AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Earnings
AerCap Holdings N.V. is expected to report next earnings on July 29, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $4.00. AER has beaten EPS estimates in 12 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +33.8% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | $3.59 | $5.39 | +50.1% | $2.2B | +8.2% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $3.31 | $3.95 | +19.3% | $2.2B | +8.6% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $3.10 | $4.97 | +60.3% | $1.9B | -4.4% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $2.68 | $2.83 | +5.6% | $1.9B | -6.3% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $2.75 | $3.68 | +33.8% | $2.1B | +3.2% |
| Feb 26, 2025 | $2.57 | $3.31 | +28.8% | $2.1B | +5.5% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $2.37 | $3.01 | +27.0% | $1.9B | -0.2% |
| May 1, 2024 | $2.41 | $3.29 | +36.5% | $1.9B | -0.6% |
| Feb 23, 2024 | $2.44 | $3.11 | +27.5% | $1.7B | -9.7% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | $2.44 | $2.81 | +15.2% | $1.9B | -0.6% |
| May 2, 2023 | $1.98 | $2.34 | +18.2% | $1.9B | +2.7% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | $1.98 | $2.66 | +34.3% | $1.8B | +2.2% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · April 29, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Performance: Record quarter of earnings with gap net income $818 million and adjusted net income $889 million. Robust demand for aviation assets, 87% lease extension rate, 286 transactions including 202 lease agreements and sale of 41 owned assets generating $1.5 billion sales revenue. 57% lease agreements signed in March despite geopolitical uncertainties. - Market environment: Strong demand for assets despite geopolitical events. Jet fuel prices persistently high could pressure airline industry, impact varies by region, business model, etc. Airline fleet planning spans multi-year horizons, not likely to change quickly due to market volatility. Potential growth opportunities in sale leaseback if fuel costs remain elevated beyond six months. - Positioning: Enter second quarter with below-target leverage ratio 2.1 times net debt to equity, $21 billion liquidity, over $3 billion excess capital. Well positioned to execute strategy, balance organic growth and share repurchases. Continued investment in new technology assets, 110 aircraft added to backlog in first quarter, executed complex 100 aircraft order with speed and attractive terms leveraging engine leasing leadership. - Confidence: Strong quarter reflecting durability of business model, quality of asset portfolio, and disciplined execution. Focus on prudent capital allocation, supporting customers, and investing in assets for long-term value creation.
Guidance
- Increased full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $14.50 per share, excluding additional gains on sale. Authorized new $1 billion share repurchase program. Raised full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to ~$14.50, EPS excluding gains on sale to ~$13 (top end of previous range) including $1.50 of gains from first quarter. Expect asset sales over $3 billion for 2026, weighted towards first half of year.
Segment performance
The company generated gap net income of $818 million, or $4.96 per share, and record adjusted net income of $889 million, or $5.39 per share. Basic lease rents were $1,682,000,000, slightly lower compared to last quarter, primarily due to aircraft sales and downtime on aircraft taken back from Spirit Airlines. Maintenance revenues were $190,000,000, with net maintenance contribution of $138 million this quarter. Net gain on sale of assets was $291 million for the quarter, with sales revenue of $1.5 billion from selling 41 owned assets. Interest expense was $467 million, leasing expenses were $110 million, income tax expense was $139 million with an effective tax rate of 15.5%. Liquidity was strong with total sources of liquidity approximately $21 billion, leverage ratio 2.1 to 1, operating cash flow $1.4 billion, secure debt to total assets ratio 9%, average cost of debt 4.1%, and share repurchases of 5.4 million shares for $745 million in the first quarter.
Risks & headwinds
- Geopolitical events could impact airline industry, with jet fuel prices persistently high for three to six months placing pressure on airline profitability. Impact on individual airlines varies by region, business model, balance sheet strength, and fuel hedging practices. Elevated fuel costs beyond six months could pressure airline profitability and lead to acceleration in retirement of older technology aircraft, which may present opportunities but also risks. Potential impact on lease rates and asset values if there is significant stress on airlines leading to reduced flying, particularly for older technology assets though AirCap is not heavily exposed to that market segment.
Analyst Q&A
Q: When would you expect geopolitical events to start impacting residual values of older planes?
A: It would take a significant period of time as airline fleet planning spans multi-years and AirCap has over 80% concentration of new technology aircraft. The average daily number of flights in April 2026 was only slightly lower than April 2025, showing de minimis impact so far.
Q: If an airline wants to protect balance sheet but bring on new airplanes, why wouldn't they go to AirCap?
A: There could be opportunity in sale leasebacks if higher fuel prices continue as OEMs are over-indexed to airlines' weaker credits and four airlines alone have more than the entire order book of the leasing industry
Q: Have any aircraft sales fallen through or settled at lower than hoped for economics since start of war?
A: No, we haven't seen anyone pull out of a sale or try to renegotiate one, with 57% of transactions closed in March when war had started and no sign of pull back
Q: How do you think about deployment of capital and opportunities out there?
A: AirCap finds crease of opportunities adding to shareholder value, has unique capabilities to solve business partners' issues, and expects to find other opportunities throughout the year, including potentially from pressure on airline balance sheets if it continues
Q: Can you talk about maintenance and return to service on Spirit aircraft?
A: No specific update, but first of those may come back into service later in the year with revenue expected then
Q: Compare acquisition costs/projected returns of transactions to direct OEM orders or acquiring via other means?
A: AirCap works hard with infrastructure and scale to generate opportunities, making money at comparable levels to alternatives, and has enabled continual generation of opportunities seen in P&L
Q: Updated thoughts on error derivatives for data center power generation?
A: Discussions continue with data center builders, two components (shed and interior engineering), spoken to OEMs and end users, demand today and near term significant but long-term demand less clear, sales cycle long, and may participate indirectly if market becomes significant but not yet seeing that
Q: Talk about lease rates or returns on CFM engine deal compared to original aircraft?
A: Lease rates on those engines are basically the same as on the original aircraft
Q: Trajectory or cadence of net spread margin?
A: Net spread was 8% this quarter and expected to be pretty consistent over next few quarters, with some expansion later in the year driven by assets coming back online and freighters delivering
Q: Thoughts on normalized ROE through the cycle once leverage normalized?
A: Long term, AirCap has generated ROEs about 950 basis points above the five-year treasury, expected to continue running at very high levels, and when leverage normalizes to 2.4 - 2.5 times, that should be positive for ROE as capital is deployed
Q: Talk about terms and how Airbus A320 NEO family orders opportunity came about?
A: AirCap is different due to being largest engine leasing business, knew engine shortage, helped key business partner Frontier reduce capacity, had infrastructure to move rapidly, freed up production line slots, and exercised options with Airbus to get the order with delivery starting in 2028
Q: Size incremental opportunities if seeing distressed airlines with elevated oil prices?
A: AirCap is at lowest leverage with large balance sheet and liquidity, OEM order books are heavily overweight airline industry, so if fuel prices stay elevated, there may be opportunities as OEM order book is over-indexed to weaker airline credits compared to lessors
Q: Lease rates trend in scenario of higher oil prices for longer?
A: If there is significant stress on airlines leading to reduced flying, there may be some impact on lease rates, but AirCap's business has proven stable returns through thick and thin, and has found accretive opportunities in long term during periods of difficulty
Q: Have any airline customers reached out seeking concessions due to fuel cost pressure?
A: As yet, haven't agreed to anything material with airlines, but if fuel prices continue over next six months, may have case-by-case requests. Airlines can pass on significant portion of fuel costs, reduce flying costs through other means to mitigate impact
Q: Changes in demand for new versus old technology aircraft and historical lag in impact on market values and lease rates?
A: Far too early to say impact on market value and lease rates, overall transactions still pushing forward with one transaction on pause due to management change not related to fuel crisis. If fuel prices last through end of year and beyond, may see reduction in bid for older technology assets though not heavily exposed to that market segment for AirCap
Q: Risk management in scenario of fuel higher for longer?
A: AirCap has a barbell approach to portfolio, investing in new technology assets and avoiding orders for older technology assets likely to be replaced, with 81% new technology assets and 19% older tech which is very old and mostly on long term leases, so not concerned about carrying values in regard to old or new tech