Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Earnings
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is expected to report next earnings on August 4, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $11.60. MPC has beaten EPS estimates in 12 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +895.3% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | $0.74 | $1.65 | +123.3% | $34.6B | +3.4% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $2.72 | $4.07 | +49.6% | $32.8B | +5.7% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.02 | $0.77 | +3401.6% | $33.5B | +1.0% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | $2.42 | $2.58 | +6.6% | $32.7B | +2.0% |
| Jan 30, 2024 | $2.20 | $3.98 | +80.9% | $36.3B | +4.8% |
| Oct 31, 2023 | $7.75 | $8.14 | +5.0% | $41.0B | +2.5% |
| Aug 1, 2023 | $4.59 | $5.32 | +15.9% | $36.4B | +6.7% |
| May 2, 2023 | $5.74 | $6.09 | +6.1% | $34.9B | -2.0% |
| Jan 31, 2023 | $5.67 | $6.65 | +17.3% | $39.9B | +17.7% |
| Nov 1, 2022 | $7.07 | $7.81 | +10.5% | $45.8B | +27.7% |
| Aug 2, 2022 | $8.04 | $10.61 | +32.0% | $54.2B | +34.4% |
| May 3, 2022 | $1.11 | $1.49 | +34.2% | $38.4B | +24.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 5, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Operationally, refineries ran at 89% utilization with nearly 100% capture, strongest first quarter on process safety with lowest unplanned downtime this decade and 40% of full year planned maintenance completed. • Proactively enhanced operational readiness due to constructive macro backdrop. • Geopolitical events tightened global markets, with ~6 million bpd of global refined products capacity offline. • Invested ~$330 million in refining and marketing, with projects like Garyville refinery's jet production capacity increase, El Paso yield improvement, and Robinson Jet flexibility investment. • Expanded international LPG trading footprint, secured long-term delivered demand with E1. • MPLX investing over $2.4 billion, ~90% focused on natural gas and NGL opportunities, with projects like Secretariat I processing plant, sour gas treating expansion Titan, and Diamond Creek III. • Returned over $1 billion to shareholders in first quarter and announced $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
Guidance
• Second quarter outlook for refining and marketing segment focuses on executing safely and reliably, managing cost, staying responsive to market conditions. • Refining and marketing segment full-year outlook remains unchanged at $1,350,000,000. • MPLX expects to deliver 12.5% distribution growth for next two years underpinned by mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.
Segment performance
Refining and marketing segment: First quarter adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1.4 billion. Refineries ran at 89% utilization with total throughput of nearly 3 million barrels per day. Regionally, Gulf Coast utilization 89%, MidCon 88%, West Coast region 92%. Midstream segment: Segment-adjusted EBITDA decreased $122 million compared to first quarter 2025, driven by derivative losses, absence of non-recurring benefit, and divestiture of non-core assets. Renewable diesel segment: Results uplifted by stronger margin environment and recognition of clean fuel production tax credits. First quarter capture was 99%, impacted by favorable distillate margins and market-driven headwinds from secondary products and derivatives.
Risks & headwinds
• Geopolitical events can tighten global markets, disrupt trade flows, and impact return of supply of refineries. • Volatility in commodity market can affect capture performance due to secondary products and derivatives. • Market conditions can shift quickly, requiring strong planning and tight operational control to maintain performance.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs asked about second quarter utilization guide and cadence of capital return.
A: Marianne mentioned second quarter utilization planned at ~94% due to strong first quarter turnaround, low unplanned downtime, and sustainable execution. On capital return, no change to capital allocation priorities, with focus on MPLX growth and distribution, and share buyback as vehicle for returning capital.
Q: Manav Gupta with UBS asked about refining macro and capturing higher cracks.
A: Rick discussed crude sourcing with advantage barrels, purchasing advantaged SPR crude, and product optimization like max diesel and jet, and export opportunities.
Q: Sam Margolin with Wells Fargo asked about commercial constraints of yield benefits and MPLX addressing capital.
A: MPLX's capital program targeted toward NatGas and NGL, refining side with high return hurdles and projects like Garyville jet.
Q: Doug Legate with Wolf Research asked about capture sustainability and pacing of cash returns.
A: Marianne said capture affected by secondary products and derivatives, but commercial team works to expand crack. On cash returns, capital allocation unchanged, disciplined in allocation.
Q: Theresa Chen with Barclays asked about demand observations and LPG export projects.
A: Rick said demand resilient across regions, LPG export projects with third-party offtake and plans to contract more volumes.
Q: Jason Gableman with TD Cowan asked about inland and West Coast markets and intercompany contracts.
A: Rick discussed mid-con and West Coast market performance, Marianne said MPLX-MPC contracts to be renewed.
Q: Joe Latch with Morgan Stanley asked about renewable fuel and refining utilization drivers.
A: Maria discussed renewable fuel focus on controlled factors, Mike discussed low unplanned downtime and reliability projects as drivers of refining utilization performance