RKLB and GSAT Face the SpaceX IPO Valuation Reset: $75 Billion Anchor Arrives

SpaceX is finalizing the terms of a $75 billion initial public offering at $135 per share, set to become the largest IPO on record, according to Reuters reporting on June 2-3, 2026. With pricing expected to land mid-week, the deal forces a public-market reset of every satellite-economy comparable — and the two listed companies that trade most directly against the SpaceX thesis are RKLB and GSAT.

What happened

SpaceX is offering 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising approximately $75 billion (the offering size, not the implied market cap). Reuters reported the term-setting timing on June 3; the Financial Times reported the same day that Chinese authorities are warning brokers against selling SpaceX allocations to mainland retail investors, citing the country's tightened outbound-investment regime. Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. priced a $650 million IPO the same week, signaling a parallel funding window for the broader space-and-defense complex.

The deal is roughly an order of magnitude larger than the prior record (Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing raised ~$30B). Lockup-period selling dynamics, index inclusion timing, and downstream ETF rebalancing are now the major near-term catalysts for the satellite sector.

Why it matters for the satellite economy

A SpaceX listing pulls the entire orbital-launch and satellite-communications cohort into a single public-market reference frame. Three durable effects:

1. Valuation anchor for launch peers. RKLB has been the only US-listed pure-play orbital launcher; SpaceX entry forces a like-for-like multiple compression test against a competitor with materially better unit economics.
2. Indirect read-through for satellite-broadband. GSAT, AST SpaceMobile, and Iridium each have to argue their case against a listed Starlink-bearing parent, which complicates the "scarce satellite-broadband exposure" narrative they have leaned on.
3. Capital-flight friction from Asia. The Chinese retail-investor ban, combined with the recently expanded individual outbound-investment rules, removes a marginal demand source and indirectly pressures cross-border brokers FUTU and TIGR — though those names sit outside this article's scope.

The headline secondary keyword here is satellite stock IPO comparison 2026; the question every analyst desk faces is whether RKLB and GSAT command their current multiples once a profitable, much larger SpaceX trades alongside.

Data points

The valuation gap is stark on both growth and profitability. drillr-terminal trailing fundamentals (FY 2025 fiscal year) and current snapshot multiples:

Two specific tape signals stand out. RKLB closed at $123.32 on June 2 after a single-day drop of -14.7% on June 1, leaving the stock 17% below its May 27 closing high of $150.23 — a measurable de-risk of the launch-peer trade already underway before SpaceX's pricing window. GSAT held $82.64 on June 2 with single-digit daily moves, consistent with a name whose narrative is increasingly carry-and-spectrum rather than launch-cadence beta.

Stratification matters: RKLB trades on the future ramp of Neutron and constellation services (the consensus +47.7% growth line), while GSAT has already moved into positive free cash flow ($77M FY 2025) on the back of its Apple satellite-services contract — a structurally different cash-flow profile that should arguably re-rate higher on a peer comparison, not lower.

Analysis: what re-prices when SpaceX trades

Three scenarios are worth pricing in over the next 30-60 days:

Scenario A — SpaceX trades flat-to-down on debut (the Reuters retail-flow caution case). RKLB's 71x forward P/S survives only if Neutron successfully reaches first revenue. Without that, the consensus growth line gets re-rated lower, and a 50% multiple compression to a still-rich 35x forward P/S would imply a fair value near $62 — almost exactly half today's price. GSAT in this case re-rates up on FCF strength, because the launch-cadence beta is removed from its multiple.

Scenario B — SpaceX prints a clean debut and trades higher. Both RKLB and GSAT benefit from sector inclusion in space-and-defense ETFs (UFO, ARKX), and from the marginal index demand created by a profitable category leader. Even in this case, RKLB's negative EBITDA leaves it the more vulnerable name on any sector-wide drawdown.

Scenario C — Hormuz / oil shock spikes the energy-conflict risk premium. Satellite communications becomes a strategic-asset trade. GSAT's defense-adjacent positioning is the most leveraged here; RKLB sits more in the asset-build side of the curve and benefits less.

The forward-P/S spread (RKLB 71x vs GSAT 35x) is the single most important variable to monitor over the IPO window. Historic launch-cadence stories have collapsed P/S multiples by 60-70% in 90 days when the comparable trade arrives — and SpaceX is the comparable trade the satellite sector has been waiting for for a decade.

What to watch

• June 4-5: SpaceX final pricing and first-day trading on NYSE. Watch lockup-period disclosure and free-float share count.
• June 13: First weekly close after SpaceX trading begins. Watch RKLB / GSAT relative performance vs SpaceX intraday.
• End of Q2 (June 30): RKLB Neutron milestone updates. A delay re-rates the consensus +47.7% growth line.
• July earnings: GSAT Q2 print (mid-August) — the first cash-flow window post-SpaceX. Free-cash-flow continuation is the key defense against P/S compression.
• Asia retail flows: FUTU and TIGR commentary on cross-border IPO subscription activity; if Hong Kong satellite-spinoff IPOs accelerate (Kazakh sovereign-wealth-fund deal pending), capital that would have chased SpaceX may rotate into adjacent listings.

The satellite stock IPO comparison reframes for the entire sector the day SpaceX opens. RKLB and GSAT both carry triple-digit one-year returns going into the print, and both will be tested by the new reference point.

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