[CCI] Crown Castle: Q3 2026 earnings preview on tower leasing after DISH

Crown Castle is the only publicly traded pure-play U.S. tower real estate investment trust, earning its money by leasing space on its towers to wireless carriers under long-term contracts[1]. Its Q3 2026 earnings call is scheduled for 2026-10-21[2], covering the third quarter 2026, the three months ended September 30, 2026. In the latest disclosed period, the second quarter of 2026, site rental revenues fell 4% year over year to $967 million, adjusted EBITDA fell 4% to $675 million, and AFFO (adjusted funds from operations) was $488 million, or $1.13 per share, up 11% per share[3]; organic contribution to site rental billings, excluding the Sprint cancellations and the DISH terminations, was $38 million, or 3.9% of prior-year billings[4]. The company does not give quarterly guidance; on July 22 it set full-year site rental revenue guidance at $3.833 billion to $3.878 billion, held adjusted EBITDA guidance at $2.665 billion to $2.715 billion, and guided AFFO per share to $4.53 to $4.65[5]. According to estimates from 10 analysts compiled by Drillr, consensus third-quarter net revenue is $1.011 billion, in a range of $1.001 billion to $1.021 billion[6], about 6% below the $1.072 billion reported for the third quarter of 2025[7], which is consistent with DISH revenue no longer being recognized.

Three things matter most in this report. The first is whether carrier equipment additions start billing faster in the second half: core leasing added only $15 million in each of the first two quarters[4][8], while full-year guidance calls for $60 million to $70 million[9], so the third quarter is the first real test of management's claim that 2026 is the low point for organic growth. The second is the accounting fallout from DISH: the year-over-year drag widens from $49 million a quarter to roughly $61 million, and the roughly $165 million net DISH position on the balance sheet still carries no reserve[10], so the report will show whether the company has changed its view on recovery. The third is whether the first full quarter after the fiber sale delivers on AFFO per share: the company repaid more than $7.2 billion of debt and bought back $1 billion of stock[11], full-year guidance implies roughly $1.19 to $1.25 of AFFO per share in each second-half quarter, and the second quarter's $1.13 included $14 million of interest income that will not recur[12].

Company Background and Business Structure

Crown Castle finished its transformation from a tower-plus-fiber company into a pure tower company in 2026. The company is headquartered in Houston and is taxed as a real estate investment trust[13]; on March 13, 2025, it agreed to sell its fiber solutions business to Zayo and its small cell business to EQT for $8.5 billion in aggregate[14]. The deal closed on May 1, 2026, and the company received $8.4 billion of net cash after $124 million of preliminary purchase price adjustments[15]; fiber and small cells are now reported as discontinued operations, leaving continuing operations with a single U.S. tower reporting segment[13].

Tower leasing is a business of long contracts and low incremental cost. Carriers add antennas or modify existing equipment on towers to extend coverage, add capacity or deploy new spectrum, and the company signs master-agreement leases with initial terms generally of five to 15 years, contractual escalators and renewal options held by the tenant[16]; at the end of 2025 each tower had about 2.4 tenants on average, and about 75% of site operating costs were ground rent, which generally rises with inflation[17]. About 40% of the company's adjusted site rental gross margin comes from towers on land it owns, and 56% and 71% of its towers sit in the 50 and 100 largest U.S. basic trading areas, respectively[13]. A smaller services and other line consists mainly of site development work such as site selection, design and permitting, billed at fixed project fees outside the long-term contracts[18]. In addition, 22% of the company's towers are leased or subleased from AT&T, and Crown Castle can buy them at the end of those terms for aggregate option payments of about $4.2 billion, due between 2032 and 2048[19].

Customer concentration is high, and the exits of two customers over the past two years have already cut revenue directly. In 2025 about 90% of site rental revenues came from T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon, and non-renewals tied to the T-Mobile and Sprint network consolidation reduced site rental revenues by about $200 million that year; the weighted-average remaining contract term was about six years, representing about $23.7 billion of expected future cash inflows excluding DISH[16]. In January 2026 the company sent DISH a notice of default and termination for failing to make required payments, asserting that DISH still owes more than $3.5 billion of remaining contract payments[20]; DISH filed for bankruptcy protection on June 30, 2026[10]. In February the company launched a restructuring that cut its continuing-operations workforce by about 20%[21]; on September 14 it announced that CFO Sunit Patel will retire on March 31, 2027, to be succeeded by Chief Commercial Officer Kris Hinson, and that COO Cathy Piche would step down on September 23[22].

Financial History and Current Position

In full-year 2025, site rental revenues from continuing operations fell under the weight of the Sprint churn. Site rental revenues dropped from about $4.3 billion in 2024 to about $4.0 billion in 2025, a decline of $219 million, mainly because the T-Mobile and Sprint network consolidation produced $204 million of non-renewals and prepaid rent amortization fell by $61 million[23]. Net revenues in the four quarters of 2025 were $1.061 billion, $1.060 billion, $1.072 billion and $1.072 billion; adjusted EBITDA was $722 million, $705 million, $718 million and $718 million; and AFFO per share was $1.10, $1.02, $1.12 and $1.12[7]. On the cost side, 2025 SG&A (selling, general and administrative expenses) was $383 million, down 12%, and adjusted services and other gross margin was $107 million[23].

In the first half of 2026, the DISH exit stepped EBITDA down, but interest savings from the fiber sale lifted AFFO per share in the second quarter. First-quarter net revenues were $1.010 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $675 million[7]; AFFO was $446 million, or $1.02 per share, down 7%, and the quarterly dividend of $1.0625 per share was 32% lower than a year earlier[24]. Second-quarter site rental revenues were $967 million, adjusted EBITDA stayed at $675 million, and AFFO was $488 million, or $1.13 per share; GAAP net income was only $94 million, or $0.22 per share, against $291 million a year earlier[3]. First-half adjusted services and other gross margin was $47 million, $3 million below the prior-year period, and SG&A was $187 million, only $5 million lower[25].

The balance sheet shrank sharply after the sale, but leverage still sits in the middle of the company's target range. The company used sale proceeds to repay more than $7.2 billion of debt, including $5 billion of floating-rate debt, and repurchased about 11 million shares at an average price of $88.66 for $1 billion, which cut annual dividend obligations by $47 million[1]. As of June 30, 2026, the face value of debt was $18.353 billion, cash was $1.254 billion and net debt was $17.099 billion, or 6.3 times annualized second-quarter adjusted EBITDA[26]; all of the debt carried fixed rates, the weighted-average maturity was about seven years, and about $4.5 billion was available under the revolving credit facility[11]. Operating cash flow for the first half was $1.040 billion, compared with $1.473 billion a year earlier[27]; capital expenditures over the same period were $116 million, including $68 million of land purchases, double the $34 million a year earlier, and only $14 million of sustaining capital expenditures[28]. The company paid dividends of about $473 million in the first quarter and about $460 million in the second[24][11].

Operating Model

Revenue rests on site rental billings, which the company breaks into several observable drivers through its year-over-year billings bridge. Of second-quarter net revenues, site rental revenues were $967 million, about 96%, and the remaining $41 million came from services and other[3][7]. Starting from $961 million of prior-year billings, the company added $15 million of core leasing (new tenants and equipment amendments), $25 million of escalators and $5 million of other billings, and subtracted $7 million of ordinary non-renewals, for $38 million of organic contribution excluding Sprint and DISH; subtracting a further $49 million of DISH terminations and $5 million of Sprint cancellations left total organic contribution at minus $16 million, or minus 1.8%[4]. Reported revenue then layers straight-line adjustments and prepaid rent amortization on top of billings, which were minus $3 million and $21 million in the second quarter[4]. Because new equipment bills only after a lag from signing, management's statement at the end of the second quarter that more than 90% of 2026 organic growth was already contracted[29] does not mean that the growth has already reached billings.

On the profit side, new billings carry almost no incremental cost, while lost billings come almost entirely out of profit. Second-quarter adjusted site rental gross margin was $723 million and adjusted services and other gross margin was $23 million[30]; after SG&A excluding stock-based compensation, adjusted EBITDA was $675 million, about 67% of net revenues[3]. Cost leverage in 2026 comes from two sources: the first-quarter restructuring delivered $65 million of annualized cost reductions[31], and ground lease buyouts directly reduce site operating costs; in July the company raised its full-year cost savings by $15 million, $10 million from site rental costs and $5 million from SG&A, and reaffirmed its goal of expanding EBITDA margins by 200 basis points over the next year[32]. Cost cuts land in current-period expenses while services revenue moves with carrier project timing, so the two offset each other within the same quarter.

On the cash side, AFFO is essentially adjusted EBITDA minus cash interest and a small amount of sustaining capital spending, so changes in interest pass almost immediately into AFFO per share. Second-quarter AFFO growth came mainly from a $35 million year-over-year decline in interest expense and interest income on sale proceeds, of which $14 million was one-time income that the company does not expect to recur in the second half[12]. Because the sale closed on May 1, the second quarter captured only two months of post-repayment interest savings, making the third quarter the first full quarter[15]. Management said its order of cash uses is unchanged: fund the dividend first, then high-return capital spending such as ground lease buyouts, then keep net debt to EBITDA within 6.0 to 6.5 times, and use any remaining cash for buybacks[33]; full-year discretionary capital spending guidance is $200 million at the midpoint, or $160 million net of prepaid rent[32].

Industry and Competitive Position

The U.S. tower industry is dominated by a few independent tower companies, and Crown Castle's main rivals are American Tower and SBA Communications. In its 10-K the company lists location, existing tower footprint, deployment speed, quality of service, expertise, reputation, capacity and price as the most important competitive factors, and names small cell operators, tenants that own their own towers and new alternative deployment methods as further competition[34]. Its advantage is a tower base concentrated in dense trading areas; its disadvantage is a land ownership share about 11 percentage points below peers, which management is treating as a priority to close in order to lift margins[35], and on the first-quarter call it set a goal of raising land ownership to 40%[36]. The available material does not include peer revenue or profit figures, so the comparison here stops at land ownership and competitive factors.

Industry demand depends on carrier spectrum deployment and network densification, while substitute technologies are the long-run unknown. On the second-quarter call management cited FCC plans to make at least 800MHz of additional commercial spectrum available by 2030, with 165MHz to be auctioned in 2026 and 2027, and projected that U.S. monthly data use per smartphone will rise from 25GB to 52GB within five years[37]; management also said AT&T's 600MHz deployment will support midterm growth[38]. The 10-K warns that network sharing, signal combining, network virtualization and low-earth-orbit satellites could reduce demand for towers[39]; management's view is that satellites lack reliable indoor coverage, serve mainly rural areas and complement rather than replace terrestrial towers[37][36]. The churn after the T-Mobile and Sprint merger and the DISH exit are both direct consequences of this concentrated customer structure.

Core Debates

New leasing added only $15 million of billings in each of the first two quarters, yet full-year guidance calls for $60 million to $70 million. Will carrier equipment additions accelerate in the second half?

This question decides whether 2026 really is the low point for organic growth. Site rental makes up about 96% of revenue and new tenants add almost no incremental cost, so each additional $1 million of core leasing adds roughly the same amount to adjusted EBITDA and AFFO[3][13]. Management calls 2026 the low point for organic growth, pointing to more than 90% of full-year organic growth already contracted at the end of the second quarter, up from 80% at the start of the year, along with AT&T's 600MHz deployment and spectrum auctions from 2027[29][38].

The current numbers paint a less certain picture. Core leasing was $15 million in the second quarter and the same in the first, compared with $20 million in the third quarter of 2025[4][8]; second-quarter organic contribution excluding Sprint and DISH was $38 million, or 3.9% of prior-year billings including DISH and 4.2% excluding DISH, above $30 million in the first quarter, but $5 million of it came from other billings[4][8]. The company raised full-year organic contribution guidance by $5 million to $120 million to $150 million, again from other billings, while holding core leasing guidance at $60 million to $70 million[9][40]. Subtracting first-half actuals from full-year guidance, the second half needs $30 million to $40 million of core leasing, or $15 million to $20 million a quarter.

A different reading is equally plausible: first-half organic growth came mainly from escalators and one-off other billings, while core leasing itself stalled at $15 million a quarter, below the third quarter of 2025; management also acknowledged that leadership changes and layoffs at carriers have slowed network project decisions, which led it to cut services margin guidance[41], and the same delays could push back billing for new equipment. Management, for its part, said lower services activity has no direct link to leasing demand[38]. In the third quarter, watch whether core leasing reaches at least $17.5 million, whether organic contribution excluding Sprint and DISH holds at $34 million or more without leaning on other billings, whether ordinary non-renewals stay near $7 million a quarter, and whether full-year guidance holds. If core leasing comes in below $15 million, the second-half acceleration has not happened and the low end of full-year guidance comes under pressure; if organic contribution rests mainly on other billings, underlying demand has not improved.

After DISH's exit, the year-over-year drag widens from $49 million a quarter to roughly $61 million in the third quarter. Can the company keep its roughly $165 million net DISH position on the books without a reserve?

DISH affects Crown Castle on two layers, recurring billings and one-time assets; the first is already in guidance and the second is unresolved. DISH contributed $222 million of billings in 2025, and full-year guidance assumes a full loss of $220 million[9]; but DISH billings in the four quarters of 2025 were about $49 million, $49 million, $61 million and $62 million, so the second-half drag will exceed the first-half drag and make the decline in site rental revenues look wider[8][4]. The $61 million third-quarter figure is derived from $48 million of prior-year DISH billings plus $13 million of DISH organic contribution, and the company's third-quarter report will give the official number[8]. The DISH termination drag was minus $49 million in both the first and second quarters, and total organic contribution was minus $24 million and minus $16 million, respectively[8][4].

The balance-sheet layer depends on the bankruptcy process. At the end of 2025, DISH-related items consisted of about $50 million of receivables and about $150 million of deferred site rental receivables, offset by about $34 million of deferred revenues and other liabilities, for a net position of about $165 million that the company judged recoverable and did not reserve[20]. As of June 30, 2026, the company held the same view and was pursuing recovery through the bankruptcy and through a $2.4 billion trust the FCC required EchoStar to fund; the trust was established on July 28 alongside the completion of the spectrum transaction[10]. On the call, management disclosed that DISH is asserting it can apply an 85% haircut to the present value of its remaining lease obligations, while Crown Castle argues that the leases were terminated for nonpayment before the bankruptcy and the claims accelerated, so the 15% cap does not apply; the bankruptcy court will decide, and the size and timing of any recovery from the escrow are uncertain[41]. Crown Castle has been appointed to the unsecured creditor committee[42], and management said at the time that escrow funding depended on the closing of the AT&T-EchoStar spectrum transaction[43].

This debate flows through to GAAP net income and one-time cash, not to adjusted EBITDA. If recovery looks unlikely, a reserve of up to about $165 million would reduce GAAP net income; if the bankruptcy claim or the escrow pays out, the company would book a one-time cash recovery. The alternative reading is that the bankruptcy process could back DISH's position that a government-mandated spectrum sale made performance impossible, or apply the cap, while the $2.4 billion escrow has to be shared among several tower companies and vendors, so the company's view that the $165 million is recoverable could change in the third quarter or later. In the third quarter, watch whether the DISH drag is about minus $61 million, whether the full-year minus $220 million assumption is unchanged, whether the net position is reserved, whether the escrow has paid out, and whether Sprint non-renewals stay near $5 million a quarter[4]; a reserve would signal a weaker recovery view, and if the court limits the claim to 15% of remaining lease payments, the recoverable portion of the $3.5 billion claim would shrink sharply.

Crown Castle has cut about 20% of its workforce and is buying more land under its towers, but its services business is shrinking. In July it held full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance at $2.665 billion to $2.715 billion. Can the cost cuts outpace the services decline?

Adjusted EBITDA is the denominator for both AFFO and leverage, so holding guidance in the second half depends on costs. The DISH and Sprint losses have already pushed adjusted EBITDA down from $718 million in the third quarter of 2025 to $675 million in the second quarter of 2026[7][3]; the first half totaled $1.350 billion, so full-year guidance of $2.665 billion to $2.715 billion requires $1.315 billion to $1.365 billion in the second half[5]. In July the company raised expected cost savings by $15 million while cutting expected services contribution by about $20 million because of lower services activity[40], a decline management attributed to the third quarter[32].

The cost cuts do not yet show clearly in the financial statements. Second-quarter site rental costs were $249 million, against $251 million a year earlier and $250 million in the third quarter of 2025[7]; first-half SG&A was $187 million, only $5 million below the prior-year period[25], and second-quarter SG&A of $97 million included a one-time $7 million of stock-based compensation[12]. Second-quarter adjusted services gross margin was $23 million, against $26 million a year earlier[30] and $31 million in the third quarter of 2025[7]. Land purchases in the first half were $68 million, double the prior-year level[28], but lower ground rent from land purchases takes time to show up, and about $14 million of restructuring charges were recorded in the first half, with more to come over the rest of 2026[44].

The alternative reading is that flat first-half EBITDA owed more to a steady DISH drag and contractual escalators than to cost cuts, which have yet to appear; if third-quarter services margin falls further than expected while ground rent keeps rising with inflation, EBITDA could land in the lower half of guidance. In the third quarter, watch whether adjusted EBITDA stays at or above $675 million, whether site rental costs fall below $245 million year over year, whether SG&A drops below $90 million, and whether services gross margin holds at $23 million. Services margin below $11.5 million would mean carrier project delays exceeded the company's assumptions; site rental costs above $252 million would mean land purchases have not yet offset rising ground rent.

After selling its fiber business, Crown Castle repaid $7.2 billion of debt and bought back $1 billion of stock. With the third quarter the first full quarter after those moves, can interest savings and a lower share count lift AFFO per share to the roughly $1.19 to $1.25 a quarter implied by full-year guidance?

AFFO per share funds a real estate investment trust's dividend, so this question bears directly on the dividend's margin of safety. The quarterly dividend of $1.0625 per share is already 32% below the prior-year level[24], and management calls it the sacrosanct first use of cash[33]; full-year AFFO per share guidance of $4.53 to $4.65[5], less first-half results of $1.02 and $1.13, requires $2.38 to $2.50 per share in the second half, or about $1.19 to $1.25 a quarter, a clear step up from the first-half quarterly average that relies mainly on lower interest and a smaller share count.

Both interest and share count are moving in the right direction, but the second-quarter figure contains a one-time element. Second-quarter AFFO per share was $1.13, up 11%, against $1.02 in the first quarter and $1.12 in the third quarter of 2025[3][7]; the increase came mainly from a $35 million year-over-year drop in interest expense and interest income on sale proceeds, of which $14 million, about $0.03 per share, will not recur in the second half[12]. Interest expense fell from $242 million in the first quarter to $208 million in the second[7][5], and in July the company repaid its 1.050% notes at maturity[45]; weighted diluted shares fell from 437 million in the first quarter to 434 million in the second[7][11], with the repurchase of about 11 million shares completed during the second quarter[46], and leverage stood at 6.3 times[26].

The alternative reading is that, excluding the one-time interest income, second-quarter AFFO per share was about $1.10, and if second-half EBITDA lands at the low end of guidance and interest savings fall short of the implied midpoint, AFFO per share could reach only the bottom of full-year guidance. In the third quarter, watch whether AFFO per share is at least $1.22, whether interest expense falls below $180 million, whether weighted diluted shares drop below about 428 million, and whether leverage stays within 6.0 to 6.5 times. AFFO per share below $1.19 would put the low end of full-year guidance under pressure; leverage above 6.5 times would, under the company's capital allocation order, pause buybacks[33].

Risks and Falsifiers

Customer concentration is the most fundamental risk. Three carriers generate about 90% of site rental revenues, and carrier consolidation, network sharing or direct-to-device satellite technology could all reduce demand for towers[16][39]; the exposure is about $23.7 billion of future contracted cash flow over a weighted remaining term of about six years, plus pricing at renewal. If third-quarter core leasing is at least $17.5 million, ordinary non-renewals are no more than $7 million and no new large customer exits, the risk has not materialized in the near term.

The management transition could affect execution on restructuring, land purchases and the DISH recovery. The CFO will retire in March 2027 and the COO stepped down in September while the company searches for a successor[22], and restructuring charges are still to be recorded over the rest of 2026[44]; the exposure is the contribution of $65 million of annualized cost savings to adjusted EBITDA and the pace of capital deployment. If the third-quarter report keeps full-year guidance, the restructuring stays on plan and a COO succession is announced, the concern eases.

Slower carrier decisions could delay billing on equipment that is already contracted. Management acknowledged that leadership changes, strategic shifts and layoffs at carriers have slowed project decisions[41], while second-half core leasing implied by guidance is $30 million to $40 million[9], and each $1 million shortfall in core leasing costs about $1 million of adjusted EBITDA. If third-quarter core leasing is at least $17.5 million and the company holds full-year guidance, this risk is falsified.

The DISH bankruptcy outcome could force a reserve. If the bankruptcy court backs DISH's haircut or 15% cap argument and the escrow allocation falls short, the company may reserve against the roughly $165 million net position[10][41], which would reduce GAAP net income but not adjusted EBITDA or recurring billings. If the company confirms a distribution from the escrow or the bankruptcy and the net position remains unreserved, the risk is resolved.

A services decline and delayed cost savings could hit in the same quarter. Second-half services gross margin implied by guidance is $23 million to $53 million[5][25], and each $1 million shortfall reduces EBITDA and AFFO by about $1 million; if restructuring savings also arrive late, adjusted EBITDA would fall into the lower half of guidance[40][32]. If third-quarter services gross margin is at least $23 million and adjusted EBITDA is at least $675 million, this view is falsified.

The loss of one-time interest income could leave second-half AFFO per share below the level implied by guidance. Second-half AFFO implied by guidance is $1.016 billion to $1.066 billion, and the $14 million of one-time interest income equals about $0.03 per share[12][5][11]; if EBITDA also lands at the low end of guidance, the gap widens. If third-quarter AFFO per share is at least $1.22 and full-year guidance is unchanged, the concern does not hold.

What to Watch Next

• Carrier leasing ramp: core leasing was $15 million in the second quarter and $20 million in the third quarter of 2025; at least $17.5 million would support acceleration, while less than $15 million would mean it has not happened. Organic contribution excluding Sprint and DISH was $38 million (3.9%), including $5 million of other billings; it should hold at $34 million or more without leaning on other billings.
• DISH exit and claim: the termination drag was minus $49 million in each of the first two quarters; the third quarter should show about minus $61 million with the full-year minus $220 million assumption unchanged. The roughly $165 million net position was unreserved at June 30; a reserve would signal a weaker recovery view, and any escrow payout would be a one-time cash gain.
• Cost cuts versus services: adjusted EBITDA was $675 million and should not fall below that level; site rental costs were $249 million and should drop below $245 million, while services gross margin was $23 million. Costs above $252 million or services margin below $11.5 million would weaken the cost story.
• AFFO per share after the sale: second-quarter AFFO per share was $1.13, including about $0.03 of one-time interest income; at least $1.22 would support guidance, while less than $1.19 would pressure the low end. Interest expense was $208 million, weighted diluted shares were 434 million and leverage was 6.3 times; watch for interest below $180 million and shares below 428 million, and note that leverage above 6.5 times would pause buybacks.

Conclusion

Crown Castle is now an almost pure U.S. tower leasing business whose results depend on equipment additions by three carriers, contractual escalators and known churn. In the second quarter of 2026 site rental revenues were $967 million, adjusted EBITDA was $675 million and AFFO per share was $1.13[3], while net debt after the fiber sale was $17.099 billion and leverage was 6.3 times[26]. The open question is whether, as the DISH drag widens in the third quarter, core leasing can accelerate from $15 million a quarter, cost cuts can offset the services decline, and interest savings and a lower share count can lift AFFO per share to the level implied by full-year guidance.

Two independent commentaries published after the second-quarter report are worth weighing; both lean toward fundamental resilience, but on different grounds, and neither offers direct third-quarter evidence. Barclays analyst Brendan Lynch, as reported by GuruFocus, argued that the market overstates the satellite threat to Crown Castle and that Starlink's interest in a terrestrial network is a net positive for towers; he did not read the cut to services margin guidance as a sign of slowing leasing, citing a historically weak correlation between the two, and expects core leasing growth to rise from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2027[47]. That view maps onto the first and third debates and matches management's statement that services and leasing are not directly linked, but the acceleration it describes falls in 2027, so whether third-quarter core leasing reaches $17.5 million still needs its own test. Chris Lange of 24/7 Wall St. argued that the reduced $4.25 annual dividend per share is well covered by the roughly $4.59 AFFO guidance midpoint and that management puts the dividend first among uses of cash, while warning that about 93% of site rental revenues come from three carriers and that AT&T renewals in 2028 are a risk to watch[48]. That judgment maps onto the fourth debate and depends on full-year AFFO guidance being met; its 93% concentration figure is also higher than the roughly 90% for 2025 disclosed in the company's 10-K[16].

From here, the view that 2026 is the low point and that per-share cash flow is improving after the sale would strengthen materially if third-quarter core leasing reaches at least $17.5 million, the DISH drag lands near minus $61 million with the net position still unreserved, adjusted EBITDA is at least $675 million, AFFO per share is at least $1.22 and full-year guidance is unchanged. Conversely, the current understanding would weaken if core leasing stays below $15 million, services gross margin drops below $11.5 million, the company reserves against the DISH net position, or AFFO per share comes in below $1.19.

Sources

[1] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · capital deployment and leverage · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[2] Drillr earnings calendar (updated 2026-10-13) · CCI 2026-10-21 call · 2026-10-13 · Drillr earnings calendar

[3] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · Q2 2026 highlights · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[4] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · Q2 2026 components of site rental revenue change · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[5] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · full year 2026 outlook · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[6] Drillr analyst_financial_estimates (updated 2026-10-13) · CCI quarter ending 2026-09-30 · 2026-10-13 · Drillr analyst_financial_estimates · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[7] CCI 8-K filed 2026-04-22 · 2025-2026 quarterly financial highlights · 2026-04-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[8] CCI 8-K filed 2026-04-22 · 2025 quarterly components of site rental revenue change · 2026-04-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[9] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · full year 2026 site rental revenue outlook components · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[10] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · DISH bankruptcy and net balance sheet position · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[11] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · AFFO, capex, dividend and balance sheet commentary · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[12] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · segment performance and one-time items · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[13] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · business overview · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[14] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · Strategic Fiber Transaction · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[15] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · Fiber Business sale completion · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[16] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · tenant contracts, concentration and debt profile · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[17] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · tenancy and site cost structure · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[18] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · site development services · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[19] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · AT&T tower purchase option · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[20] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · DISH default and termination · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[21] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · 2026 Restructuring Plan · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[22] CCI 8-K filed 2026-09-14 · CFO retirement and COO transition · 2026-09-14 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000081/

[23] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · FY2025 results of operations · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[24] CCI 8-K filed 2026-04-22 · Q1 2026 results · 2026-04-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[25] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · six-month revenue, services and SG&A drivers · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[26] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · net debt and leverage · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[27] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · six-month cash flows · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[28] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · capital expenditures · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[29] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · contracted growth · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[30] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · Q2 2026 results of operations · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[31] CCI Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-22 · management highlights · 2026-04-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[32] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · guidance changes and margin target · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[33] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Q&A on capital allocation · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[34] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · competition · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[35] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · strategic priorities · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[36] CCI Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-22 · Q&A on land, satellite and fiber · 2026-04-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[37] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · growth drivers · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[38] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Q&A on low point and services · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[39] CCI 10-K filed 2026-02-23 · new technologies risk · 2026-02-23 · 10-K · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051470/000105147026000016/

[40] CCI 8-K filed 2026-07-22 · outlook changes · 2026-07-22 · 8-K · https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001051470&type=8-K

[41] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · stated risks · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[42] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · DISH claim update · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[43] CCI Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-07-22 · Q&A on DISH escrow · 2026-07-22 · earnings-call · https://gateway.drillr.ai/mcp/private

[44] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · 2026 Restructuring Plan charges · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[45] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · debt repayment · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[46] CCI 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 · share repurchase · 2026-08-05 · 10-Q · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001051470/000105147026000074/cci-20260630.htm

[47] GuruFocus 2026-08-20 · Crown Castle Draws an Upgrade With a Lower Price Target · 2026-08-20 · Barclays(GuruFocus 报道) · https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9044986/crown-castle-draws-an-upgrade-with-a-lower-price-target

[48] 24/7 Wall St. 2026-09-21 · Crown Castle Cut Its Dividend. Is What Is Left Worth Owning for Income? · 2026-09-21 · 24/7 Wall St. · https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/crown-castle-cut-dividend-left-113538158.html