened scrutiny and capital access could accelerate supplier contracts for engines, avionics, and structures. With defense budgets swelling and commercial space booming, publicly traded players exposed here could see revenue tailwinds. Recent news, like ERShares' XOVR ETF highlighting pre-IPO SpaceX access amid $1.75 trillion valuation chatter, underscores the buzz.
ARKK: ARK Innovation ETF – Direct Private SpaceX Bet
ARKK, managed by Cathie Wood's ARK Invest, holds a significant private stake in SpaceX, positioning it as a pure-play beneficiary of any IPO pop. As SpaceX's valuation has surged on Starship milestones and Starlink subscriber growth to 4 million, ARKK's exposure could translate to NAV uplift without dilution risks faced by other holders.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| AUM (Market Cap Proxy) | ~$5B |
| 1Y Price Return | +25% (est., amid volatile tech) |
| Expense Ratio | 0.75% |
| Top Holdings Exposure | TSLA, COIN, SpaceX private |
ARKK trades at a premium to NAV during hype cycles, but SpaceX's IPO could drive sustained inflows. Verdict: Strong bull – top pick for thematic purity.
ARKW: ARK Next Generation Internet ETF – Starlink Leverage
Sister fund ARKW complements ARKK with heavier SpaceX weighting, betting on satellite internet disrupting telecom. Starlink's $10B+ annual run-rate revenue makes it IPO-ready, potentially valuing the unit at $150B+ and boosting ARKW's performance.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| AUM | ~$1.2B |
| 1Y Price Return | +18% |
| Key Theme | Broadband disruption |
With lower fees and focused holdings, ARKW offers cleaner SpaceX upside. Verdict: Bull – pair with ARKK for amplified exposure.
NOC: Northrop Grumman – Rocket Motors and Launch Systems Leader
Northrop Grumman supplies solid rocket motors like GEM 63/63XL for ULA's Vulcan (a SpaceX rival but shared ecosystem) and NASA's SLS, with space systems at 20%+ of revenue. SEC filings highlight missile defense and launch propulsion, areas where SpaceX partnerships could expand amid IPO-fueled growth.
| Metric | TTM Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $99B |
| Revenue Growth | +2.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | 17.2% |
| P/E | 23.9x |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9x |
| 1Y Price Return | +50% |
Q4 2025 earnings showed $95B backlog and mid-single-digit 2026 sales growth to $43.5-44B, with space sales hitting $11B. Verdict: Bull – defensive growth at reasonable valuation.
RTX: RTX Corporation – Collins Aerospace Space Solutions
RTX's Collins Aerospace provides environmental controls, power systems, and avionics for commercial space ops, supporting human exploration and satellites. Filings note aftermarket services for space, with Boeing/Airbus as anchors but growing non-traditional exposure.
| Metric | TTM Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $262B |
| Revenue Growth | +9.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 15.0% |
| P/E | 38.8x |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3x |
| 1Y Price Return | +56% |
2026 guidance: $92-93B sales (5-6% organic growth), $6.60-6.80 EPS. Backlog at $268B. Recent Pratt wins signal capacity ramp. Verdict: Bull – scale favors spillover contracts.
LHX: L3Harris – Propulsion via Aerojet Rocketdyne
L3Harris' Aerojet Rocketdyne delivers space propulsion and power for NASA/DoD missions, with SEC docs emphasizing hypersonic and exploration. Recent Intuitive Machines selection for SDA Tranche 3 ties it to proliferated space architectures overlapping SpaceX.
| Metric | TTM Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $66B |
| Revenue Growth | +2.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.3% |
| P/E | 41.3x |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2x |
| 1Y Price Return | +72% |
Strong international sales (20% growth) and capacity investments position it well. Verdict: Bull – niche propulsion edge.
BA: Boeing – Legacy Space Player with Revival Potential
Boeing's space division lags Starliner issues but supplies structures and systems; SEC ties to NASA SLS. IPO hype could revive commercial crew/lunar contracts, aiding recovery.
| Metric | TTM Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $165B |
| Revenue Growth | +34.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 8.2% |
| P/E | 88.5x |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.8x |
| 1Y Price Return | +32% |
2026 FCF $1-3B target post-Spirit integration; 777X delivery 2027. Verdict: Cautious bull – highest risk/reward.
Ranked Conviction: The SpaceX IPO Playbook
- ARKK/ARKW – Purest upside from direct holdings (highest conviction).
- NOC – Best balance of growth, margins, valuation.
- RTX – Scale and backlog dominance.
- LHX – Propulsion specialist.
- BA – Turnaround dependent.
All benefit uniformly from SpaceX's public milestone, but ETFs lead on immediacy, suppliers on sustained revenue.
Risks to Watch: Delayed IPO (monitor Starlink subs >5M), FAA Starship approvals, or defense budget cuts. Key signals: Q1 earnings for space order growth >10%, ETF inflows post-filing declassification.