Research · Sep 3, 2026
[TXN] Texas Instruments Thesis 2026: Analog Cycle Recovery + 300mm Wafer Investment Anchor Long-Term Position
Texas Instruments FY2025 revenue ~$16B (+5-10% YoY recovering from FY2024 cyclical trough $15.6B = -22% from FY2022 peak $20B). Adj. operating margin recovered to 38% (from FY2024 36.5% trough vs FY2021-22 peak ~50%). Multi-year capex investment ($25-30B+ FY2022-2030 on 300mm wafer transition) supports structural cost advantage vs peer analog producers using 200mm wafers — ~30-40% of TI analog production at 300mm wafers as of FY2025, target 60-70% by FY2028-2030. End-market mix shifted toward industrial (36%) + automotive (25%) at higher analog content per system. CEO Haviv Ilan continued multi-year capex + operational discipline philosophy from Rich Templeton 27-year predecessor tenure. FY2026 thesis: analog cycle recovery continues; 300mm capex translates to operating margin recovery toward 45%+ as depreciation stabilizes + revenue scales; FY2027 EPS $7.50-8.50; key risks: sustained analog cycle weakness, capex pressure on FCF, competitive intensity from Asian analog producers.