Vistra Corp.
- Open
- 144.22
- Day high
- 148.78
- Day low
- 142.81
- Prev close
- 143.46
- Volume
- 2.3M
- Mkt cap
- $48.2B
- P/E (TTM)
- 23.9
- EPS (TTM)
- $6.03
- P/B
- 8.8
- P/S
- 3.0
- Yield
- 0.32%
- Per share
- $0.46
- ▼Insiders net selling -$6.1M over the last 3 months (1 open-market buy, 4 sales)
- 🏛Institutions accumulating (13F)
Vistra Corp. (VST) is a Utilities company listed on NYSE. The stock is down 26% over the past year. Over the trailing 3 months, insiders filed 1 open-market buy and 4 sales (SEC Form 4). Drillr has 4 published research articles covering VST.
Vistra Corp. (VST) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
VST earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | $1.61 | $0.76 | -52.8% | $4.0B | -25.3% |
| May 7, 2026 | $1.32 | $2.87 | +117.4% | $5.6B | +8.3% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | $2.60 | $2.01 | -22.7% | $4.6B | -23.9% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $2.08 | $1.75 | -15.9% | $5.0B | -18.7% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.88 | $0.81 | -7.4% | $4.3B | -10.4% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.54 | $-0.93 | -273.5% | $5.2B | +13.7% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.85 | $1.14 | +34.1% | $7.4B | +88.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $1.20 | $5.40 | +350.0% | $5.5B | +10.4% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | $1.38 | $0.90 | -34.8% | $3.7B | -7.0% |
| May 9, 2024 | $0.62 | $0.23 | -62.8% | $2.8B | -4.5% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $-0.04 | $-0.55 | -1471.4% | $3.4B | -2.3% |
| Mar 1, 2023 | $4.63 | $-0.73 | -115.8% | $4.3B | -32.0% |
VST insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | BURKE JAMES Adirector, officer: President and CEO | Buy | 2,000 | $135.00 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Acosta Arciliadirector | Sell | 7,500 | $165.04 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | SULT JOHN Rdirector | Sell | 6,500 | $170.00 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | HELM SCOTT Bdirector | Sell | 25,000 | $160.00 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | BARBAS PAUL Mdirector | Sell | 244 | $147.93 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Montemayor Margaretofficer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Sell | 4,600 | $160.00 |
| May 29, 2026 | Montemayor Margaretofficer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Sell | 5,000 | $164.96 |
| May 19, 2026 | Baiera Gavin R.director | Grant | 1,268 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | Ackermann Hilary E.director | Grant | 1,268 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | Crutchfield Lisadirector | Grant | 1,268 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | HELM SCOTT Bdirector | Grant | 2,008 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | SULT JOHN Rdirector | Grant | 1,268 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | Walters Robert Charlesdirector | Grant | 1,268 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | BARBAS PAUL Mdirector | Grant | 1,268 | — |
| May 19, 2026 | Lagacy Julie A.director | Grant | 1,268 | — |
Source: VST SEC Form 4 filings, latest Aug 24, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full VST insider & 13F page →VST research & analysis
[VST] Vistra Corp Thesis 2026: Energy Harbor Nuclear Integration + Texas ERCOT Scarcity Pricing + Hyperscaler PPAs Anchor IPP Diversification
Vistra Corp FY2025 revenue ~$17-18B (+5-8%) with adj. EPS ~$5.00-5.50 reflecting continued Texas ERCOT power price strength (selected scarcity pricing during peak summer demand + selected market dynamics) + Energy Harbor nuclear acquisition full-year contribution + selected hyperscaler PPA execution + retail business steady contribution. Large US independent power producer (IPP) + retail electricity company formed via 2016 emergence from Energy Future Holdings Chapter 11 bankruptcy + 2018 merger with Dynegy. ~41GW total generation post-Energy Harbor: ~16GW natural gas + ~7GW nuclear + ~10GW coal (declining; selected retirements) + ~5GW solar/wind/battery + ~3GW selected. Geographic mix: Texas ERCOT 50% + PJM 30% + MISO + others 20%. 2 segments: Generation ~60% (wholesale power) + Retail ~40% (TXU Energy ~5M Texas customers + Dynegy + Ambit). CEO Jim Burke since August 2022 (ex-Vistra COO + ex-TXU Energy CEO). Energy Harbor $3.4B nuclear acquisition closed March 1, 2024 added Beaver Valley PA (1.9GW, 2 units) + Davis-Besse OH (0.9GW, 1 unit) + Perry OH (1.3GW, 1 unit) — ~4GW combined nuclear capacity. Texas ERCOT scarcity pricing: selected $5,000+/MWh price caps during peak hours; data center demand + crypto + manufacturing reshoring drive sustained load growth. $7.5B buyback program announced 2024; share count 410M FY2022 → 342M FY2025E (~17% reduction over 3 years). Capital return: dividend $0.36/share + buybacks $1.5-2.5B; net debt $13-14B; Baa3/BBB- investment grade. FY2026 thesis: power price strength + Energy Harbor + hyperscaler PPAs + capital return acceleration. Risks: power price volatility, coal retirements stranded assets, nuclear regulatory environment.
ETR Stock: AI Data Center Power Bills Explained
Entergy CEO advocates AI customers pay incremental + capacity charge. ETR 4-6% load growth via LA/TX/MS AI concentration.
ETRCEGNRG, VST, CEG: AI Power Demand as the Binding Constraint
US datacenter electricity demand to grow 200-300 TWh by 2030. NRG at 0.70x P/S, VST 2.11x, CEG 2.58x — three options for AI electricity thesis.
NRGCEGHormuz Blockade Enters Day 10: XOM, CVX Win as Tanker Rates Hit 3-Year Highs
New Era Energy & Digital's JV with Stream for West Texas' TCDC campus catalyzes renewable AI data centers, benefiting NEE, EQIX, DLR, VST, and FLR through power supply, operations, and construction. NEE and DLR lead with strong growth and valuations amid surging Texas demand. Watch ERCOT queues and PPAs for confirmation.
NEEEQIXDLR
Vistra Corp. company profile
Overview
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) is one of the largest independent power producers in the United States, operating as an integrated electricity company that both generates power and sells it directly to consumers. Founded in 1882 and headquartered in Irving, Texas, the company went public in 2016 following the deregulation of the Texas electricity market. Vistra operates across multiple U.S. electricity markets, serving approximately 4.3 million retail customers while maintaining a diverse generation portfolio of approximately 38,700 megawatts capacity spanning natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage facilities.
Business
Vistra operates in the independent power production industry, which involves companies that generate electricity and sell it in wholesale markets or directly to consumers, rather than being traditional regulated utilities. The company's business is built around two complementary segments that work together in an integrated model. The Generation segment operates power plants that produce electricity from various fuel sources. This includes natural gas-fired power plants that can quickly ramp up during peak demand periods, nuclear facilities that provide steady baseload power around the clock, coal plants (though these are being phased down), and renewable energy facilities including solar farms and battery storage systems. The generation assets are located primarily in Texas (ERCOT market), the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions (PJM market), and other competitive electricity markets. This segment typically accounts for the majority of the company's earnings, with recent quarters showing generation contributing approximately 75-80% of total adjusted EBITDA. The Retail segment sells electricity and natural gas directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states and the District of Columbia. Operating under various brand names, this segment acts as an electricity retailer in deregulated markets, purchasing power from wholesale markets (including from Vistra's own generation facilities) and selling it to end customers with various pricing plans and contract terms. The retail business provides more stable, recurring revenue streams and typically contributes about 20-25% of total adjusted EBITDA. The company also operates Vistra Zero, its clean energy development platform focused on renewable energy projects including solar installations and battery energy storage systems. This represents the company's energy transition strategy, though it currently contributes a smaller portion of overall revenues compared to the core generation and retail segments.
Revenue model
Vistra makes money through two primary revenue streams that complement each other in its integrated business model. The generation business earns revenue by selling electricity in wholesale power markets, where prices fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics, fuel costs, and grid conditions. During periods of high electricity demand or when competing power plants are offline, wholesale prices can spike significantly, allowing efficient generators to capture substantial margins. The company also enters into longer-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with corporate customers like Amazon and Microsoft for renewable energy projects, providing more predictable revenue streams. The retail business generates revenue by charging customers for electricity and natural gas consumption, typically earning a margin between the wholesale price of power and the retail price charged to customers. This business model benefits from customer stickiness, as residential and small commercial customers tend to remain with their electricity provider for extended periods. The retail segment also provides natural hedging for the generation business, as Vistra can sell power from its own plants to its retail customers, reducing exposure to volatile wholesale market prices. Several factors significantly impact the company's profitability margins. Natural gas prices are crucial since gas-fired plants are often the marginal generators setting electricity prices, and gas is also a major fuel cost for Vistra's generation fleet. Weather patterns drive electricity demand, with extreme hot or cold weather increasing power consumption and typically boosting wholesale prices. Economic growth and industrial activity in Vistra's service territories affect both retail customer demand and wholesale power prices. The company is particularly exposed to data center development, as these facilities require massive amounts of reliable electricity and represent a growing source of power demand. Regulatory changes can significantly impact margins, including environmental regulations affecting coal plants, nuclear subsidies, renewable energy incentives, and market structure reforms in regions like ERCOT and PJM. Competition from renewable energy can suppress wholesale power prices during sunny and windy periods, though this is partially offset by the company's own renewable development and the need for dispatchable generation when renewables aren't producing.
Competitive moat
Vistra's competitive moat is moderately strong but faces evolving challenges in the changing electricity landscape. The company's primary moat stems from its integrated business model that combines generation and retail operations, creating natural hedging benefits and operational synergies that pure-play generators or retailers cannot achieve. This integration allows Vistra to capture value across the electricity value chain and reduces earnings volatility compared to competitors focused on a single segment. The company benefits from high barriers to entry in power generation, where new plants require substantial capital investment, lengthy permitting processes, and technical expertise to operate safely and efficiently. Vistra's existing fleet of well-located, efficient power plants represents assets that would be expensive and time-consuming for competitors to replicate. The company's nuclear facilities are particularly valuable assets, as building new nuclear plants in the U.S. has become prohibitively expensive and politically challenging, making existing nuclear plants increasingly scarce and valuable for their carbon-free baseload generation. However, Vistra's moat faces meaningful challenges. The ongoing energy transition toward renewable energy is fundamentally reshaping electricity markets, with solar and wind power becoming increasingly cost-competitive and supported by government incentives. This trend can suppress wholesale electricity prices during periods of high renewable generation, pressuring margins for traditional thermal generators. Additionally, distributed energy resources like rooftop solar and battery storage allow some customers to reduce their dependence on grid electricity, potentially eroding the retail customer base over time. The company's competitive position varies by market, with stronger positions in Texas where it has significant generation capacity and retail market share, but facing more intense competition in other regions. Regulatory risks remain substantial, as changes to market structures, environmental regulations, or nuclear policies could significantly impact the value of Vistra's generation assets. The company is adapting by investing in renewable energy and battery storage while exploring new opportunities like data center co-location, but these efforts are still in early stages compared to the core thermal generation business.
Risks & safety
Vistra presents a moderate margin of safety with some concerns around leverage and cyclical earnings volatility, though recent strong performance has improved the financial position. **Debt and Solvency:** - Net leverage ratio of approximately 3.0x debt-to-EBITDA, which is manageable but elevated for a cyclical utility business - Total debt-to-equity ratio of 3.1x indicates significant leverage - Current ratio of 0.96 shows tight short-term liquidity, though this is typical for utilities with predictable cash flows - Strong free cash flow generation of $2.5 billion in 2024 provides debt service coverage **Valuation Metrics:** - Trading at 9.2x EV/EBITDA based on 2024 results, reasonable for a power generator - P/E ratio of 17.9x based on 2024 earnings, which included some one-time benefits - Price-to-book ratio of 8.5x appears elevated, reflecting market optimism about future earnings potential **Other Considerations:** - Substantial capital return program with $5.9 billion returned to shareholders since Q4 2021 demonstrates commitment to shareholder returns - Hedging strategy with ~95% of expected 2025-2026 generation hedged provides near-term earnings visibility - Exposure to volatile wholesale power markets creates earnings cyclicality risk - Nuclear fleet provides stable cash flows but faces long-term policy uncertainty
Recent development
Over the past few years, Vistra has executed several strategic initiatives to position itself for the evolving electricity landscape. The company completed its acquisition of Energy Harbor in 2024, adding nuclear generation assets and expanding its presence in the PJM market, with expected annual synergies of $125 million by 2025. This acquisition strengthened Vistra's nuclear portfolio, which benefits from carbon-free generation and potential production tax credits. Vistra has been actively pursuing the energy transition through its Vistra Zero platform, investing over $700 million in solar and energy storage projects in 2025. The company has secured long-term power purchase agreements with major technology companies including Amazon and Microsoft for renewable energy projects, providing stable revenue streams. Additionally, Vistra completed the expansion of its Moss Landing battery storage facility in California, adding 350 megawatts of storage capacity. The company is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on growing electricity demand from data centers, exploring co-location opportunities at both nuclear and natural gas facilities. These discussions involve complex arrangements where data centers would be built adjacent to power plants, potentially providing dedicated power supply while navigating transmission and regulatory challenges. Vistra is also investigating nuclear fleet uprates that could increase capacity by approximately 10% across its nuclear facilities. In response to changing market dynamics, Vistra has been optimizing its generation portfolio by retiring older, less efficient coal plants while investing in natural gas plant augmentations totaling approximately 500 megawatts in Texas. The company extended operations at some facilities like the Baldwin plant to 2027 and is converting the Toledo Creek coal plant to natural gas operation. Throughout this period, Vistra has maintained its disciplined capital allocation approach, returning over $5.9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends while maintaining target leverage ratios below 3x net debt-to-EBITDA.
VST company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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