Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Earnings
Super Group (SGHC) Limited is expected to report next earnings on September 3, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.21. SGHC has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -54.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | $0.17 | $0.17 | -2.1% | $612M | +4.7% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | $0.13 | $0.11 | -15.4% | $682M | +28.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.09 | $0.12 | +33.3% | $567M | +27.2% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $0.03 | $-0.04 | -233.3% | $407M | +3.2% |
| Mar 6, 2024 | $0.01 | $-0.10 | -1015.4% | $396M | +16.2% |
| Nov 9, 2023 | $0.01 | $0.04 | +233.3% | $376M | +9.1% |
| Aug 17, 2023 | $0.02 | $0.07 | +250.0% | $415M | +10.2% |
| May 24, 2023 | $-0.01 | $-0.01 | -100.0% | $368M | +3.2% |
| Mar 14, 2023 | $0.07 | $0.03 | -64.0% | $354M | +18.0% |
| Nov 22, 2022 | $0.08 | $0.06 | -25.0% | $301M | +19.2% |
| Aug 11, 2022 | $0.11 | $0.12 | +9.1% | $336M | -11.7% |
| May 25, 2022 | $0.08 | $0.03 | -62.5% | $370M | -1.7% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 12, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- **Overall Business Performance** * Q1 2026 delivered all-time high quarterly revenue, record average monthly active customers of 6.4 million (up 18% YoY, with a 6.5 million peak in March), and growth in total wagering of 23% for sports and 20% for casino compared to last year. * 80% of the company's total revenue comes from predictable, high-quality recurring annuity streams, with the casino business acting as a stable core profit driver. * The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $422 million in cash as of quarter end, up 20% YoY, despite returning $152 million to shareholders via dividends. Free cash flow conversion remains a strong 75%, supporting an increased minimum quarterly dividend target of $0.05 per share. - **Product and Strategic Initiatives** * The company has strengthened sports trading and risk management capabilities ahead of the 2026 World Cup, implementing changes to improve margin resilience in promotions, pricing, and payout structures, which proved effective during a customer-friendly high-outcome month in February 2026. * The ZAR Supercoin consumer wallet had a soft beta launch for Betway South Africa customers in mid-April, with planned additional exchange listings in Q2 to improve liquidity and expand customer ecosystem utility. The initiative is also expected to reduce high processing fees, a major post-tax cost for African operations. * The Apricot transaction was closed at the end of February 2026, bringing full ownership of sportsbook intellectual property in-house, with over 100 development resources moving to Supergroup to improve product speed, flexibility, and efficiency. * AI is being deployed across the business to improve efficiency in risk and fraud management, product development, financial reconciliation, and disclosure, with disciplined governance frameworks in place. * The C-suite leadership team has been strengthened with key new hires: Kirsty Ross as Chief Operating Officer, Justin Stock as Head of Commercial and M&A, alongside existing CTO Alon Ben David, to drive operational efficiency and strategic growth. - **Regional Updates** * In the UK, the company gained market share driven by product improvements and a strong performance during the Cheltenham Festival, delivering 29% YoY revenue growth despite a new UK tax that took effect in April 2026. * Alberta, Canada is on track for regulated launch in July 2026 with a more favorable regulatory transition than Ontario, allowing phased customer migration rather than an immediate big-bang switchover. * Nigeria, Africa's most populous market with improving currency liquidity, is a top strategic growth priority, with the company targeting at least 2-3x business expansion in 2026 via product optimization and flexible build-or-buy strategies.
Guidance
- Management reaffirmed its full year 2026 guidance, maintaining prior targets rather than raising the guidance despite a strong Q1 beat and current performance tracking above internal expectations. - The reaffirmed targets are: total full year revenue of at least $2.55 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of more than $680 million. - Management stated they do not have a practice of updating guidance early in the year, preferring to focus on execution rather than revising predictions prematurely, even with positive early momentum. - Q2 2026 is tracking positively, with the expanded 48-team 2026 World Cup (with 63% more matches than prior tournaments, held across June and July) expected to act as a strong growth catalyst for the remainder of the first half.
Segment performance
Supergroup implemented a new two-segment reporting structure for Q1 2026: 1. **Africa Segment**: Revenue grew 53% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $98 million, an increase of 21% year-over-year. Sports wagering rose 33% YoY, and casino wagering rose 36% YoY. This segment contributed approximately 57% of total company adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Key markets include South Africa, Botswana, and Nigeria, where growth execution is being ramped up. 2. **International Segment**: Revenue grew 9% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA growing 26% YoY to $73 million, accounting for approximately 43% of total company adjusted EBITDA. Within this segment: European revenue grew 18% YoY (driven by 29% growth in the UK, 13% growth in Ireland); North America (excluding the U.S.) grew 15% YoY (16% growth in Canada ex-Ontario, 22% growth in Alberta); Rest of World grew 8% YoY, with New Zealand returning to 6% growth after a 5% decline last quarter. Total company revenue for Q1 2026 was a record $612 million, up 18% YoY, with total adjusted EBITDA of $152 million, up 36% YoY.
Risks & headwinds
- Outcome volatility in sports wagering: Early rounds of the 2026 World Cup could face margin pressure if underdogs or unexpected outcomes (favorites drawing or losing to smaller teams) lead to large customer payouts, though the large volume of matches and strong cross-sell to casino is expected to offset this risk. - Regulatory risk: The company faces ongoing implementation of new local regulations across multiple markets, including Ireland (expected H2 2026) and Alberta (launching July 2026), with uncertainty around compliance costs and market access terms. - New initiative adoption risk: ZAR Supercoin is a new consumer product, and broad customer adoption may take longer than expected, with varying cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks across different African markets that could slow rollout beyond South Africa. - UK tax impact: The new UK tax on gambling operators that took effect in April 2026 was initially estimated to reduce annual EBITDA by ~$30 million before mitigation, though early data suggests mitigation steps (operating leverage, marketing efficiency) are softening the impact, full year impacts remain uncertain as the industry adapts to the new tax regime. - Competitive risk: Increasing competition across key North American markets (including Ontario) could pressure customer acquisition costs and market share.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Why did management choose to reaffirm rather than raise full-year guidance after a strong Q1 beat?
A: Management stated that the original guidance targets of >$2.55 billion revenue and >$680 million EBITDA remain confident even after the strong start. The company has a longstanding policy of not adjusting guidance this early in the year, as only 25% of the year is complete, and prioritizes consistent execution over frequent forecast changes. Management also noted they avoid the "beat and raise" guidance treadmill common in the industry.
Q: What is the expected impact of the 2026 World Cup, and how much cross-sell of new sports bettors to casino can be expected?
A: This expanded 48-team World Cup has 63% more matches than the 2022 tournament, and 88% of the company's 2025 revenue comes from participating markets, so it will drive very high customer engagement. The company has already pre-updated its product and trading capabilities ahead of the tournament. Historical data shows 60-70% of incremental sports bettors are cross-sold to the company's casino products, making the World Cup catalyst durable for long-term revenue.
Q: What is the margin expansion outlook for the Africa segment as it grows?
A: Africa has lower marketing spend as a percentage of revenue than the international segment due to localized, bespoke marketing with strong returns. Targeted product fit and pricing optimization for local markets also supports margin expansion. Cross-functional cost sharing (including shared software, call centers, risk and fraud operations) between the Africa and international segments is driving incremental cost synergies that will boost margins as revenue scales.
Q: What is the company's approach to M&A given its strong balance sheet?
A: The company's base plan relies on organic growth, so M&A is only pursued as an incremental bonus if the right opportunity emerges at the right price. Management remains highly disciplined, will not overpay for acquisitions, and focuses on bolt-on opportunities that improve the core business or deliver vertical efficiencies in technology or marketing. The company's strong balance sheet and high free cash flow conversion give it flexibility to pursue opportunities without taking on excessive debt that would pressure performance.