Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SWK] Stanley Black & Decker Thesis 2026: Cost Savings Program Delivers, Earnings Recovery Guided
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. FY25 (Jan year-end ending Jan 2026) revenue $15.13B (-2% reported / -1% organic); op income $1.15B; NI $402M (+40%); EPS GAAP $2.65 (+36%); adj EPS $4.67 (+7%, record post-restructuring). Adjusted gross margin expanded 70bp to 30.7%; adjusted EBITDA +5%. Q4 revenue down 1% reported / -3% organic; adjusted gross margin 33.3%; adjusted EBITDA margin 13.5% (+330bp YoY); adjusted EPS $1.41; FCF $880M+ Q4. Q4 segment performance — Tools and Outdoor: revenue ~$3.2B (-2%); organic -4% (pricing +5% offset by volume -9%); currency +2%; adjusted segment margin 13.6% (+340bp YoY); FY organic -2%. Engineered fastening: Q4 revenue +6% reported / +8% organic (volume +7%, pricing +1%, FX +1%, product line transfer -3%); adjusted segment margin 12.1%; FY organic +3%. $2.1B run-rate pretax cost savings since mid-2022 + continued ~3% annual productivity savings target. December 22 announced sale of aerospace fasteners business; net proceeds to significantly reduce debt. FCF $688M; total debt $5.86B (-11% YoY); dividend $501M (+2%, ~50+ year progressive dividend). FY26 guide: adjusted EPS $4.90-$5.70 (+13% midpoint growth) including half-year contribution from CAM acquisition; FCF $700M-$900M; total revenue +low single digits; adjusted gross margin +~150bp expansion; Tools and Outdoor low single-digit organic; Engineered fastening mid-single digit organic. Risks: Tools cycle dependency, cost reduction execution, competitive landscape (Snap-on, Makita, Bosch, Hilti, Techtronic Industries / Milwaukee + Ryobi, Stihl, Husqvarna).