WNC
NYSE · Industrials · Agricultural - Machinery · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Oct 29, 2026
- EPS estimate
- -$0.46
- Revenue estimate
- $446.8M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Jul 29, 2026
- EPS actual
- -$0.53
- EPS estimate
- -$0.56
- Revenue actual
- $417.2M
- Revenue estimate
- $401.3M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 6
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 6
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- -36.1%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 3
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Buy
- Price target
- $23
- PT range
- $20 – $25
- Analysts
- 2
Q2 FY2026 · Jul 29, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
Safety Performance
- Improved workplace injury rate for the fourth consecutive quarter: down 13% quarter-over-quarter vs Q1 2026, 33% year-over-year vs Q2 2025, with total injuries down 50% year-over-year
- Long-term target is an injury rate below 1; increased focus on onboarding safety and quality ahead of planned dry van production increases
Market and Demand Environment
- Management confirms growing conviction that a freight market recovery is underway, supported by stronger carrier economics, federal safety enforcement, and improving industry fundamentals
- Leading industry indicators are positive: spot rates reached ~40% above 2025 levels by June (surpassing contract rates), tender rejection rates hit 16% (highest since 2018), truck tonnage is up year-over-year, ISM Manufacturing has been in expansion for 6 consecutive months, and the Logistics Manager's Index hit its highest level since early 2022
- Total backlog grew 14% quarter-over-quarter to $956 million at end-Q2 2026, marking the first second-quarter backlog growth in company history, indicating customers are shifting from order deferral to committed replacement demand after three years of fleet aging
Strategic and Operational Actions
- Opened the 2027 production order book in late June, earlier than the traditional order cycle, to meet customer demand for earlier delivery and pricing visibility
- Strengthened balance sheet flexibility: closed a $150 million convertible senior notes offering after quarter-end to add working capital for the upcoming production ramp, and is nearing completion of a revolving credit agreement refinancing with $300 million in committed lender funding
- Progressed the anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) case filed with the ITC in late 2025: received affirmative preliminary rulings setting 82-129% CVD rates and 131% anti-dumping rates for Chinese imported trailers, with 2% CVD for Mexican trailers and anti-dumping rates for Mexico pending; 25% Section 232 tariffs on full imported trailer value remain in effect, and are stackable with new AD/CVD rates
- 95% of Wabash production materials are sourced from the U.S., and the new Lafayette Southland facility has added 120,000 units of annual dry van capacity
- Disciplined pricing to recover cumulative cost increases absorbed during the market downturn: pricing improvements will be incremental through 2026, with larger impacts on results starting in 2027 as newly quoted orders enter the backlog
- Continuing development of AI-powered digital tools for the parts business to improve parts findability, availability, and long-term margin and revenue performance
Guidance
- Q3 2026 guidance is maintained broadly in line with prior qualitative expectations, with expected revenue of $440 million to $460 million, an expected non-GAAP operating margin of approximately -4%, and adjusted diluted EPS expected to be a loss of $0.50 to $0.40 per share
- Management expects Q4 2026 revenue to see typical seasonal sequential decline compared to Q3, but adjusted EPS will improve sequentially as cost recovery from pricing actions flows through financial results, alongside ongoing focused cost control
- Management reaffirms prior expectation of positive adjusted EBITDA for the second half of 2026
- No full-year 2026 or full-year 2027 quantitative guidance is provided at this time
- If 2027 trailer demand reaches industry forecasts of 260,000 total units (replacement-level demand), management expects to return to a normalized 2027 adjusted EBITDA range of $150 million to $170 million, in line with historical profitability at similar demand levels
Segment performance
Wabash operates two core business segments, with the following Q2 2026 financial performance:
- Transportation Solutions: Generated $355 million in revenue, representing approximately 85% of total consolidated company revenue. The segment reported a non-GAAP operating loss of $12.1 million, and returned to positive gross margin for the quarter, supported by higher volume and improved fixed cost leverage.
- Parts and Services: Generated $63 million in revenue, representing approximately 15% of total consolidated company revenue. The segment delivered $6 million in non-GAAP operating income. Segment profitability improved quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher up-fit business profitability as new upfit sites completed startup and began generating consistent revenue after incurring elevated initial startup costs in Q1 2026.
Risks & headwinds
- Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic shocks could delay or disrupt the expected freight market recovery
- Current near-term margins remain suppressed because cumulative material cost increases from the multi-year downturn have not yet been fully recovered through pricing, creating pressure on near-term profitability
- The AD/CVD case for Mexican imports is still pending final outcomes, so full impacts of the trade measures are not yet finalized
Analyst Q&A
Q: The Q2 EPS result and Q3 guidance were weaker than expected. Is this due to ongoing low pricing in existing backlog and pre-ramp efficiency headwinds, and how much better is pricing in the current $956 million backlog compared to prior quarters? / A: Management confirms the characterization is correct. Pricing improvements started in mid-Q2, but these higher-priced orders will mostly impact results in late Q3, Q4, and 2027, as the existing backlog is worked through. Around 200-300 basis points of incremental material margin improvement is expected in Q4 2026, backed by orders already in backlog, with new 2027 orders currently priced to fully offset 2026 material cost increases.
Q: If 2027 trailer demand reaches the widely expected replacement-level of ~260,000 units, can Wabash return to historical normalized EBITDA levels of $150-$200 million? / A: Management confirms that if 2027 demand hits the forecast replacement level, Wabash expects to return to normalized EBITDA in the $150-$170 million range. Current pricing for 2027 already covers cumulative inflationary costs from the past 2-3 years and is sufficient to deliver this profitability, and large carriers have confirmed their stated intent to increase replacement purchases in 2027, aligning with consensus forecasts.
Q: What has customer reaction been to the early opening of the 2027 order book, and has it driven stronger early order flow than typical? / A: The order book was opened early in direct response to customer requests for earlier pricing and capacity visibility, and customers have followed through with active early quoting and deal closure. Dealer preparation for 2027 is already 6-9 months ahead of the past two years, and the strong Q2 backlog growth trend (atypical for the second quarter) has continued into July.
Q: How will margin expansion occur as demand recovers, and can margins return to historical levels for both segments? / A: Most margin expansion will come from price increases to fully recover cumulative inflationary costs, with additional leverage from higher volume on Wabash's fixed cost base. For Parts and Services, margins are currently depressed by upfit site startup costs; management expects margins to return to the mid-to-high teens over the next two to three years, driven by volume growth in high-margin durable components and proprietary aftermarket parts, plus incremental pricing recovery for inflation.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Oct 29, 2026