Research · Sep 3, 2026
[SRE] Sempra Thesis 2026: Texas Oncor Data Center Growth + LNG Infrastructure Buildout + California Regulatory Navigation Anchor Three-Pillar Compounding
Sempra FY2025 revenue ~$13.5-14B (+1-3%) with adj. EPS ~$4.85-5.00 reflecting continued Texas Oncor data center load growth + Sempra Infrastructure (LNG export) capacity additions + California regulated growth partially offset by selected California regulatory challenges. California + Texas utility holding company + LNG export developer with diversified business model. 3 segments: Sempra California ~$8B (~58% — SDG&E electric+gas + SoCalGas largest US gas distribution utility; combined ~$37B rate base + ~25M customers), Sempra Texas ~$3B (~22% — Oncor 80% Sempra ownership in Texas largest electric utility serving ~13M Texans + ~$30B rate base; reported as equity earnings consolidation), Sempra Infrastructure ~$2-3B (~20% — Cameron LNG ~12M tonnes/yr operational since 2019 + Energía Costa Azul Phase 1 commissioning 2025-2026 + Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 ~13M tonnes/yr under construction commissioning H2 2025-H1 2026 + selected Mexican operations). CEO Jeff Martin since May 2018 (succeeded Debra Reed-Klages). Martin's tenure executed transformational strategic refocus: Oncor majority acquisition 2018 ($9.45B), Sempra Renewables divestiture, Cameron LNG operational 2019, Sempra Infrastructure strategic sale 30% to KKR + ADIA 2022 valuing Sempra Infrastructure at ~$25B+, 2023 rebrand. Capital return: dividend $2.58-2.62/share (22 consecutive year increases — S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat) + minimal buybacks; net debt $40B; Baa1/BBB+ investment grade. FY2026 thesis: Texas Oncor data center growth + LNG buildout + California navigation + dividend continuity. Risks: California regulatory environment shifts (wildfire + gas decarbonization), LNG project execution, data center load forecasting.