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TJX

The TJX Companies, Inc.

NYSE · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail · US

$132.47
+0.21%
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Research · Sep 3, 2026

[TJX] TJX Companies Thesis 2026: Off-Price Treasure-Hunt Model + Vendor Inventory Sourcing + Consumer Trade-Down Resilience Anchor Comparable Sales Compounding

TJX Companies FY2025 revenue ~$57-58B (+5-7%) with adj. EPS ~$4.30-4.60 reflecting strong comparable sales growth (+3-5%) on continued consumer trade-down resilience as economic uncertainty drives shoppers to off-price value + treasure-hunt store experience + selected new store openings. Largest US off-price apparel + home retailer operating 5 banners across 4,900+ stores in 9 countries: Marmaxx (T.J. Maxx + Marshalls US, ~$32B = 56%), HomeGoods (~$9B = 16%), TJX International (~$8B = 14%), TJX Canada (~$5B = 9%), Sierra (~$1B = 2%). CEO Ernie Herrman since January 2016 (succeeded Carol Meyrowitz CEO 2007-2016 + founder Bernard Cammarata CEO 1986-2007 — multi-decade execution culture continuity). Off-price model: ~1,300 buyers globally with multi-decade vendor relationships sourcing opportunistic inventory from designer + branded manufacturers (excess + cancellations + closeouts + made-for-off-price) + treasure-hunt store experience (~50K SKUs per store + 20-60% off department store prices). Comparable sales positive 25+ consecutive years (rare among retail peers). Net unit growth target +3-5%/yr (~80-100 new stores). International expansion: Germany 150 stores + Poland 80 stores + selected; pipeline France/Spain/Italy. Capital return: dividend $1.50-1.65/share (24+ consecutive year increases) + buybacks $2-3B; net cash $5B+; A2/A investment grade. FY2026 thesis: comparable sales compounding + new store expansion + capital return discipline. Risks: vendor inventory tightening, consumer spending normalization, competitive intensity from Burlington + Ross.

Research · Mar 12, 2026

How do TJX and Ross's margins compare to Ollie's and Burlington as the off-price sector matures?

Burlington and Ollie's carry significantly higher gross margins (41.9% and 40.3%) than TJX and Ross (31.1% and 27.9%), but the larger players convert more efficiently — TJX and Ross deliver 12.0% and 11.9% operating margins respectively versus Burlington's 8.9%. Ross emerges as the quiet margin leader with a best-in-class 9.7% FCF margin, while Burlington's 21.6% EBITDA growth signals the fastest margin expansion trajectory in the group.

Research · Mar 12, 2026

How does Ollie's gross margin compare to TJX and Burlington as closeout deal flow tightens?

Ollie's 40.3% TTM gross margin ranks between Burlington (41.9%) and well above TJX (31.1%) and Ross (27.9%), but OLLI's quarterly margins compressed 180bps YoY in Q4 2025 while TJX expanded by 140bps. The divergence highlights OLLI's vulnerability to tightening closeout supply versus TJX's diversified sourcing model, with operating margin (10.2% vs TJX's 13.0%) further constrained by SGA deleveraging at smaller scale.

Research · Mar 12, 2026

Which regions offer the best whitespace for Ollie's next 750 stores?

Ollie's operates 645 stores across 34 states with distribution infrastructure supporting up to 750 locations, targeting 1,300+ long-term. The Deep South (backfill), Upper Midwest (Princeton DC unlock), and Mountain West (long-term frontier) represent the highest-potential whitespace regions, supported by a capital-efficient unit model (~$1M investment, ~2-year payback) and an unprecedented bankruptcy-acquisition pipeline that delivered 63 of 86 new stores in FY2025.