YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Earnings

YPF Sociedad Anónima is expected to report next earnings on August 6, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.00. YPF has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of its last 11 reported quarters (average surprise -83.1% over the last four).

Next earnings
Aug 6, 2026in NaN days
EPS est $0.00 · Revenue est $6.0B
Track record
Beat EPS in 4 of 11 quarters
Avg surprise -83.1% (last 4 quarters)
Earnings history
Report dateEPS estEPS actualSurpriseRevenueRev. surprise
May 8, 2026$0.83$1.03+24.1%$3.5B-29.7%
Nov 7, 2025$0.73$-0.53-172.6%$4.6B+0.3%
Aug 8, 2025$0.61$0.13-78.7%$4.6B+3.1%
May 8, 2025$0.76$-0.04-105.3%$4.6B-0.7%
Dec 31, 2024$-0.77$4.8B
Aug 9, 2024$0.70$1.32+89.4%$4.9B+9.3%
Mar 7, 2024$1.14$-4.75-516.7%$4.2B-5.9%
Nov 9, 2023$0.46$-0.33-171.2%$4.5B+9.8%
Aug 11, 2023$0.94$0.86-8.8%$4.4B-4.4%
May 12, 2023$0.87$0.87+0.0%$4.2B-6.7%
Nov 9, 2022$1.26$1.72+36.5%$5.2B+11.6%
Aug 11, 2022$0.90$2.01+123.3%$4.9B+14.9%

Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Earnings call summary

Q1 FY2026 · May 9, 2026

AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Management highlights

### Core Financial Results - Delivered a robust start to 2026 with record Q1 adjusted EBITDA and exceptional free cash flow driven by shale production growth, improved pricing, and upstream cost transformation. - Completed multiple strategic divestments of non-core conventional assets to strengthen the balance sheet and focus on the core Vaca Muerta shale business: received full $410 million proceeds from the Profertil divestiture, $85 million partial proceeds from the Manantiales Behr field sale (remaining balance to be collected through 2028), and closed the $204 million acquisition of a portion of Equinor's Vaca Muerta assets via a joint venture with Vista Energy. - Ended Q1 with $1.7 billion in liquidity, an increase of $500 million quarter-over-quarter. Successfully raised ~$1 billion in financing across international and local markets at attractive rates, including the lowest YPF international bond yield in 9 years, and prepaid ~$750 million in near-term debt to optimize the capital structure. ### Operational Milestones & Efficiency Improvements - Set a new fracturing record: 52 stages completed in less than 5 days at the Loma Campana field. - Achieved meaningful productivity gains: shale drilling speed improved 12% YoY to 364 meters per day, unconventional fracturing speed grew 15% YoY to 11.2 stages per set per day, and average horizontal well length increased from ~3,000 meters to nearly 3,450 meters, reducing cost per well and accelerating production ramp-up. - Secured additional pipeline capacity to support future production growth: YPF gained an extra 44,000 bpd of capacity from VMOS, increasing its stake from 25% to 30%, and will access 40,000 bpd of incremental capacity from Oldelval's year-end expansion. ### Strategic Agreements - Signed a 5-year strategic agreement with Halliburton to deploy 4 sets of new electrical fracturing technology in Vaca Muerta, making YPF the first company outside the U.S. to use this technology, which improves operational efficiency and reduces costs and emissions. ### Local Fuel Pricing Strategy - Following a sharp March 2026 international price increase driven by Middle East conflicts and a subsequent 10% late March demand contraction, YPF proactively implemented a 45-day temporary pause on additional domestic price pass-through starting in April, with no government involvement; the decision was subsequently adopted by all major domestic industry operators. The policy acts as a buffer to mitigate demand contraction, with planned catch-up price adjustment after the 45-day period to close the gap with import parity pricing. YPF maintained its long-term import parity pricing strategy for the domestic market. ### LNG Project Update - YPF's transformational Argentina LNG project (with founding partners ENI and ADNOC's XRG) progressed toward a year-end final investment decision (FID). The project has a total estimated investment of ~$24 billion (an upward adjustment from prior guidance that reflects a strategic reallocation of investment between upstream and midstream, not an increase in aggregate project cost). Market sounding for project financing has received strong interest from ~50 institutional investors, with initial appetite exceeding total project requirements. The commercial bidding process has also received stronger than expected market demand. - The CESA tolling phase (YPF holds 25% stake) signed an 8-year 2 million tons per year LNG supply agreement with Germany's SEFE starting in late 2027, covering 30% of CESA's total first-phase capacity. The gas pipeline engineering and construction contract has been awarded, and project financing is advancing.

Guidance

- Full-year 2026 shale oil production target of ~215,000 barrels per day remains on track, with a planned December 2026 exit rate of 250,000 barrels per day. - Full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance is maintained at $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion, with accelerated capital deployment expected in subsequent quarters of 2026 following lower Q1 investment. YPF cannot accelerate 2026 production growth beyond guidance due to existing infrastructure bottlenecks, but higher current Brent prices will support faster production expansion in 2027, with production expected to exceed prior guidance. - The Argentina LNG project remains on track to reach a final investment decision by the end of 2026. The Middle East conflict has increased investor and offtaker appetite for the project, and the second-phase 6 million ton per year expansion is expected to be accelerated compared to prior timelines. - Net leverage is expected to continue improving throughout 2026 as strong cash generation continues. - La Angostura Sur has a long-term plateau production target of ~100,000 barrels per day, with ~1,200 remaining drilling locations supporting long-term growth.

Segment performance

1. Upstream Segment: - Shale oil production hit a record 205,000 barrels per day (bpd), up 5% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 39% year-over-year (YoY), accounting for 76% of YPF's total oil production. The La Angostura Sur block alone grew from 2,000 bpd 18 months ago to ~55,000 bpd currently, representing 25% of total shale oil output, with a breakeven price below $40 per barrel and lifting cost of ~$3 per barrel. - Conventional oil production declined over 45% YoY to 66,000 bpd (35,000 bpd pro forma excluding divested assets), as YPF continues to exit non-core mature conventional assets. - Natural gas production averaged 32.8 million cubic meters per day, down 12% YoY, reflecting continued exit from mature conventional fields partially offset by shale gas expansion. - Upstream lifting costs dropped 42% YoY to $8.8 per BOE, with pro forma lifting cost (excluding divested assets) at ~$8 per BOE; shale oil hub lifting costs reached best-in-class $4 per BOE. 2. Midstream and Downstream Segment: - Refinery processing hit a record 344,000 barrels per day, up 3% QoQ and 8% YoY, with 102% utilization achieved in the quarter. Record production of premium gasoline and mill distillates allowed YPF to avoid crude imports, supply domestic peers and export to neighboring countries. - Year-over-year gasoline and diesel dispatch volumes grew 8% driven by strong demand (especially from agribusiness), maintaining a 57% core market share (60% including third-party dispatched YPF product). - Adjusted EBITDA margin was $19.1 per barrel in Q1 2026, strengthening to ~$24 per barrel in preliminary April figures. 3. Consolidated Performance: - Total consolidated revenues were $4.95 billion, up 9% QoQ and 7% YoY. - Adjusted EBITDA reached ~$1.6 billion (highest Q1 level in YPF history), with a 32% margin, up 24% QoQ and 28% YoY. - Free cash flow hit $871 million, an improvement of $1.8 billion YoY, supported by strong operating performance and ~$500 million in strategic M&A proceeds. - Net leverage ratio improved to 1.57x, down from 1.9x in Q4 2025 and a 2.1x peak in Q3 2025.

Risks & headwinds

- Volatility in international crude oil prices driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict creates near-term uncertainty for domestic demand and pricing dynamics. - Existing pipeline and export infrastructure bottlenecks currently limit the pace of near-term shale production growth, even with higher available capital. - The domestic oilfield service market is still developing, and limited competition has the potential to keep service costs higher than optimal, though YPF is actively attracting new international entrants to increase competition and reduce costs.

Analyst Q&A

  • Q: What is YPF's view on emerging competition in the Vaca Muerta oilfield service market, and how is it impacting service pricing? /

    A: YPF has already secured large long-term contracts with international service providers that delivered significant cost reductions, and the company is actively encouraging new service entrants to Argentina to increase competition. YPF has already secured all required rigs and fracturing fleets for 2026 (targeting 19 rigs by December) and is currently securing capacity for 2027, while importing latest-generation U.S. technology to improve operational efficiency. Additional competition is expected to drive further cost reductions for shareholders.

  • Q: Why was there a perceived slowdown in Q1 2026 drilling activity, and does it change full-year production guidance? /

    A: There was no actual slowdown in activity. Q1 CapEx and activity appeared lower because Q4 2025 included extraordinary spending to reduce the backlog of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells. In Q1, YPF drilled the same number of wells as prior periods but shifted to longer 6% longer lateral wells that deliver better production economics. Activity is on track to ramp up starting in Q2, with 19 rigs expected by year-end, and full-year production guidance remains unchanged, with activity paced to match available pipeline evacuation capacity.

  • Q: What explains the $24 billion Argentina LNG project CapEx increase from the prior $20 billion estimate, and what changes were made to the project design? /

    A: This is not a net increase in total project cost, but a reallocation of investment between upstream and midstream segments. The project team reoptimized the design to add onshore separation facilities in Neuquén, with two separate pipelines (one for wet gas, one for condensate and other liquids) to improve overall project profitability. The total aggregate investment remains largely unchanged; the higher headline figure reflects previously unincluded upstream investment being added to the overall project disclosure, not a cost overrun.

  • Q: With Brent prices currently well above YPF's prior $63-$65 per Brent baseline for neutral free cash flow, will YPF increase 2026 CapEx and accelerate production growth? /

    A: 2026 CapEx guidance will not change, as existing infrastructure bottlenecks mean additional upstream spending would not allow increased production evacuation before late 2026. Higher cash flow from elevated oil prices will allow faster acceleration of production growth in 2027, bringing forward production plateau targets. YPF will share full updated 2027 guidance at the upcoming New York Investor Day.