Alcoa Corporation (AA) Earnings
Alcoa Corporation is expected to report next earnings on July 15, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.18. AA has beaten EPS estimates in 9 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +31.7% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | $1.60 | $1.40 | -12.5% | $3.2B | -2.6% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | $0.95 | $1.26 | +32.6% | $3.4B | +4.0% |
| Oct 22, 2025 | $-0.14 | $-0.02 | +85.8% | $3.0B | -3.1% |
| Jul 16, 2025 | $0.32 | $0.39 | +21.0% | $3.0B | +3.8% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | $1.68 | $2.15 | +28.0% | $3.4B | -3.0% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $0.93 | $1.04 | +11.8% | $3.5B | +0.7% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | $0.25 | $0.57 | +128.6% | $2.9B | -2.1% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | $0.08 | $0.16 | +107.8% | $2.9B | +2.2% |
| Apr 17, 2024 | $-0.64 | $-0.81 | -26.4% | $2.6B | +2.1% |
| Jan 17, 2024 | $-0.99 | $-0.56 | +43.4% | $2.6B | -1.2% |
| Oct 18, 2023 | $-1.13 | $-1.14 | -0.9% | $2.6B | +0.9% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | $-0.59 | $-0.35 | +40.7% | $2.7B | -0.4% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q1 FY2026 · April 16, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
• Safety: There was progress with improved total injury rates. The focus was on fatality and critical risk management, with leaders being in the field to interact, coach, and reinforce standards. • Operationally: Stable performance was maintained across the system, higher metal prices were captured, supply continuity was ensured despite the Middle East disruption, the flexible cast house network unlocked value - add opportunities, and strong commercial capabilities were evident. • Strategically: Mine approvals in Western Australia were advanced, there were advanced discussions on monetizing the former Massena East smelter site for a data center project, progress was made on other sites, the San Ciprián smelter was successfully restarted, and notice was issued to redeem the 2028 notes
Guidance
• Interest expense is expected to decrease slightly to $135 million with the redemption of the 2028 notes. • The estimate for environmental and ARO payments has gone up to approximately $360 million from $325 million. • The Alumina segment's performance is forecasted to be unfavorable by around $15 million in 2026. • The Aluminum segment's performance is expected to be favorable by $55 million. • In the second quarter, benefits are expected from higher LME and Midwest premium pricing and increased shipments, but there will be higher Section 232 tariff costs. • Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by $20 million. • The 2026 operational tax expense is approximately $110 million to $120 million
Segment performance
Revenue decreased 7% sequentially to $3.2 billion. In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue dropped 33% because of lower shipments, reduced purchased and resold alumina, vessel constraints related to the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle, and lower realized prices for alumina and bauxite. For the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue rose 3% mainly due to a higher average realized third-party price and increased shipments from the San Ciprián smelter, though this was partially offset by seasonally lower shipping volumes from other sites and inventory repositioning timing impacts. First - quarter net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $425 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $595 million. The Alumina segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased by $52 million, while the Aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by $174 million. The cash balance ended March at $1.4 billion. The Alumina segment's performance is expected to be unfavorable by approximately $15 million in 2026, and the Aluminum segment's performance is expected to be favorable by $55 million
Risks & headwinds
• The Middle East conflict led to disruptions in shipping, energy costs, and demand, affecting alumina and aluminum markets. • There were disruptions in smelting and refining capacity in the Middle East region. • There was volatility in alumina and metal prices. • Uncertainty in environmental and regulatory requirements had an impact on operations
Analyst Q&A
Q: Comment on the impact of Middle East smelters reducing operating rate on alumina shipments, redirection, profitability, API pricing, and gallium project progress.
A: Shipments were being redirected with customers, full - year guidance was held consistent, redirection was mostly to Asia and China, there was no direct profitability impact from redirection, API pricing was still based on API, and progress was being made on the gallium project with major stakeholders
Q: Unpack the Alumina segment's second - quarter unfavorable impacts, cost exposure, mitigation, and aluminum production opportunities.
A: The $15 million unfavorable impact in the second quarter was due to price and energy. The company was exposed to carbon products, freight, and diesel costs, with procurement and logistics teams navigating challenges. There were opportunities to increase production in Portland, São Luís, San Ciprián, and Lista
Q: Follow - up on production increase in the guide, product mix, and San Ciprián operations profitability.
A: The production increase was embedded in the guide, there was less P1020 production and more value - add production for higher premiums. The smelter was doing well, but the refinery was still facing challenges
Q: Impact of the conflict on M&A vs shareholder returns and idled sites monetization.
A: The conflict did not change the capital allocation framework, with a balance between shareholder returns and growth opportunities. There was no assumption that the highest - value sites would be monetized first, and terms were being finalized for the Massena East site
Q: Fuel and energy input cost coverage, inventory in Western Australia, and value - add product benefit breakdown.
A: 99% of energy contracts were on long - term commitments. Diesel supply in Western Australia was certain through May. The $55 million favorable in the Aluminum segment was due to inventory repositioning, higher shipments, premiums, and the San Ciprián restart
Q: Aluminum shipments delta in the second quarter and Canada Section 232 update.
A: There was a delta in aluminum shipments due to seasonal factors, with a missed ~60 thousand metric tons on a revenue basis. There were no updates on Canada Section 232 progress
Q: Mine approvals timeline, Warrick restart, and downstream trade measures impact.
A: The mine approvals timeline was still end of 2026. The Warrick restart required ~$100 million of CapEx. Downstream trade measures were favorably received by customers
Q: Middle Eastern customers honoring contracts, Kwinana operation status.
A: Middle Eastern customers were honoring contracts, with assistance in loading and shipping. Kwinana sites were ramping up after Cyclone Narelle, with some sites still in specific operating conditions