South African Consumer Lending Adds Alternative Data Amid Online Betting Pressure
Summary
AVI grew FY2026 revenue 1.4% on pricing as volume fell, while Old Mutual added alternative data after some borrowers failed credit checks.
In earnings calls from March through September 2026, AVI Limited (AVSFY) and Old Mutual Limited (ODMUF) described the same South African online betting pressure from different sides. AVI said betting was taking spending from traditional consumption as FY2026 revenue rose 1.4% but volume fell. Old Mutual said some borrowers who previously passed credit assessment were now failing.[1][2]
Prepaid vouchers obscure where household money goes
South African consumers can buy prepaid vouchers on a mobile phone and then use them for online betting. For a consumer-products company, that money leaves food, footwear and other traditional categories without appearing as a competing brand in retail scanner data. For a lender, the account record may show only a voucher purchase, leaving conventional credit-bureau and affordability checks unable to identify its final use.
The same payment route therefore changes two business decisions. AVI sees weaker category volume but cannot identify the rival through market-share data. Old Mutual sees reduced disposable income and an origination model that understates risk. The outflow is the same, while the operating effects appear in sales volume, credit approval, provisions and policy persistency.
Volume and credit screening now show observable effects
AVI reported only 1.4% revenue growth in FY2026. The increase came mainly from pricing taken to recover higher input costs, while lower volumes offset part of it.[1] Management also said online betting had barely existed a decade earlier but now materially affected the traditional consumption basket. With household discretionary income constrained, AVI is emphasizing accessible price points.
Old Mutual disclosed a more direct lending effect. Management said some customers who would normally have passed credit assessment were now failing, leading the company to add extra or alternative data at origination.[2] In the first half of 2026, banking and lending was flat and Old Mutual Finance recorded additional credit provisioning.[3] This shows the payment blind spot entering risk selection, but the company did not quantify betting-related losses.
Customer access and risk data may become more valuable
This shift moves business control points in two directions. Consumer brands need to watch whether volume and price tiers recover, while lenders need more granular transaction data to assess affordability. Channels and data providers that can identify the ultimate use of a payment may become more important. Betting operators are growing at the receiving end, but regional revenue cannot all be attributed to South Africa or treated as money taken directly from AVI or Old Mutual.
The boundary is clear. The South African Reserve Bank considers gambling small relative to spending on essential goods and services. In the same fiscal year, value retailer Shoprite still increased volume by 5.6% and customer visits by 5.3%.[4] The evidence therefore supports pressure on selected consumer price points and some borrowers, not an equal effect across all households, retailers or lenders.
Companies exposed to this shift
- Lesaka Technologies (LSAK): Lesaka operates both South African unsecured microloans and prepaid-voucher channels, exposing it to affordability checks and a payment route whose final use can be difficult to identify. Current evidence does not show that betting has driven its credit losses.
- Super Group (SGHC): Betway sits at the receiving end, and Super Group's Africa revenue grew 36% in Q2 2026. The disclosure covers all of Africa, so it does not establish a specific benefit from South African betting.[5]
- Mr Price Group (MRPLY): Its apparel and retail-credit businesses face both discretionary-income diversion and credit-screening changes. Management identified online betting as a competitor for consumer wallets, but its net bad-debt ratio remained among the industry's lowest.[6]
Sources
[1] Drillr · AVI Limited · September 7, 2026 · FY2026 earnings call
“I think everybody can get the data. I mean it's a significant I guess, consumer category. What else can I call it? People are spending money on online gambling, and it's significant. And you can get the data and many other people report it. So for sure, it's affected, I think, the broad basket of consumption in traditional categories. And there's only so much money that every consumer has. So it is certainly a number that 10 years ago didn't exist and has built to the very significant number it is today.”
[2] Drillr · Old Mutual · March 17, 2026 · 2025 annual results call
[3] Drillr · Old Mutual · September 8, 2026 · H1 2026 results call
[4] Drillr · Shoprite Holdings · September 1, 2026 · FY2026 earnings call; Business Day · South African Reserve Bank · April 7, 2026 · Gambling expenditure analysis · https://www.businessday.co.za/news/2026-04-07-reserve-bank-says-online-betting-surge-not-denting-household-spending/
[5] Drillr · Super Group · August 5, 2026 · Q2 2026 earnings call
[6] Drillr · Mr Price Group · June 5, 2026 · FY2026 earnings call
This article identifies potentially overlooked industry changes and companies. It is not a stock recommendation.