TFPM
NYSE · Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals · CA
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 3, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $0.32
- Revenue estimate
- $111.5M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 6, 2026
- EPS actual
- $0.39
- EPS estimate
- $0.33
- Revenue actual
- $129.2M
- Revenue estimate
- $129.2M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 10
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 1
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +8.8%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 2
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Buy
- Price target
- $39
- PT range
- $37 – $40
- Analysts
- 3
Q2 FY2026 · Aug 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
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Project Development Staging
- The core stream transaction is tied to the deeper ore zone of a major project, which holds over 95% of the project's total economic value
- The project operator has shifted to a phased development approach, which management views as appropriate for a developing mining company
- Glencore has provided large-scale financing that covers early development work, which management sees as an endorsement of the project's quality
- Management retains a right (not obligation) to fund the stream, and will complete evaluation and invest once the project advances toward deeper zone development
-
Production Expansion Opportunities
- Phase 2 expansion of a producing asset can double production from current levels, with potential to triple or even exceed that output
- Management's base investment case is based on the current 20,000 ton nameplate capacity, so any expansion represents upside for the firm
-
Capital Allocation Framework
- The firm targets a minimum operating cash balance of $10 million to $15 million, as it maintains a credit facility and does not need large idle cash reserves on the balance sheet
- Both dividend increases and the Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) share buyback program are part of the firm's broader capital allocation strategy
- Management will opportunistically execute share buybacks when they see value in the firm's stock, alongside pursuing active deal pipeline development
-
Corporate Development Pipeline
- The transaction pipeline remains as robust as it has been over the prior 18 months
- Most target deals fall in the $100 million to $500 million range, though management is also evaluating some larger transactions
- Most targets are in investor-friendly jurisdictions, and the bulk of opportunities are in precious metals (gold and silver), aligned with shareholder expectations
- The firm will opportunistically evaluate non-precious metal deals on a selective basis, and will maintain the portfolio as 90% gold and silver
Guidance
- Full year 2024 guidance is updated to expect results in the top half of the 100,000 to 110,000 ounce range, which includes contribution from the Ravenswood stream
- The firm does not provide explicit quarterly production guidance; management notes there is no material expected difference in output between Q3 2024 and Q4 2024, aligned with the full year annual guidance
- For long-term production beyond 2030, management's base visible guidance is 150,000 to 160,000 GEOs from four core assets, with additional upside potential from further exploration and early-stage projects that will be added to guidance as visibility improves
- North Parks has potential for incremental gold output as higher processing capacity enables further evaluation of gold-only mineralization, with the E44 pit life expected to be 2x to 3x the base minimum delivery volume
- Arthur Gold and Hope Bay both have material potential to grow annual production above the base numbers included in current long-term outlooks
Segment performance
No full segment-level financial performance data (absolute revenue or revenue contribution percentages) is provided in the included transcript excerpt. Only individual asset delivery notes are included in Q&A discussion.
Risks & headwinds
No explicit discussion of material risks or operational failures is included in the provided transcript excerpt.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Analyst asks what the timeline is for funding the firm's stream on the deep ore zone of the project. / A: The original development plan focused on the high-value deeper ore zone, which holds over 95% of the project's total economic value. The project operator has shifted to phased development, which management views as appropriate. Glencore's new financing covers early development, and management retains a right (not obligation) to fund the stream, and will evaluate and invest when the project advances to developing the deep zone. Glencore's participation endorses the project, and the stream's economics remain robust.
Q: Analyst asks if Ravenswood production is included in 2026 guidance and what to expect for 2024 H2 quarterly deliveries. / A: Updated 2024 full-year guidance, which expects results in the top half of the 100,000 to 110,000 ounce range, does include the Ravenswood stream contribution. Management does not provide explicit quarterly guidance, but notes no material difference is expected between Q3 and Q4 2024 output. The firm's focus is on hitting the full-year annual guidance number.
Q: Analyst asks about long-term production beyond 2030 and the contribution of four core assets, asking if total output could approach 200,000 GEOs. / A: The 150,000 to 160,000 GEO base outlook only includes assets with clear line of sight to production. Additional early-stage projects have the potential to add incremental output above that base range. North Parks, Arthur Gold, and Hope Bay all have material exploration and expansion upside to grow output above base guidance numbers, with additional projects added to the outlook as permitting and funding clarity improves.
Q: Analyst asks about the Impala asset's higher quarterly delivery and what run rate to expect going forward. / A: The higher Q2 delivery is mostly due to a delivery that slipped from Q1 into Q2. Impala's delivery run rate is typically consistent quarter-over-quarter. A small uptick in deliveries is expected over the next 1-2 years as the mine operator increases output from the steel drift mining area, but the increase will not be large.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 3, 2026