Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Earnings
Rio Tinto Group is expected to report next earnings on July 29, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.87. RIO has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -2.7% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026 | $3.71 | $3.31 | -10.8% | $30.6B | +1.5% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $3.12 | $2.79 | -10.6% | $27.1B | +3.1% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $3.23 | $3.51 | +8.7% | $26.9B | -1.8% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | $3.49 | $3.56 | +2.0% | $26.8B | -0.9% |
| Jul 26, 2023 | $3.59 | $3.14 | -12.5% | $26.7B | +0.5% |
| Feb 22, 2023 | $2.97 | $2.26 | -23.9% | $27.0B | +8.9% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | $5.01 | $5.47 | +9.2% | $29.8B | +1.9% |
| Feb 23, 2022 | $5.84 | $5.44 | -6.8% | $30.7B | +2.2% |
| Jul 28, 2021 | $7.48 | $7.56 | +1.1% | $33.1B | -0.6% |
| Mar 2, 2021 | $4.56 | $3.89 | -14.7% | $24.8B | -2.0% |
| Jul 29, 2020 | $2.42 | $2.04 | -15.7% | $19.4B | +0.4% |
| Feb 28, 2020 | $3.27 | $2.40 | -26.6% | $22.7B | -0.7% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2025 · February 19, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
Safety: We stopped all site works and construction activities at Simandou, started an independent investigation, and appointed an independent safety advisory panel. Financial performance: We delivered an industry-leading 8% equivalent increase in copper equivalent production, underlying EBITDA increased by 9% to $25.4 billion, and returned 60% of underlying earnings ($6.5 billion) to shareholders. Operational performance: Pilbara mines rebounded strongly from cyclones and set production records. Project progress: Oyu Tolgoi underground development complete, first shipment of iron ore from Simandou, lithium projects targeting 200,000 tonnes per annum by 2028. Capital discipline: Plan to deliver $5 billion to $10 billion in cash proceeds from our asset base, actively testing the market for RTIT and the Borates businesses. No value creation agreement with Glencore as concluded we couldn't reach an agreement delivering value for Rio Tinto shareholders.
Guidance
2026 volume growth will be more muted at around 3% across our managed operations, offset by closures at Arvida, Diavik and the midyear curtailment at Yarwun, and an expected grade decline at Escondida. We expect the aggregate volume and cost improvements, net of headwinds, to be a material uplift on the initial $650 million already identified. Iron ore 2026 guidance $23.50 to $25 per tonne. Copper 2026 guidance comparable to 2025. Aluminum sustained stability. Lithium focuses on delivering in-flight projects to reach around 200,000 tonnes per annum by 2028. CapEx guidance up to $11 billion for next 2 years then stepping down to $10 billion.
Segment performance
Iron ore delivered $15.2 billion of EBITDA. The product strategy has been successfully introduced to the market, aligning sales to our system, and we've seen strong cost control reflected in unit costs, in line with guidance at $23.50 per tonne. For 2026, we're guiding to $23.50 to $25 per tonne, reflecting in part the impact of a stronger Australian dollar. Copper was the standout, with EBITDA more than doubling to $7.4 billion, driven by higher prices and rising volumes. Shipments were up 60% at OT, where the underground development project is now complete. Unit costs were down 53% and 2026 guidance is comparable to 2025. Aluminum sustained its impressive record of stability, in particular, for smelting and bauxite where we set a new production record. And we took advantage of stronger markets, leading to a step-change in financial performance with EBITDA up 20%. Now our commercial team continues to proactively optimize our vertically integrated position in the changing tariff environment. It was the first year for our new lithium business, which is clearly not yet a significant contributor, but as set out at the December deep-dive, we'll focus on delivering the in-flight projects, which will bring us to a meaningful capacity of around 200,000 tonnes by 2028.
Risks & headwinds
Safety risk at Simandou due to the recent fatality, need to improve safety culture. Geopolitical risks in different operating jurisdictions. Volatility in lithium prices. Changes in the iron ore market.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Myles Allsop asked about Glencore talks and owning coal.
A: Simon Trott said learned through processes, discussions were for full perimeter, didn't get there on value.
Q: Alain Gabriel asked about streaming and cost cutting.
A: Peter Cunningham said options across portfolio to release capital, cost-cutting is multiyear program across all businesses.
Q: Paul Young asked about Glencore and Brazil aluminum deal.
A: Simon Trott said strategic rationale for Brazil aluminum deal was to add value and growth to aluminum business.
Q: Ephrem Ravi asked about Simandou safety and lithium.
A: Simon Trott said focused on improving safety at Simandou and lithium prices volatile but look at long-term.
Q: Glyn Lawcock asked about measuring value with Glencore.
A: Simon Trott said focus on underlying value, look at data points for potential transaction.
Q: Rahul Anand asked about iron ore cost-out and negotiations.
A: Simon Trott said compare on apples-to-apples, ongoing conversations with customers.
Q: Robert Stein asked about copper unit cost and copper growth.
A: Peter Cunningham said used appropriate estimates for copper unit cost, and copper growth through projects.
Q: Christopher LaFemina asked about geopolitical risk.
A: Simon Trott said value drives decision, diversified model helps mitigate risk.
Q: Alan Spence asked about dividend.
A: Peter Cunningham said comfortable with dividend policy.
Q: Ian Rossouw asked about Glencore synergies and marketing.
A: Simon Trott said synergies one data point, marketing front end is thought about.
Q: Liam Fitzpatrick asked about Chinalco.
A: Simon Trott said continue to engage with Chinalco.
Q: Matthew Greene asked about valuation and re-rate.
A: Simon Trott said valuation forward-looking, comes back to cash accretion for Rio shareholders.
Q: Benjamin Davis asked about mineral sands and Yarwun.
A: Simon Trott said patient with asset sales, currently moving Yarwun with low single digits spend.