STUB
NYSE · Technology · Software - Application · US
Next report
Analyst consensus
- Next report date
- Nov 12, 2026
- EPS estimate
- $0.13
- Revenue estimate
- $513.7M
Latest reported
- Last report date
- Aug 12, 2026
- EPS actual
- $0.04
- EPS estimate
- $0.11
- Revenue actual
- $573.1M
- Revenue estimate
- $513.3M
Track record
Trailing twelve quarters
- EPS beats (12Q)
- 2
- EPS misses (12Q)
- 2
- EPS in line (12Q)
- 0
- Avg surprise (4Q)
- +153.8%
- Revenue beats (12Q)
- 3
Analyst ratings
Sell-side consensus
- Consensus
- Buy
- Price target
- $11
- PT range
- $7.50 – $14
- Analysts
- 7
Q2 FY2026 · Aug 12, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A · For informational purposes only, not investment advice
Management highlights
- Core Marketplace & Live Event Demand • StubHub delivered a strong Q2 2026, with results highlighting the strength of its asset-light marketplace model and the resale segment's critical role in the live events ecosystem • Overall consumer demand for live experiences across sports, concerts, and theater remains healthy, with a robust full-year 2026 event calendar • The 2026 World Cup was a standout event that validated StubHub's global scale and operational capability: fans from over 150 countries purchased World Cup tickets through the platform, demonstrating the value of connecting global demand to liquid supply • A small subset of World Cup orders experienced fulfillment issues; management proactively increased investments in customer support and fulfillment to address issues, and remains focused on improving the customer experience to reach 100% successful fulfillment
- Strategic Growth Initiatives • Open distribution: StubHub is expanding non-exclusive access to its global marketplace for event rights holders, enabling them to access global demand and pricing data without giving up primary ticketing relationships. The company expanded self-service capabilities and added new partners including the NCAA American Conference in Q2, and continues to refine its AI-powered Distribution Manager platform • Advertising (sponsored listings): The company is optimizing the sponsored listings product to help sellers with time-sensitive inventory reach buyers more effectively, while improving fan discovery. Management remains focused on refining the product and user experience before large-scale rollout • Capital allocation: Strong free cash flow generation has enabled aggressive debt reduction: net leverage fell from 4.5x at end-2025 to 3.0x at end-Q2 2026, with $1.1 billion in total debt repaid over the last 12 months. Management remains focused on organic investment, continued deleveraging, and disciplined dilution management
- Regulatory Environment • Management aligns with regulatory goals of expanding fan access, increasing transparency, and improving trust in ticketing. StubHub operates in a generally favorable regulatory environment that supports open resale markets • Recent regulatory focus has been limited to high-markup resale of high-demand concert tickets, which management estimates represents only ~10% of 2025 global GMS, with no focus on sports ticketing. Recent policy outcomes (including newly passed DC legislation that carves out sports, and failed price cap proposals in multiple jurisdictions) reflect growing policy understanding of the resale market's role in the live events ecosystem • StubHub's diversified business model across sellers, event types, geographies, and rights holders provides insulation from potential regulatory changes affecting narrow subsets of the market
Guidance
- Full-year 2026 GMS guidance was raised to a range of $10.1 billion to $10.3 billion, representing 10% to 12% YoY growth, up from the prior guidance range of 8% to 10% YoY growth. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 performance driven by the World Cup
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is maintained at $400 million to $420 million, which includes incremental World Cup-related customer support and regulatory advocacy costs
- Management expects margin expansion in the second half of 2026, as temporary World Cup-related cost pressures subside and sales and marketing efficiency gains fully flow through to results. GMS to revenue conversion and gross margins have already returned to their structural mid-80% levels in the weeks following the World Cup
- Management maintained a disciplined approach to second half GMS guidance, citing uncertainty around potential post-World Cup shifts in consumer live event spending patterns, despite expectations for a robust back-half event calendar
Segment performance
StubHub reports consolidated results for its core ticketing resale marketplace, with new emerging high-margin segments of open distribution and advertising. Core resale marketplace: Q2 2026 Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) grew 34% YoY to $3.1 billion, total revenue grew 33% YoY to $573 million, adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled YoY to $106 million with an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin (up 600 bps YoY). International segment: GMS growth outpaced North American growth off a smaller base, with 1 in 7 World Cup tickets sold on the platform going to buyers outside the US and Canada. Advertising is an early-stage high-margin segment expected to generate tens of millions of dollars in full-year 2026 revenue, built on existing marketplace engagement. Open distribution is a nascent partner segment currently being refined with selective new partnerships, and does not yet contribute meaningful standalone revenue.
Risks & headwinds
- Post-World Cup consumer spending shift: There is uncertainty around whether the World Cup pulled forward consumer live event spending, which could lead to softer-than-expected demand in the second half of 2026
- Regulatory risk: While recent outcomes have been favorable, ongoing regulatory focus on high-markup concert resale could lead to new policies that impact a small but meaningful portion of StubHub's GMS, even with diversification providing insulation
- Operational fulfillment risk: Large-scale marquee events like the World Cup carry unique operational complexity that can lead to fulfillment issues for a small subset of customers, creating reputational risk and requiring incremental unplanned investment
- Potential work stoppage risk: A projected 2027 MLB work stoppage could lead to near-term lost demand for live sports ticketing, though management notes StubHub's diversified event portfolio means consumers would likely shift spending to other live event categories
- Dilution risk: Elevated stock-based compensation post-IPO creates potential for shareholder dilution, though management targets ongoing annual dilution in the low single digits
Analyst Q&A
Q: Sales and marketing delivered 800 bps of efficiency improvement in H1 2026. What is the company's sales and marketing philosophy for the second half, and what key strategic investments will the company make this half? / A: Management's 2026 core objective remains growing while expanding margins and building market leadership. Now that StubHub has achieved clear market leadership, it is naturally capturing operating leverage in sales and marketing. Temporary Q2 margin compression came from one-time World Cup-related direct costs. These costs will subside in the second half, and sales and marketing efficiency will continue to flow through, enabling clear margin expansion as guided.
Q: Why is back-half GMS guidance disciplined despite a strong event calendar, and can you provide an update on advertising progress? / A: Management maintains a grounded, disciplined guidance approach, and wants to wait for more data on potential post-World Cup consumer spending shifts before making more aggressive projections, even though it expects a strong back-half event calendar. Advertising (sponsored listings) remains on track to generate tens of millions of dollars in 2026 revenue. The company is still optimizing product mechanics, user experience, and seller adoption, and will not release detailed metrics until the product is fully refined.
Q: What was the World Cup's impact on Q2 GMS, and what are the lasting benefits and customer experience takeaways? / A: The World Cup performed above StubHub's expectations, and solidified StubHub's position as the leading global ticketing platform. The overwhelming majority of fans received successful fulfillment, but the company proactively made incremental one-time investments in customer support to address issues for the small subset of fans that experienced problems. The event highlighted StubHub's structural advantages in global scale and market leadership for large marquee events.
Q: What is the update on regulatory trends and the split of US vs international demand? / A: Live event demand remains resilient across both the US and international markets, with consistent strength in both regions. Regulatory focus is currently limited to high-markup resale of high-demand concerts, which only represents 10% of global GMS. Recent legislative outcomes (including DC's new law that exempts sports, and failed price cap proposals in the UK and New York) have been favorable, and policymakers are increasingly recognizing that price caps are not pro-consumer and lead to unregulated black markets.
Reported results against consensus at the time of each report · Surprise is computed from the estimate on record · Data as of Nov 12, 2026