Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Earnings

Management highlights

• Strategic Growth Milestones - Reached final investment decision (FID) for CP2 Phase 2 with $8.6 billion project financing, bringing total CP2 project financing to $20.7 billion, the largest standalone project financing ever completed. Management expects Venture Global to become the largest LNG producer in North America by the end of 2027, with line of sight to over 100 million tons of annual production by 2030. - On track for commercial operation date (COD) of Plaquemines Phase 1 in Q4 2026, with first LNG from CP2 still targeted for the second half of 2027. - Updated development plan to expand full CP2 to 12 trains (10 MTPA); Plaquemines bolt-on expansion remains at ~6.4 MTPA with optionality for additional trains based on market conditions. First CP2 expansion FID is targeted for early 2027, with Plaquemines expansion FID targeted for mid-2027. • Commercial & Operational Achievements - Total contracted long and medium-term capacity reached 52 MTPA, representing approximately $137 billion in revenue backlog. 2026 contracted portfolio increased to 84% from 69% at the Q4 2025 earnings call. - Set a new quarterly record with 130 safely exported cargoes in Q1 2026; has not missed a single scheduled cargo since Calcasieu Pass reached one-year COD, with over 150 contracted cargoes exported to date. Cargo exports grew 166% over the past two years, with expected additional 130% growth from current levels by 2028. - Completed post-quarter capital structure optimization: refinanced $1.6 billion Stone Peak preferred equity with a lower-interest, tax-efficient term loan B, and issued $750 million in new Calcasieu Pass bonds to repay remaining construction loan balance, repaying all original project launch debt. Total 2026 capital raising to date exceeds $11 billion. - Secured three new offtake agreements in Q1 2026, including a 20-year deal with Hanwha Aerospace, five-year deals with Trafigura and VTOL; the VTOL deal was upsized to 1.7 MTPA from 1.5 MTPA, and a new 0.85 MTPA five-year deal with Total Energies was announced during the call. • Capital Allocation Priorities - Near-term: Prioritize reinvestment in high-return bolt-on expansion and adjacent infrastructure; reduce leverage across all operating companies to reach investment grade ratings; continue simplifying the corporate capital structure. More than $900 million in debt has already been repaid at Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, with over $500 million in CP2 bridge loan repaid since January 2026. - Long-term: Continue investing in bolt-on opportunities; refinance and retire higher-cost debt as it matures; grow the dividend and potentially initiate share repurchases to return additional capital to shareholders.

Guidance

• Consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 was substantially upwardly revised to $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion, from the prior guidance range of $5.2 billion to $5.8 billion. The new guidance assumes an average liquefaction fee of $9.50 to $10.50 per MBTU for remaining 2026 unsold cargoes, aligned with current TTF and JKM forward price expectations. - EBITDA sensitivity to $1 per MBTU changes in average liquefaction fees has decreased materially to $300 million to $350 million per $1 move, down from $575 million to $625 million per $1 move reported at year-end 2025, reflecting the higher 84% contracted position for 2026. - Management expects Plaquemines Phase 1 to reach investment grade rating shortly after COD in Q4 2026, with the full company expected to reach investment grade across all operating entities as earnings and assets grow over the next 12 to 18 months. - 2026 capital expenditure guidance is maintained at $12 billion to $13 billion, all covered by existing project financing tied to long-term offtake contracts.

Segment performance

Venture Global reports consolidated results for the first quarter of 2026, with no breakdown of revenue by product segment provided in the transcript. Consolidated revenue was $4.6 billion, up $1.7 billion from $2.9 billion in Q1 2025. The revenue increase was driven by $3.1 billion from higher sales volumes (481 TBTU in Q1 2026 vs 228 TBTU in Q1 2025), partially offset by $1.4 billion from lower net LNG sales prices. Income from operations was $1.2 billion, a $71 million year-over-year increase from $1.1 billion in Q1 2025. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $488 million, a $92 million increase from $396 million in Q1 2025. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion, a $26 million (2%) increase from $1.3 billion in Q1 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 30% for the quarter. Total assets at the end of Q1 2026 were $56 billion, up over $11 billion year-over-year.

Risks & headwinds

• Global LNG supply risk: Approximately 13 million tons (3% of global LNG production) remains offline long-term amid Middle East supply disruptions, including damaged Qatari liquefaction trains and uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz operations. The 49 million ton Northfield Qatar expansion is already delayed, and further delays are expected due to supply chain constraints and skilled labor shortages as Qatar works to restore disrupted production. • Market price volatility: Near-term market price volatility is heightened by geopolitical uncertainty, which has caused pent-up buying demand as customers delay purchases in anticipation of potential conflict resolution. Low EU gas inventory levels (near multi-year lows after a cold winter) must be rebuilt before the next winter, increasing market exposure to winter price swings. • Project execution uncertainty: While CP2 construction is progressing well ahead of the current 2H2027 first LNG target, management has not yet updated the timeline to pull forward first production, citing a need for further progress on large component delivery and site integration before refining projections. • Permitting and market risk: Bolt-on expansion size remains partially contingent on regulatory permitting progress and market demand for additional contracted capacity.

Analyst Q&A

• Q: How did the new VTOL and Total Energies medium-term contracts come together, and will Venture Global's cost advantage continue to drive more new contracts? What is the impact of growing Permian Waha gas glut on Gulf Coast feed gas costs for Venture Global?

  A: The five-year contract term was a planned transition, enabled by progress on Plaquemines and CP2 construction that gave management confidence in near-term production capacity. These deals are initially supported by Plaquemines output, shifting to CP2 commissioning cargoes as the project comes online, allowing the company to term out future production at prices roughly double long-term 20-year contract levels, improving overall portfolio returns. Management has built custom large-scale nitrogen removal units and pipeline interconnects that uniquely allow it to absorb high-nitrogen Waha Permian gas, so increased Permian output will further expand Venture Global's cost advantage when CP2 comes online.

• Q: Why aren't global LNG prices higher amid current supply disruptions, and what is the level of conservatism in the current CP2 first LNG timeline?

  A: Near-term purchasing is paused as customers wait for potential geopolitical resolution and hope for price declines, even though historically low storage levels mean pent-up buying will eventually be required to refill inventories ahead of next winter. This buying will be spread out over an extended period, creating sustained price uplift. CP2 construction is progressing very well 10 months post-FID, with 12 trains already on foundations, but management wants to wait for more large component delivery and integration work before refining or pulling forward the current 2H2027 first LNG timeline.

• Q: What is Venture Global's plan for reaching investment grade leverage across all operating entities, and how have customer conversations evolved?

  A: Management's target is to achieve investment grade ratings at all operating and parent company levels. Plaquemines Phase 1 is expected to reach investment grade shortly after Q4 2026 COD, with the parent company expected to reach investment grade as earnings and assets grow through 2027. As a reliable producer able to offer short, medium, and long-term contracts (a unique market position), Venture Global has expanded its counterparty base to include a wide range of established, conservative offtakers alongside new entrants, with growing contracting activity amid current market uncertainty.

• Q: Why was the CP2 bolt-on expansion increased from 6.4 MTPA to 10 MTPA, and will this expansion size be locked in after permitting?

  A: The size increase was driven by stronger than expected demand for medium and long-term capacity, which makes the larger expansion comfortable to execute and finance. The expansion fits within the existing completed CP2 perimeter wall, only requiring additional pretreatment capacity and power generation. The Plaquemines expansion remains at 6.4 MTPA as its first phase, with optionality for additional trains if demand remains strong. The permitting was filed for multiple expansion phases, so size can be adjusted to match market demand.