Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) Earnings
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. is expected to report next earnings on August 18, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.90. SQM has beaten EPS estimates in 1 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -25.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | $1.78 | $1.28 | -28.1% | $1.8B | +3.9% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | $0.69 | $0.63 | -9.4% | $1.2B | -4.4% |
| Aug 20, 2025 | $0.52 | $0.31 | -40.4% | $1.0B | -15.7% |
| May 28, 2025 | $0.63 | $0.48 | -23.8% | $1.0B | -7.0% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | $0.52 | $0.42 | -19.2% | $1.1B | +6.1% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | $0.66 | $0.46 | -30.3% | $1.1B | +0.8% |
| Aug 21, 2024 | $0.99 | $0.75 | -24.2% | $1.3B | +2.8% |
| May 23, 2024 | $-1.72 | $0.80 | +146.5% | $1.1B | -4.0% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $1.16 | $0.71 | -38.8% | $1.3B | -2.2% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | $2.11 | $1.68 | -20.4% | $1.8B | -6.9% |
| Aug 16, 2023 | $2.53 | $2.03 | -19.8% | $2.1B | -6.1% |
| May 18, 2023 | $3.05 | $2.63 | -13.8% | $2.3B | -6.6% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 26, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Overall Performance - SQM reported strong Q1 2026 results across all core business lines - The Novandino Lithium partnership with Codelco completed its first full quarter of full-capacity operations, demonstrating long-term commitment to responsible development of Salar de Atacama lithium resources and shared value for shareholders, Chile, and local communities ### Lithium Operations - Global lithium demand is projected to exceed 1.9 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026, with market dynamics pointing to a tight supply-demand balance - Novandino Lithium delivered solid Q1 sales volumes, with expected quarter-over-quarter growth through 2026; the Salar Futuro expansion project is on track to begin environmental permitting in the coming months - International Lithium's Australian operations (Mount Holland) are running at full capacity, with the Quinana Refinery ramp-up progressing; full commercial operation is expected in 2027 ### Iodine and Plant Nutrition Operations - Iodine spot prices continue rising, particularly in Asian markets, and the segment expects the strong performance trend to continue into Q2 - Specialty plant nutrition is benefiting from reduced Chinese potassium nitrate exports that created global supply gaps, which SQM has the capacity, inventory, and supply chain to fill ### Partnership Milestone - Novandino Lithium generated over $530 million for the Chilean state in Q1 2026 via payments to Corfo, taxes, and local government transfers, highlighting the partnership's broad economic benefits
Guidance
- **Lithium sales volume guidance**: Upwardly revised to 15% year-over-year growth in 2026 (compared to 2025), with full-year total volumes expected to exceed 270,000 metric tons. Management expects Q2 2026 sales volumes to surpass Q1 2026 volumes by over 10%, hitting a record quarterly volume. Average realized Q2 2026 lithium prices are expected to be higher than Q1 2026 levels. - **Specialty Plant Nutrition sales volume guidance**: Upwardly revised to 10% year-over-year growth in 2026 (from prior guidance of 2-3% growth), driven by Chinese potassium nitrate export restrictions. Management expects potassium nitrate prices to continue increasing through the remainder of 2026. - **Iodine guidance**: Full-year 2026 sales volumes are expected to be broadly in line with 2025 levels or slightly higher; management expects current elevated price levels to be sustained amid growing demand and limited new supply. Full-capacity operations will continue to be prioritized. - **Salar Futuro project timeline**: Environmental permitting is expected to begin in the coming months, with final approval expected by 2029, and construction investment to start in 2030, in line with the original joint plan with Codelco. Initial estimated total CapEx for the project is ~$3 billion.
Segment performance
1. **Lithium**: Total Q1 2026 sales volumes increased 25% year-over-year to 69,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. Average realized sales price in Q1 2026 was ~$18 per kilo, up from $10 per kilo in Q4 2025. The Novandino Lithium partnership (with Codelco) completed its first full quarter of operations, generating over $530 million in contributions to the Chilean state. The Mount Holland mine and concentrator (Australia, International Lithium division) are operating at full capacity. No revenue contribution percentages were provided in the transcript. 2. **Specialty Plant Nutrition**: The segment saw improved demand driven by Chinese potassium nitrate export restrictions, which created international supply gaps that SQM is positioned to fill. 3. **Iodine**: Delivered a strong Q1 2026, with rising spot prices particularly in Asian markets. The Nueva Victoria seawater pipeline is currently under commissioning to support future production capacity growth.
Risks & headwinds
- Lithium prices are currently in a highly volatile scenario, and cannot be reliably predicted beyond Q2 2026 - Broad global inflation, geopolitical instability from conflicts like the Iran war, and rising raw material and construction costs are expected to increase total CapEx for the Salar Futuro project, though management notes that the corresponding increase in product prices is expected to offset this impact on project returns - It is uncertain how long Chinese potassium nitrate export restrictions will remain in place, creating uncertainty for the duration of SQM's current supply opportunity - There is permitting uncertainty for the Mount Holland expansion in Australia, with the public review and appeals period ongoing as of the call - Iodine segment cost increases in Q1 2026 came from higher utilization of higher-cost marginal production facilities, ramp-up costs for the Maria Elena project, and higher fuel costs driven by global geopolitical events
Analyst Q&A
Q: What is SQM's view on mid-cycle lithium pricing after recent price movements, and how does the firm plan to deploy windfall free cash flow from higher lithium prices, specifically regarding a return of special dividends?
A: SQM's Q1 2026 average lithium price was $18 per kilo, up from $10 per kilo in Q4 2025, with prices linked to market indexes, so Q2 prices are expected to be higher than Q1. Pricing beyond Q2 is unpredictable due to high volatility. SQM ended Q1 with higher cash balances, but has already paid out 50% of 2025 net income as dividends, plus required Corfo and tax payments. The board has not made a decision on additional special dividends yet, but continues to assess distribution opportunities.
Q: Why has China restricted potassium nitrate exports, how sustainable is this gap, and will new iodine supply disrupt current high iodine pricing?
A: The 10% volume growth guidance for plant nutrition is driven entirely by China's late-March potassium nitrate export suspension, which opened new market opportunities for SQM. It is unclear how long the restriction will last, but SQM has sufficient capacity and inventory to meet additional demand while the gap remains. Current high iodine pricing is not comparable to the price spike 12 years ago: the market is larger, demand from high-growth segments like contrast media has grown, and new marginal supply has higher production costs. Demand is growing 3% annually with no new near-term supply, so prices are expected to stay elevated.
Q: What is the CapEx, timing, and inflation impact for the Salar Futuro lithium project?
A: The environmental study will be filed by the end of Q2 2026, with final approval expected in 2029 and construction starting in 2030, in line with the original Codelco partnership timeline. Initial total CapEx is estimated at $3 billion. While global inflation and geopolitical conflict are expected to increase project costs, corresponding inflation-driven increases in lithium and other product prices will offset the impact, so project returns are not expected to be materially harmed.
Q: When will the Mount Holland lithium expansion move forward, and what is the 2027 CapEx commitment?
A: The expansion plan will be presented to the SQM board for approval in early Q3 2026. Permitting is progressing through public review, which closes May 28, 2026, after which the company will confirm if any appeals have been filed. SQM's share of 2027 CapEx for the expansion is planned at $200 million, and the existing mine and concentrator continue to operate at full capacity during permitting.