Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Earnings
Moderna, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on July 31, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-2.01. MRNA has beaten EPS estimates in 11 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +45.3% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | $-3.02 | $-1.18 | +60.9% | $389M | +64.6% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | $-2.60 | $-2.11 | +18.8% | $678M | +141.0% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $-1.87 | $-0.51 | +72.7% | $1.0B | +10.3% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $-2.99 | $-2.13 | +28.8% | $142M | -84.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | $-2.92 | $-2.52 | +13.7% | $107M | -8.3% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | $-2.68 | $-2.50 | +6.7% | $956M | +1.4% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $-1.91 | $0.03 | +101.6% | $1.9B | +48.4% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $-3.35 | $-3.33 | +0.6% | $241M | +87.7% |
| May 2, 2024 | $-3.56 | $-3.07 | +13.8% | $167M | +79.1% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | $-0.97 | $0.55 | +156.7% | $2.8B | +12.0% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | $-2.01 | $-1.39 | +30.8% | $1.8B | +38.3% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $-3.84 | $-3.62 | +5.7% | $344M | +7.6% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 1, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
Chief executive officer Stéphane Boncel started with review of first quarter, noting significant year-over-year revenue growth driven by long-term strategic partnership with UK government, reiterated up to 10% growth in 2026. Jamie Mock covered financial results, stating Q1 revenue $400 million, above guidance, and second quarter revenue expectation. Stephen Hogue reviewed commercial outlook, including delivery under UK strategic partnership, EU regulatory approvals, progress in U.S. flu program, and oncology pipeline progress like Entismeran's new phase three trial in non-small cell lung cancer and updates on other clinical trials.
Guidance
Expect total revenue to grow up to 10% in 2026, geographic mix roughly 50% U.S. and 50% international. Cost-to-sales projection includes $0.9 billion litigation settlement charge, without which cost-to-sales projection unchanged. R\u0026D expenses anticipated to be approximately $3 billion, SG\u0026A expenses approximately $1 billion flat. Expect to end 2026 with $4.5 to $5 billion of cash and investments. No material impacts from Middle East conflict to 2026 financial outlook.
Segment performance
For the first quarter, total revenue was $400 million, a $300 million increase versus the prior year. Geographic mix was approximately 80% from international markets and 20% from the United States. Second quarter revenue is expected to be between $50 and $100 million, evenly split between U.S. and international markets. Full-year revenue growth target is up to 10% which is reiterated. Cost of sales for the quarter was $955 million including $878 million related to litigation settlement. Excluding litigation settlement, cost of sales was $77 million, a 14% year-over-year decline. R\u0026D expenses were $649 million, a 24% decrease. SG\u0026A expenses were $173 million, an 18% decrease. Net loss for the quarter was $1.3 billion, but excluding litigation settlement, net loss was $0.5 billion.
Risks & headwinds
Litigation risk: entered into settlement agreement with Arbutus and Genobon, will make $950 million lump sum payment in third quarter of 2026, with potential additional payment of up to $1.3 billion if Federal Circuit affirms liability under Section 1498, but concluded loss related to this proceeding is not probable so no charge recorded. Geopolitical risks: ongoing conflict in Middle East but no material impacts seen on 2026 financial outlook currently monitored.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Salveen Richter asked about initiation of phase three study for Entismeran as monotherapy and in combination.
A: Explained strategy regarding efficacy and safety profile, aiming to intervene early in cancer treatment.
Q: Jessica with JP Morgan asked about UK contracts.
A: Delivery in first quarter was for spring campaign, second campaign planned for fall with additional delivery later in 2026.
Q: Terrence Flynn asked about timing of interim phase three of INT and adjuvant melanoma.
A: Confident of interim analysis in 2026, interim analysis is to declare early success or continue accrual, futility not part of current plan.
Q: Luca with RBC asked about legal team's view on $1.3 billion charge and FDA Flu 1010 program.
A: Legal team confident so not probable to record charge, timeline for trial resolution uncertain, Flu 1010 program progressing well towards PDUFA date.
Q: Tyler Van Vuren asked about phase three antithrombin management melanoma top line data.
A: Well-powered, range of outcomes possible from strong hazard ratio to more modest but still meaningful results.
Q: Ellie Merle asked about timing for data from RCC and muscle invasive bladder cancer.
A: Event-driven trials, can't guide exact timing yet, eager to see results to guide future steps.
Q: Michael Yee asked about INT melanoma and renal studies.
A: No statistical guidance on melanoma interim, renal study event-driven with registrational potential, DSMB to advise on next steps.
Q: Courtney Breen asked about RevRec for INT and cancer stage one.
A: Product delivered to Merck, profit split to be determined, lung cancer stage one has increasing earlier diagnoses due to screening.
Q: Jeff Meacham asked about alternative IO combo mechanisms for Entismeran and norovirus success.
A: Looking at other IO combinations in pipeline, norovirus success defined by statistical significance and meaningful vaccine efficacy.
Q: Corey Casmo asked about overall survival benefit in INT adjuvant melanoma.
A: RFS is good predictor, ASCO presentation to provide update, OS will be followed in Phase 3.
Q: Simon Baker asked about Q2 revenues split and phasing.
A: Largely COVID related, second quarter revenue expectation, phasing compared to last year's sales.
Q: Andrew Sy asked about BD and assets beyond mRNA.
A: Focused on expanding mRNA platform to new modalities, continuing to look for right opportunities to increase pipeline.
Q: Alexander Hammond asked about commercialization strategy for EU COVID flu vaccine.
A: Securing market access, pricing and reimbursement, building economic value story, hope for successful launch in 2027 and growth in 2028