Research · Sep 3, 2026
TotalEnergies FY25 (Dec 31, 2025) at $182.3B revenue (-6.8%). Net income $13.13B (-17%, lower Brent prices); Diluted EPS $5.78. Hydrocarbon production +4% Q3 QoQ; E&P Q3 adj NI $2.2B (+10% QoQ) cash flow $4B. Integrated LNG sales 10.4 Mt Q3 cash flow $1.1B. Integrated Power Q3 generation +9% QoQ. Downstream Q3 NOI $1.1B (+30% QoQ on EU refining margins). FCF $10.81B (-32%); capex $17.64B. Capital return $16.48B (div $8.45B + buyback $8.03B). Q4 2025: $1.5B incremental buyback authorized. ADR program terminated; ordinary shares NYSE from Dec 8 2025. Total debt $61.4B. 3 analysts: 1 Buy / 2 Hold; consensus $94.50, range $92-$97. JPM upgraded N→OW (Mar 2); Scotiabank $73→$97 (+$24, largest PT raise); Piper $74→$92.
Research · Apr 30, 2026
The Hormuz blockade creates a bifurcated outcome: LNG producers with Middle East assets (Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies) face 2-3 quarter supply disruptions and margin compression, while refining-heavy majors and integrated producers with refining exposure benefit from crude-product spread widening. Consensus has treated all majors symmetrically on Brent upside, missing the structural divergence. LNG-heavy names should underperform the refining basket by 5-10% over the next 2-3 quarters.
Research · Apr 23, 2026
Record refining margins and jet fuel spikes position VLO, MPC and PSX for 15-25% Q2 beats, overlooked in consensus models. Coastal giants lead on complexity and scale versus mid-tiers. Falsifies on crack collapse below $15/bbl by Q3 end.
Research · Apr 13, 2026
Japan's consideration of releasing 20 days of oil reserves on April 9, 2026, signals response to Middle East-driven supply squeezes, capping near-term Brent upside but affirming pricing support for majors. XOM, CVX, TTE, and PBR boast fortress finances—$23B+ FCF each—and YTD gains of 25-61%, positioning them bullishly amid volatility. Investors should monitor release execution and OPEC+ reactions for next price leg.
Research · Apr 10, 2026
WTI hits $102.30/bbl on Iran conflict supply fears, testing TTE CEO's 3-4 month persistence warning. TTE and XOM shine with strong FCF, low leverage, and production growth, outperforming SPY YTD amid undervalued multiples. Bullish on majors if rally holds.
Research · Apr 9, 2026
Crude oil rebounded on April 8, 2026, after its sharpest drop since 2020, as the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, stalling the Q2 selloff and boosting energy ETFs like USO while SPY endures volatility. Energy leaders like TTE and CVE show strong 1-3 month gains, contrasting SPY's swings. Bullish on energy amid supply risks; watch Hormuz updates and earnings.
Research · Mar 12, 2026
Gulf conflict escalation creates a geopolitical risk premium benefiting oil producers in the $80–100 Brent range, but sustained prices above $100–110 risk triggering demand destruction in import-dependent emerging markets. EOG Resources and Shell offer the best risk-adjusted positioning, while BP carries the highest combined balance sheet and operational risk.
