CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Earnings
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on August 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $5.64. CF has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +6.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | $2.63 | $2.89 | +9.9% | $2.0B | +8.0% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $2.50 | $2.99 | +19.6% | $1.9B | +4.9% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $2.16 | $2.19 | +1.4% | $1.7B | -0.5% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $2.50 | $2.37 | -5.2% | $1.9B | +4.8% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.54 | $1.89 | +22.7% | $1.5B | +1.5% |
| May 1, 2024 | $1.52 | $0.90 | -40.8% | $1.5B | +1.0% |
| Feb 14, 2024 | $1.57 | $1.58 | +0.6% | $1.6B | -4.4% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | $0.94 | $0.85 | -9.6% | $1.3B | -2.1% |
| Aug 2, 2023 | $2.25 | $2.71 | +20.4% | $1.8B | +30.7% |
| May 1, 2023 | $2.52 | $2.90 | +15.1% | $2.0B | +0.8% |
| Feb 15, 2023 | $4.30 | $4.28 | -0.5% | $2.6B | -7.8% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | $3.33 | $2.27 | -31.8% | $2.3B | -1.9% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · May 7, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
Highlights include safety with a trailing 12 - month recordable incident rate of 0.16 incidents per 200,000 hours worked due to the do - it - right culture. Operationally, ammonia capacity was nearly 100% available. The company discussed the tight global nitrogen supply - demand balance carried into 2026, with geopolitical disruptions like the conflict with Iran tightening the market. Capital expenditure projection for 2026 was approximately $1.3 billion, with CF Industries' portion around $950 million, including sustaining CapEx and work on the Bluepoint joint venture and infrastructure.
Guidance
Management expects global nitrogen markets to remain tight through 2027 and into the future. Construction on the Bluepoint ammonia plant is expected to commence this year once applicable permits are received, adding over 1.5 million tons of gross ammonia capacity in the United States when it begins operation late in 2029. The company intends to continue being opportunistic and disciplined with share repurchases as part of capital allocation.
Segment performance
For the first quarter of 2026, CF Industries generated adjusted EBITDA of $983 million. Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $615 million, or $3.98 per diluted share. EBITDA was approximately $1 billion. Trailing 12 - month net cash from operations was approximately $2.7 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.65 billion.
Risks & headwinds
Geopolitical disruptions such as the conflict with Iran and the Russia - Ukraine war disrupt nitrogen production. Lost production can't be recovered, damaged capacity takes time to restore, and global trade flows need time to recalibrate. There are also uncertainties related to the fragility of the global nitrogen supply chain including feedstock and logistical assets.
Analyst Q&A
Q: About CF premium and Bluepoint economics;
A: Discussed structural shift in low cost view and increased return profile for Bluepoint.
Q: On nitrogen market tightness;
A: Expected longer tail with damaged assets and transport issues.
Q: On US nitrogen prices vs offshore;
A: US is lowest priced market with inventory liquidation and future equalization.
Q: On buyback;
A: Intention to continue share repurchase with $1.7 billion remaining.
Q: On export restrictions and plant startup;
A: Talked about China exports, Egyptian duties, and plant startup timeframes.
Q: On summer fill and nitrogen processing;
A: Discussed communication with customers and outlook for Q3/Q4.
Q: On expansion plans;
A: Evaluating investments with higher return profiles.
Q: On gas costs and plant type;
A: Talked about CBAM and decarbonization efforts.
Q: On maintenance schedule;
A: Mentioned shifting maintenance to ensure domestic supply.