Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Earnings
Mattel, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on October 27, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.03. MAT has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -13.6% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.04 | $0.01 | -74.8% | $1.1B | +2.2% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $-0.24 | $-0.20 | +16.7% | $862M | +6.7% |
| Oct 21, 2025 | $1.05 | $0.89 | -15.2% | $1.7B | -5.9% |
| Jul 23, 2025 | $0.16 | $0.19 | +18.8% | $1.0B | -45.9% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.20 | $0.35 | +75.0% | $1.6B | +1.2% |
| Oct 23, 2024 | $0.95 | $1.14 | +20.0% | $1.8B | +12.2% |
| Jul 23, 2024 | $0.17 | $0.19 | +11.8% | $1.1B | -1.6% |
| Feb 7, 2024 | $0.30 | $0.29 | -3.3% | $1.6B | -2.4% |
| Oct 25, 2023 | $0.87 | $1.08 | +24.1% | $1.9B | +4.6% |
| Jul 26, 2023 | $0.01 | $0.10 | +611.2% | $1.1B | +8.7% |
| Feb 8, 2023 | $0.27 | $0.18 | -33.3% | $1.4B | -16.6% |
| Jul 21, 2022 | $0.06 | $0.18 | +200.0% | $1.2B | +11.6% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 4, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- **Overall Strategy Execution**: Management is executing on its strategy to grow an IP-driven play and family entertainment business, with proof of progress across toys, digital, and film. Mattel holds the number one global position in its core categories (dolls, vehicles, infant/toddler/preschool) and gained share in vehicles and action figures per Circana. The company maintains a strong balance sheet while prioritizing organic growth investment and share repurchases. - **Strategic Investments**: The company is investing in organic growth initiatives including self-published mobile games, building sets, trading cards, direct-to-consumer channels, first-party data, and technology infrastructure. These investments are progressing as planned and are expected to deliver a high aggregate return on investment, with a net positive contribution to the bottom line starting in 2027 and beyond. - **Brand-Centric Operating Model Update**: Roberto Stanicki was promoted to President, Chief Marketing and Global Brand Officer, to formalize the brand-centric operating model. This model focuses on holistic IP management to capture full value across toys, entertainment, digital, and consumer products, and orienting demand generation around fan connections across multiple touchpoints. - **Digital Entertainment Progress**: The integration of fully acquired Mattel 163 is progressing well. The first self-published mobile game (based on *Masters of the Universe*) launched successfully on schedule, meeting all initial targets as a low-risk test of in-house publishing capabilities. The second self-published mobile game, *Uno Wild*, is in soft launch, has hit all production milestones to date, and is scheduled for a full global commercial launch in early 2027. Two new licensed PC/console titles based on Hot Wheels and Barbie are scheduled for launch later in 2026. - **Film and Franchise Progress**: *Masters of the Universe* launched theatrically, then moved to Amazon Prime Video, where it was the number one film globally on the platform and the most watched movie across all U.S. streaming platforms in its first week. The film has driven significant brand momentum, with gross billings more than tripling year-to-date. The next film, *Matchbox* (produced with Apple and Paramount Skydance), is scheduled for release on Apple TV+ on October 9, paired with a full fourth quarter product line. - **Operational Efficiency**: As part of the ongoing Optimizing for Profitable Growth program launched in 2024, the company achieved $15 million in cost savings in the quarter, bringing cumulative savings to $205 million. The full-year 2026 savings target remains $50 million, for a 2024-2026 program total of $225 million. - **Capital Allocation**: The company repurchased $100 million in shares during the quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $300 million, which is on track to hit the full-year 2026 target of $400 million. Total repurchases since resuming buybacks in 2023 total $1.5 billion, reducing shares outstanding by approximately 23%. The company maintains a 3x leverage ratio and remains committed to its investment-grade credit rating. Inventory levels: Owned inventory was $830 million at quarter end (slight decrease year-over-year), and retailer inventories declined low double digits year-over-year, leaving the company well positioned for the second half.
Guidance
- Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, with no upward or downward revisions to prior targets. - Full-year 2026 guidance: 3-6% constant currency net sales growth, adjusted gross margin of approximately 50%, adjusted operating income of $580-$630 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.27-$1.39. - Full-year 2026 segment growth expectations are maintained: vehicles and challenger categories will grow strongly, dolls will be relatively flat, and ITPS will decline. - Foreign exchange is expected to provide an approximate 1% benefit to full-year 2026 net sales based on current spot rates. - Gross margin is expected to improve sequentially in the second half of 2026, and the company does not expect a repeat of the heavy promotional activity that occurred at the end of 2025. Moderate inflationary pressures tied to Middle East events are expected to be mitigated to meet full-year guidance. - The planned $110 million in 2026 strategic growth investments are progressing as planned. The majority of the $40 million digital performance marketing budget originally planned for 2026 will be shifted to 2027 to align with the *Uno Wild* commercial launch; this shift does not impact 2026 full-year guidance. - 2027 is expected to be a strong growth year for Mattel, with mid-to-high single-digit top line growth and strong double-digit bottom line growth, driven by Barbie returning to growth, reduced drag from ITPS, continued vehicles growth, growth in challenger categories, full year contributions from recent acquisitions and partnerships, and the payoff from 2026 strategic investments.
Segment performance
1. **Vehicles**: 12% net sales growth in the quarter, driven by Hot Wheels. Hot Wheels saw strong demand across both kids and adult collectors, with exceptional performance in the collectibles business. Hot Wheels became Mattel's largest brand in 2024 and is approaching $2 billion in annual revenue. This segment is expected to deliver strong full-year 2026 growth. 2. **Challenger Categories (Games, Action Figures, Building Sets)**: Strong collective growth in the quarter. Games growth was led by Uno, including revenue contribution from the fully acquired Mattel 163. Action figures growth was driven by Toy Story 5, Masters of the Universe, strong WWE performance, and early DC partnership shipments; Masters of the Universe gross billings more than tripled year-to-date following its theatrical release. Building sets (led by Mattel Brick Shop Hot Wheels) performed well above expectations after its 2025 launch. This segment is expected to deliver strong full-year 2026 growth. 3. **Dolls**: Declined in the quarter, primarily due to lower Barbie streaming content revenue and lower Polly Pocket sales, partially offset by growth from K-pop Demon Hunters, Disney Princess, and Frozen. Barbie is expected to see improving trends in the second half of 2026 and return to growth in 2027. Full-year 2026 revenue for the segment is expected to be relatively flat. 4. **Infant, Toddler, and Preschool (ITPS)**: Declined in the quarter, primarily due to weaker overall Fisher-Price results, offset partially by strong high double-digit growth of Little People, driven by new partnerships including Nintendo and strong core demand. Thomas & Friends is scheduled for a full relaunch in the second half of 2026. This segment is expected to decline for full-year 2026. 5. **Digital Games**: Mattel 163 contributed $49 million in revenue and $14 million in adjusted operating income during the quarter. Regional performance: North America gross billings +12%, EMEA +7%, Asia-Pacific +4%, Latin America flat year-over-year.
Risks & headwinds
- Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain, and actual results may differ from projections due to significant risks and uncertainties, which are detailed in the company's SEC filings. - The timing and amount of potential tariff refunds remain uncertain as the regulatory framework continues to evolve; full-year 2026 guidance does not include any material benefit from potential refunds. - Moderate inflationary pressures related to ongoing events in the Middle East present a headwind, though management expects to mitigate these impacts to meet guidance. - The shift in U.S. retailer ordering patterns that disrupted results over the prior four quarters has stabilized, but the new mix is not expected to return to pre-disruption levels, creating ongoing structural uncertainty.
Analyst Q&A
Q: With full-year guidance unchanged, can you confirm your back-half gross margin target, and how are you managing input cost volatility from crude and Middle East events? /
A: Management confirms the full-year 50% gross margin guidance, and expects sequential gross margin improvement in the second half, with no repeat of 2025 year-end heavy promotions. All cost pressures are accounted for in the existing guidance range, and mitigation plans are in place to offset Middle East-related inflation. 2026 is an investment year, with all investment benefits expected to flow to the bottom line starting in 2027.
Q: With Barbie underperforming so far this year, what is your plan to return the brand to growth under the new brand-centric operating model? /
A: For the second half of 2026, management expects improving trends driven by three key initiatives: significantly expanded YouTube content (including a new *Barbie Nutcracker* animated holiday special), the new Barbie DreamHouse product launch paired with a full integrated brand campaign, and new segmented packaging to improve shelf appeal. For 2027, Barbie will return to growth driven by additional content, enhanced fashion products to reinforce its positioning as a fashion icon, and accelerated growth targeting adult collectors, following the same successful model used for Hot Wheels.
Q: The *Masters of the Universe* movie underperformed at the box office — how does this change your outlook for the franchise going forward? /
A: Management notes that while theatrical box office was lower than hoped, the movie has been extremely successful since moving to Amazon Prime Video, where it was the top-ranked film globally in its first week. Box office performance is only one metric; the core goal was to reignite fan excitement for the IP, introduce the franchise to a new generation, and drive overall brand sales. With gross billings more than tripling year-to-date, the movie met its core goals, and the franchise will remain a key long-term growth driver for Mattel.
Q: Why did you shift $40 million in digital user acquisition spending from 2026 to 2027, and does this shift improve your chance of hitting 2026 guidance? /
A: The shift is purely to align spending with the full commercial launch of *Uno Wild* in early 2027, which is standard for data-driven, process-managed digital investments to maximize return. The full-year 2026 guidance already included a range of scenarios, so the shift has no impact on 2026 guidance. The full P&L impact of the game was always expected to occur in 2027, so the spending shift aligns with the original long-term plan.