Research · Sep 3, 2026
[TX] Ternium S.A. Thesis 2026: Mexico Pesquería Drives Latin America Flat Steel Capital Return
Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX; BVL: TX) FY2025 revenue ~$16.5-17.5B (-2-5%) with adj. EPS ~$3.25-3.85 ADR reflecting continued post-2024 ~$16.5-17.5B aggregate Latin America Flat Steel + Long Steel + Iron Ore + Mining revenue (~$13.0-13.8B aggregate Mexico + ~$2.3-2.5B aggregate Southern Region (Argentina + Brazil + Colombia + Bolivia) + ~$0.8-1.0B aggregate Other (USA Long Steel + Mining)) under continued President + CEO Máximo Vedoya since June 2024 (~1-year tenure as Ternium CEO; selected primary Techint Group Rocca family ~62%+ aggregate ownership concentration). The largest Latin American specialty Flat Steel + Long Steel producer. Founded 2005 as Ternium S.A. via merger of Hylsamex (Mexico) + Sidor (Venezuela; later nationalized 2008) + Siderar (Argentina) by Techint Group in Luxembourg (~20-year heritage as Ternium; ~75-year Techint Group + Rocca family founding heritage); selected post-February 2006 NYSE IPO ADR; selected post-2007 USA Long Steel acquisitions; selected post-2008 Venezuela Sidor nationalization; selected post-2017 Brazilian Usiminas ~30%+ ownership investment; selected post-2022 ~$3.5-4.5B+ Pesquería Mexico Phase 2 hot-rolling mill capex commitment; selected post-June 2024 Máximo Vedoya CEO appointment. Headquartered in Luxembourg + Buenos Aires Argentina; ~22,000-24,000 employees globally with Latin American + USA Flat Steel + Long Steel + Iron Ore Mining manufacturing footprint (Pesquería Mexico + San Nicolás Argentina + Apodaca Mexico + USA + Brazil + Colombia + Bolivia). Three primary segments: Mexico ~78%+ ($13.0-13.8B), Southern Region ~14%+ ($2.3-2.5B), Other (USA + Iron Ore Mining) ~5-7% ($0.8-1.0B). Mexico Pesquería + Flat Steel + Hot-Dipped Galvanized pipeline (~$13.0-13.8B): ~$13.0-13.8B aggregate Mexico revenue (~78%+ revenue mix); selected primary Pesquería Mexico ~6.4-6.8Mt aggregate Hot-Rolled Coil + Cold-Rolled Coil + Galvanized Steel; selected ~70%+ Mexico Flat Steel market share; selected Mexico Automotive (USMCA + nearshoring) + Construction + Industrial end-market exposure; selected ~$700-850 Hot-Rolled Coil realized price per Mt; selected ~$3.5-4.5B Pesquería Phase 2 capex commitment (post-2025 hot-rolling mill startup). Southern Region + USA Long Steel + Iron Ore Mining pipeline: selected continued post-2017 Brazilian Usiminas ~30%+ ownership investment; selected ~$2.3-2.5B Southern Region revenue (~14%+; Argentina San Nicolás + Brazil Usiminas + Colombia hot-rolled coil + Bolivia Bolivian Steel); selected ~$0.8-1.0B USA Long Steel + Iron Ore Mining revenue (~5-7%; post-2007 USA Steel acquisitions + Iron Ore mining captive supply). President + CEO Máximo Vedoya since June 2024 (~1-year tenure); CFO Pablo Brizzio. Capital position: ~$0.90-1.20 aggregate annual ADR dividend (~30-35%+ aggregate payout ratio; ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$535-720M FY2025; net leverage ~negligible (~debt-light + ~$2.5-3.5B aggregate cash + investments balance); investment-grade Baa3/BBB- credit rating; ~196-198M aggregate ADR-equivalent diluted shares; ~62%+ Techint Group + Rocca family ownership concentration via Class A. FY2026 thesis: Mexico Pesquería + Flat Steel + Hot-Dipped Galvanized pipeline + Southern Region + USA Long Steel + Iron Ore Mining diversification + Pesquería Phase 2 hot-rolling mill startup + ~62%+ Techint Group + Rocca family ownership + ~3.5-4.5% aggregate dividend yield. Risks: ArcelorMittal (Mexico + global) + AHMSA + Nucor + Steel Dynamics + Cleveland-Cliffs + Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional + Gerdau competitive displacement + Mexican peso (MXN) currency considerations + Argentine peso (ARS) depreciation considerations + Trump administration USMCA + steel tariff policy cycle considerations + Chinese steel import surge considerations + Mexico Automotive USMCA + nearshoring cycle considerations + Bolivian government Bolivian Steel renegotiation considerations + post-2025 Pesquería Phase 2 startup execution considerations.