BP p.l.c. (BP) Earnings
BP p.l.c. is expected to report next earnings on August 4, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.46. BP has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +3.3% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.91 | $1.24 | +36.3% | $52.3B | +7.7% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.72 | $0.85 | +18.1% | $48.4B | +8.9% |
| Oct 31, 2023 | $1.37 | $1.15 | -16.1% | $53.3B | -3.6% |
| Aug 1, 2023 | $1.20 | $0.90 | -25.0% | $48.5B | -8.1% |
| May 2, 2023 | $1.33 | $1.66 | +24.8% | $56.2B | -1.2% |
| Feb 7, 2023 | $1.65 | $1.59 | -3.6% | $69.3B | +25.0% |
| Nov 1, 2022 | $1.94 | $2.59 | +33.5% | $55.0B | -7.1% |
| Aug 2, 2022 | $2.20 | $2.61 | +18.6% | $67.9B | +14.5% |
| May 3, 2022 | $1.41 | $1.92 | +36.2% | $49.3B | -11.8% |
| Feb 8, 2022 | $1.17 | $1.26 | +7.7% | $50.6B | -4.2% |
| Nov 2, 2021 | $0.96 | $0.99 | +3.1% | $36.2B | -8.4% |
| Feb 2, 2021 | $0.12 | $0.03 | -75.0% | $44.8B | -28.6% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q4 FY2025 · February 10, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- 2025 was a year of turnaround with good progress made. Operational performance strong across the group. Set new records in upstream plant reliability and refinery availability above 96%. Concluded strategic review of Castrol with agreement to sell 65% shareholding. **Safety**: Commitment to safety goals, but 4 colleagues lost lives in U.S. retail; permanently stopped roadside assistance next to active traffic lanes. **Primary targets**: Increased adjusted free cash flow by around 55% in 2025 on a price-adjusted basis; net debt reduced; delivered $2.8 billion of $4 billion to $5 billion structural cost reduction target; return on average capital employed around 14% in 2025. **Upstream projects**: Started 7 major projects, with 5 ahead of schedule; operational emissions and methane intensity improved; well and plant reliability high. **Exploration**: 12 discoveries in 2025, including in Gulf of America, Namibia, Brazil; strong exploration team and advanced technology behind success. **Bumerangue discovery**: In-situ analysis materially complete, initial estimate of around 8 billion barrels of liquids in place, with appraisal program planned to start around end of the year.
Guidance
- Adjusted free cash flow progressing ahead of target for greater than 20% compound annual growth through 2027. Return on average capital employed expects to reach over 16% in 2027 on a price-adjusted basis. Cost reduction target increased to $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion by 2027. Net debt target $14 billion to $18 billion by end of 2027. CapEx tightened to $13 billion to $13.5 billion in 2026. Dividend expected to increase by at least 4% per year.
Segment performance
**Upstream**: Reported upstream production was lower than 2024 due to portfolio changes, but underlying production was held broadly flat and exceeded annual guidance from 12 months ago. Started up 7 major projects; reserves replacement ratio was 90%, up from an average of around 50% in the previous 2 years. Operational emissions in 2025 were 37% less than in 2019. **Downstream**: Delivered a significant step-up in performance, with around $1.6 billion of structural cost reductions delivered to date. Customers delivered their highest underlying earnings since 2019. **Supply Trading and Shipping**: Remains a distinctive competitive advantage, delivering an average around 4% uplift to BP's returns over the past 6 years.
Risks & headwinds
- Safety risks: 4 fatalities in U.S. retail operations, need to continue improving process safety. - Market and commodity price risks: Potential impact on financial performance. - Divestment execution risks: Uncertainties in completing divestment program. - Integration risks: Risks associated with integrating acquisitions or divesting businesses.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs asked about finance cost reduction by 2027.
A: Katherine Thomson responded discussing transparency on financial obligations, net debt target, and need to strengthen balance sheet for future growth options.
Q: Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley asked about dividend growth and buyback suspension.
A: Katherine Thomson explained progressive dividend, suspension of buyback to strengthen balance sheet, and need to step through growth options with new CEO.
Q: Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America asked about decision to suspend buyback.
A: Katherine Thomson stated it's about strong financial discipline to strengthen balance sheet for future growth opportunities.
Q: Joshua Eliot Stone from UBS asked about reinstating buyback program.
A: Katherine Thomson said focus is on delivering net debt target, and will update when clear on balance sheet and growth options.
Q: Douglas Leggate from Wolfe asked about Bumerangue discovery recoverable number and working interest.
A: Gordon Birrell said it's early days, no rush to take partner, will update after appraisal program.
Q: Unknown Analyst asked about remaining divestments and sectors.
A: Carol Howle and Katherine Thomson said looking at whole portfolio for best returns, considering upstream, downstream, and low carbon business, with ongoing divestment processes.
Q: Mark Wilson from Jefferies asked about Bumerangue and exploration discoveries ranking.
A: Gordon Birrell said no rank order, discoveries will compete on economics, and no rush to take partner for Bumerangue.
Q: Biraj Borkhataria asked about net debt target and Castrol sell-down.
A: Katherine Thomson explained net debt target, ongoing process for Lightsource, and Castrol sell-down as good value decision for shareholders.
Q: Irene Himona from Bernstein asked about trading profitability and contribution of new businesses.
A: Carol Howle said Supply Trading and Shipping delivered 4% uplift, supported by optimizing BP's asset base and different opportunity sets.
Q: Alastair Syme from Citi asked about Mona project.
A: Carol Howle said it's a JV discussion, no update on capital allocation change.
Q: Lydia Rainforth from Barclays asked about technology and AI in operations.
A: Gordon Birrell discussed Wells Advisors, AI in kick detection, and use of AI across technical disciplines for improved operations.
Q: Lucas Herrmann from BNP asked about investment case for BP.
A: Carol Howle and Gordon Birrell discussed short-term, medium-term, and long-term growth opportunities, including strong base, medium-term BPX growth, and long-term Bumerangue and Paleogene developments.
Q: Kim Foster from HSBC asked about MENA region exploration and Gulf of Mexico activity.
A: Gordon Birrell provided updates on exploration wells in Libya, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, and Gulf of Mexico exploration program.
Q: Maurizio Carulli from Quilter Investment Management asked about Board changes.
A: Carol Howle, Katherine Thomson, and Gordon Birrell discussed Board composition benefits, fresh perspectives, and challenge in decision-making.
Q: Josh Stone from UBS asked about integrated model and BPX value.
A: Carol Howle and Gordon Birrell said BPX is a core part of BP with strong performance and no intention to sell, contributing to integrated value.
Q: Paul Cheng from Scotiabank asked about balancing simplicity and joint ventures.
A: Carol Howle and Katherine Thomson said balance is based on creating best value for BP, considering market opportunities and value conversation.
Q: Matthew Lofting from JPM asked about cost reduction program slowdown.
A: Katherine Thomson said focus on efficiency and competitiveness, with ongoing opportunities in AI and need to demonstrate delivery rather than upgrade targets.
Q: Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America asked about free cash flow target and Castrol impact.
A: Katherine Thomson said no need to update free cash flow target immediately, confident in delivering targets considering transaction impact.
Q: Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked about CapEx for future developments and cost control.
A: Katherine Thomson and Gordon Birrell said CapEx for Paleogene projects fully funded, and technology and AI will be used for cost control and efficient development