Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Earnings

Management highlights

- **Structural Competitive Advantages** • The company has reserved all required launch capacity through 2028, eliminating the launch access constraints that are limiting growth for most peer satellite operators, and enabling on-schedule scaling of RF geolocation (RFGL) collection capacity, weather payload deployment, and commercial service delivery. • Spire operates transatlantic manufacturing facilities across the U.S., UK, and Europe, with a new Munich facility recently opened. This dual-continent footprint meets growing sovereign local production requirements for defense procurement, a rare capability that narrows the competitive field for large government contracts. • Pure-play scaled multi-domain RF intelligence is increasingly recognized as a strategic, scarce capability, with customers now prioritizing providers that can deliver at scale with verified on-orbit performance and sovereign-ready manufacturing, matching Spire's positioning. - **Q1 2026 Operational Milestones** • 19 new satellites deployed across two launches, expanding RFGL collection capacity with six new satellite pairings. Demonstrated single-satellite geolocation for S-band and X-band signals (critical for defense missions), a capability that previously required multiple coordinated satellites, reducing constellation costs and expanding the addressable defense market. • Secured five new U.S. RFGL orders and signed three new international RFGL customers, moving RFGL from technical demonstration to revenue-generating commercial product. • The new hyperspectral microwave sounder weather demonstrator achieved first light, is already delivering data that meets or exceeds technical targets to end customers, and is being included in ongoing discussions with NOAA and allied meteorological agencies. • Commercial segment shows two structural positive trends: new commercial contracts are shifting to longer multi-year subscription terms, and existing commercial customers are expanding data usage into new workflows and business units, increasing customer stickiness and revenue compounding. Integration with Amadeus to support 400+ global airlines is a key Q1 example. • Partnered with the European Space Agency (with contributions from UK and Italian space agencies) to develop an AI-based real-time satellite health monitoring, anomaly detection, and predictive failure system, a capability that will grow in value as industry constellations scale. - **Upcoming Near-Term Catalysts** • Multiple 2026 NOAA microwave sounding proposals were submitted in May 2026, representing $50 million in in-year opportunities. Spire can deliver four of the seven data types covered by NOAA's $8 billion multi-year IDIQ contract, a broader capability than most competing commercial providers. The existing $11.2 million 2025 NOAA radio occultation contract is in full execution, with expected scope expansion and revenue uplift in 2026. • German RF intelligence procurement will move forward in the second half of 2026, with European defense budgets growing at a 16% CAGR to hit a target of €800 billion annually within five years. Spire's transatlantic manufacturing footprint is a key competitive differentiator for these European contracts. • Full operational status for the new RFGL collection capacity added in Q1 launches will be reached through Q2 and Q3 2026, driving the expected second-half revenue acceleration. - **Long-Term Market Outlook** • Microwave sounding is a foundational input for weather model accuracy, with legacy government satellites costing billions per generation. NOAA is explicitly moving to purchase commercial data rather than building new bespoke government systems, creating a multi-billion dollar total addressable market over the next decade. Spire's sensor captures more frequency bands and greater atmospheric depth than legacy government systems. • The international defense RFGL pipeline follows a multi-year multi-step process (pilot → data subscription → full constellation deployment), so 2025-2026 pilot awards are leading indicators for 2027-2028 revenue. • Commercial revenue compounds as customers embed Spire's data into core operational workflows, creating a stable installed base that grows with new use cases.

Guidance

- Full-year 2026 guidance is unchanged from prior updates: revenue is expected to be in the range of $75 million to $85 million, representing over 50% year-over-year growth on an ex-maritime basis at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains negative $26 million to negative $20.7 million, and non-GAAP operating loss guidance remains negative $37.8 million to negative $32.6 million. • Approximately 76% of the 2026 revenue guidance range is already under contract, with additional visibility from contracted sole-source procurements where Spire is the expected awardee, providing high confidence in the guidance range. • The company is shifting from quarterly guidance to annual-only guidance going forward, driven by the fact that large government and enterprise contracts close on customer timelines that do not align with 90-day calendar quarters, and quarterly guidance creates unhelpful noise rather than clear signal. Underlying annual forecasting visibility has not changed. • Adjusted EBITDA breakeven continues to be targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 to first quarter of 2027 timeframe, with positive operating cash flow expected sometime in 2027. Faster pipeline conversion will accelerate these cash flow targets.

Segment performance

GAAP total revenue for Q1 2026 was $15.8 million, which exceeded the high end of the company's prior guidance range. Core revenue excluding maritime revenue was $13.9 million, representing 13% year-over-year growth, driven primarily by civil government purchases of weather data. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 44%, a 5 percentage point improvement year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA also came in above the high end of guidance, supported by stronger-than-expected revenue and disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow burn was $26.2 million in the quarter, with elevated cash use driven by planned working capital timing and one-time high legal and professional fees. The company exited Q1 2026 with $50 million in cash and marketable securities, and closed a $65.5 million net proceeds private placement shortly after quarter-end, leaving the company debt-free with sufficient cash to fund growth through adjusted EBITDA breakeven.

Risks & headwinds

- The primary remaining risk identified by management is satellite deployment and delivery execution risk. • Elevated legal and professional fees in Q1 increased operating cash burn, though these costs are expected to decline through 2026, with the largest reductions coming in the second half of the year. • European defense procurement timelines are slower and more variable than U.S. procurement, creating uncertainty around the timing of revenue recognition for international RFGL contracts.

Analyst Q&A

• Q: What is the current revenue status of RFGL, how large is the overall opportunity, and when will the Munich facility reach full 100-satellite capacity, and how does it position Spire for the Uriallo project? /

  A: Management confirmed RFGL is already generating revenue today, with growing pipeline in both the U.S. and Europe including incremental awards from the NRO. The facility in Munich is open, with Uriallo satellites being the first integrated there, kicking off operations. Total annual capacity across all Spire manufacturing facilities is 300 to 400 satellites, and the transatlantic footprint is a core competitive differentiator for European sovereign contracts.

• Q: What is the typical timeline and size range for RFGL deals, and has the hyperspectral microwave sounder met NOAA's data quality requirements? /

  A: U.S. RFGL deals can move very quickly (within weeks), while European deals follow slower country-specific procurement timelines. Pilot deals are typically in the mid six-figure range, with many data subscription deals reaching seven figures, and sovereign constellation deals growing larger from there. Management confirmed the sounder has met and exceeded all technical targets, is already delivering paid data to customers, and the NOAA opportunity is much larger and more advanced than in prior years.

• Q: What four data types can Spire deliver under NOAA's $8 billion IDIQ, and what is the update on Uriallo satellite production? /

  A: The IDIQ covers seven total data types, four of which Spire can deliver. NOAA's top priorities are radio occultation and microwave sounding, which Spire can provide, with reflectometry and ocean surface winds as the next priority NOAA areas where Spire also has capability. Uriallo satellite integration is on track to start in Munich later this month, and the program received additional budget from recent European ministerial allocations, with ongoing development work continuing across consortium partners.

• Q: Will expanding NOAA opportunities require significant new capital expenditure for new satellite classes or orbits, and are there government NRE opportunities to support development? /

  A: Spire already has sufficient on-orbit capacity for near-term NOAA opportunities, the hyperspectral microwave sounder fits Spire's standard satellite form factor, and all new capabilities can be added to Spire's existing platform without costly new development. The initial HIMSS sounder development was already supported by government NRE under a customer contract, and future expansion will occur through ongoing routine constellation replenishment rather than large one-off capital projects.