Moody's Corporation (MCO) Earnings
Moody's Corporation is expected to report next earnings on July 22, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $4.19. MCO has beaten EPS estimates in 11 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +4.9% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | $4.22 | $4.33 | +2.6% | $2.1B | +0.5% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $3.43 | $3.64 | +6.1% | $1.9B | +1.5% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $3.70 | $3.92 | +5.9% | $2.0B | +2.6% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $3.39 | $3.56 | +5.0% | $1.9B | +2.6% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | $3.54 | $3.83 | +8.2% | $1.9B | +2.6% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $2.27 | $2.62 | +15.4% | $1.7B | -1.8% |
| Oct 22, 2024 | $2.86 | $3.21 | +12.2% | $1.8B | +6.2% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | $3.02 | $3.28 | +8.6% | $1.8B | +5.3% |
| May 2, 2024 | $3.04 | $3.37 | +10.9% | $1.8B | +5.2% |
| Feb 13, 2024 | $2.32 | $2.19 | -5.6% | $1.5B | -0.3% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | $2.30 | $2.43 | +5.7% | $1.5B | +0.5% |
| Jul 25, 2023 | $2.24 | $2.30 | +2.7% | $1.5B | +2.9% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · April 22, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
Q1 was strong start despite geopolitical volatility, sustained revenue growth across businesses, 150bps adjusted operating margin to 53.2%, adjusted diluted EPS $4.33 up 13%, returned $1.7B via buybacks/dividends, increased full-year buyback guidance to ~$2.5B. Demand healthy: ratings issuance anchored in long-term funding needs (AI, private credit, etc.), analytics engagement strong in large strategic relationships, growing pipeline with financial institutions and hyperscaler/AI partners. Executing on strategic priorities: embedding intelligence into customer workflows drives higher retention, expanding relationships, durable recurring revenue; examples of customer wins in ratings (stable coins, blockchain, Bitcoin-backed bonds), MA (lending, KYC, insurance, compliance). Christina Kosmowski to become Moody's Analytics CEO in June, Andy Frepp as interim president
Guidance
MIS FOIA guidance unchanged; Q2 MIS revenue expected low-to-mid teens growth, adjusted diluted EPS ~$4.15 - $4.30; if volatility persists beyond April, MIS revenue growth may moderate to mid-single-digit, adjusted diluted EPS towards low end of guidance range. MA expects to close sale of regulatory solutions business on April 30th, excluding its contribution moves MA revenue to lower end of mid-single-digit guidance range; ARR and organic constant currency recurring revenue growth remain in high single-digit range; MA margins expected modest step up in Q2, more meaningful ramp in second half. MCO revenue expected in high single-digit growth range, lower end due to MA divestiture; Q2 MCO-adjusted operating margins above midpoint of Tholia guidance range for Q2 and Q3, ticking down in Q4; tax rate guidance 23%-25%, Q2 in high end; full-year buyback guidance increased to ~$2.5B
Segment performance
Moody's Analytics (MA): Q1 revenue grew 8% (reported), 6% organic constant currency; recurring revenue grew 11% (reported), 7% organic constant currency, representing 98% of total MA revenue; ARR ended Q1 at $3.6 billion, up 8% y/y; Decision Solutions is a key growth engine, KYC grew 13%, Banking AR grew 10%, Insurance AR grew 7%, Research and insights AR grew 7%, Data and information AR grew 6%; adjusted operating margin 32.5%, up 250bps y/y. Moody's Investors Service (MIS): Q1 rated issuance surpassed $2 trillion; transactional revenue grew 8% y/y; recurring revenue grew 9%; adjusted operating margin 66.7%; rated issuance led by investment-grade and private credit; investment-grade revenue up 33% y/y, speculative-grade revenue up 31% y/y, bank loan revenue declined, M&A related issuance high, public/project/infrastructure finance grew 8%, financial institutions' revenue modestly higher, structured finance revenue slightly lower; guidance unchanged for FOIA, MIS revenue expected low-to-mid teens growth in Q2, adjusted diluted EPS ~$4.15 - $4.30 if volatility persists, MIS revenue growth may moderate to mid-single-digit
Risks & headwinds
Geopolitical volatility may affect timing of ratings issuance. Regulatory pushback or concerns around regulators being comfortable with leveraging AI for ratings or in MA, especially around AI making decisions. Heightened credit concerns in private credit market could impact demand, but demand for independent credit assessment continues to increase. Volatility in financial markets beyond April could impact MIS revenue growth and EPS guidance. MA divestiture and portfolio changes could impact revenue and margin expectations if not executed as planned
Analyst Q&A
Q: George Tong with Goldman Sachs asked about how many customers are accessing Moody's data through MCP channels and monetization plans.
A: In early days, lots of trials with large financial institutions, looking to convert trials to sales, with engagement across MA segments.
Q: Scott Wurzel with Wolf Research asked about operating leverage in MIS driven by AI efficiencies.
A: Investments in technology workflow automation over past years, now adding AI to analyst workflows in financial statements spreading, data gathering, etc., enabling efficiency and margin expansion.
Q: Jeff Silber with BMO asked about pull forward or delays in MIS revenue due to volatility.
A: No extraordinary pull forward, spreads came back in, market open, some Q1 deals deferred to Q2, optimism for May-June issuance, market constructive.
Q: Andrew Nicholas with William Blair asked about gating factors on AI adoption due to regulatory pushback.
A: Active dialogue with regulators on AI use, heightened sensitivity around AI making decisions, but good engagement and strong control environment expected; analytics customers expect strong control, governance, auditability.
Q: Peter Christensen with Citi asked about private credit growth and pipeline.
A: Credit stress in market increases demand for ratings/solutions, private credit funding needs massive, some deals shift from private to public, but underlying demand for funding continues.
Q: Jason Haas with Wells Fargo asked about ARR breach from 6% to high single-digit guidance.
A: Delta from transaction revenue decline (down 56% in Q1), underlying organic recurring revenue growth accelerates through year, consistent with sales cadence, second half stronger.
Q: Sean Kennedy with Mizuho asked about KYC trends and longer-term opportunity.
A: KYC ARR grew 13%, tough comp vs Q1 2025, retention improved, growth expected to pick up to mid-teens through rest of year with new use cases like Moody's for Compliance.
Q: Tony Kaplan with Morgan Stanley asked about hyperscalers and issuance economics.
A: Hyperscalers similar to frequent investment-grade issuers, on frequent issuer pricing programs, large issuance numbers consistent with that.
Q: Andrew Steinerman with JP Morgan asked about MA portfolio reshaping.
A: Focus on high-growth areas, product suites with cross-selling opportunities, divestitures of learning and regulatory solutions, reallocating resources to higher growth areas, maintaining mature products in maintenance mode.
Q: Alex Cram with UBS asked about MA transactional revenue and future.
A: Transaction revenue down due to divestitures, continuing to see double-digit decline as services move to partners, organic recurring constant currency growth aligned with high single-digit guidance, gradual acceleration through year.
Q: Owen Lau with ClearStreet asked about organic revenue growth and ARR breach.
A: Guidance for organic constant revenue in high single-digit range, delta from transaction revenue decline (down 56% in Q1), underlying organic recurring revenue growth accelerates through year, second half stronger.
Q: Curtis Nagel with Bank of America asked about ratings issuance guidance and mix.
A: Issuance expected high single-digit growth in first half 2026 vs first half 2025, decline mid-single-digit in second half vs 2025; revenue growth in first half low double-digit, second half mid-single-digit, delta from bank loan repricings.
Q: Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners asked about AI concerns and regulators.
A: More sensitivity around AI making decisions for loans, insurance, credit ratings due to questions about models, bias, governance; straightforward conversations on accelerating processes, more sensitivity on decision-making.
Q: Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stiefel asked about incorporating Iran war impact into guidance.
A: Underlying funding drivers still there, risk-on/risk-off windows in March, demand waiting for risk-on windows, currently hold to current guidance as conditions and underlying drivers support, if heightened volatility persists into May, may impact guidance