Research
ARCC Stock: Why Private Credit Default Risk Just Doubled
UBS Mish projects private credit defaults at 14-15% in AI-disruption tail scenario versus current 4.5%. ARCC has structural absorbers but limited cushion.
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
NASDAQ · USFinancial ServicesAsset Management
$18.98-0.99%
Price as of Jul 20, 2026
ARCC analysis
Ares Capital Corporation stock analysis
Published Drillr research and company-specific analysis. Existing articles keep their current URLs and citation behavior.
Research
ARCC Q1: Core EPS Slips Below Dividend on MTM Noise
Ares Capital's Q1 2026 core EPS of $0.47 fell below its $0.48 dividend, triggering tape concerns about dividend sustainability. However, net investment income remained robust at $0.55 per share, and the core EPS miss is entirely driven by a $0.57-per-share mark-to-market loss on the portfolio, not operational deterioration. Non-accrual loans ticked up modestly to 2.1% of amortized cost, but management characterized the portfolio as healthy. The dividend is not at risk; the tape has conflated mark-to-market volatility with operational stress.
Research
Which Private Credit Lenders Face the Steepest Penalty Risk as SEC Scrutiny Climbs 28%?
The SEC's non-compliance notices to Blackstone and PIMCO signal a regulatory shift in the $1.7T private credit market that the tape hasn't priced into BDC yield spreads. Prospect Capital's $8.9B asset base, 127 portfolio companies, and history of prior SEC actions create 3x the compliance surface area of Main Street Capital's cleaner book. Short PSEC vs long MAIN targets 400bps of yield spread compression over six months as compliance costs surface and potential penalties force a dividend cut.