Research · Sep 3, 2026
[RSI] Rush Street Interactive Thesis 2026: iCasino-Heavy Online Mix Drives Adjusted EBITDA Inflection
Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (NYSE: RSI) is a US online casino (iCasino) and online sports betting (OSB) operator, founded 2012 as the online arm of Neil Bluhm's Rush Street Gaming (Rivers Casinos), listed on the NYSE via a 2020 SPAC merger with dMY Technology Group, and structured as an up-C entity (RSILP units; Class A / Class V shares). RSI enters FY2026 with FY2025 revenue ~$0.95-1.20B (+18-30% YoY off $0.92B FY2024), adj. EPS ~$0.05-0.20 and an adjusted EBITDA inflection to positive, all under President + CEO Richard Schwartz (CEO since ~2023, ~2-3 year tenure, ~10+ year Rush Street career, architect of the post-2023 disciplined-growth, path-to-profitability and iCasino-led strategy), with co-founder Neil Bluhm as Chairman. The first thesis pillar is the North America iCasino + Online Sports Betting pipeline (~$0.65-0.85B revenue, ~68-75% revenue mix): BetRivers and PlaySugarHouse online casino (slots, table games, live dealer) across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, West Virginia, Delaware and Connecticut — with iCasino the majority of North America Online, a higher-margin, higher-retention product than OSB — plus the BetRivers online sportsbook across ~15+ US states (PA, IL, NJ, MI, CO, NY, IN, VA, OH, MD and others) and retail sportsbook partnerships at Rush Street Gaming casinos, with disciplined player acquisition, improving marketing efficiency, MAU and ARPMAU growth, hold-rate and structural margin improvement, and iCasino legalization optionality; FY2026 catalyst is ~$0.75-1.00B North America Online revenue at ~28-38% contribution margin. The second pillar is the Latin America (Rush Street Interactive LatAm) + International pipeline (~$0.20-0.35B revenue, ~25-32% revenue mix): RushBet in Colombia (a leading market position) and Mexico (online casino + sports betting), BetRivers in Ontario Canada, plus new-market entry optionality (Brazil's regulated market, Peru and others), with Latin America MAU/ARPMAU growth and contribution-margin improvement; FY2026 catalyst is continued Latin America revenue growth plus Brazil entry. The capital story: no regular dividend (capital reinvestment, path-to-profitability priority), modest/opportunistic buybacks, a net cash position (~$0.2-0.4B cash, no/minimal debt), ~$0+ net leverage, a non-rated/self-funded credit profile, ~225-240M Class A shares (~410-430M fully diluted including Class V/RSILP units); positive free cash flow generation funds growth investment and selective M&A optionality. At ~$10-22 per share on ~410-430M fully-diluted shares (~$4-9B fully-diluted market cap) RSI trades at ~15-30x EV/EBITDA and ~3-6x P/Sales versus online-gaming peers FanDuel/Flutter, DraftKings, BetMGM/MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, Penn Entertainment/ESPN BET, Bally's, Codere Online, Betsson and Super Group. FY2026 base case is ~$1.0-1.3B revenue + ~$0.10-0.30B adj. EBITDA + ~$0.10-0.30 adj. EPS on a net cash balance sheet; bull case ~$1.2-1.5B revenue + ~$0.20-0.40B adj. EBITDA on iCasino-mix-driven margin gains plus Latin America acceleration plus possible strategic interest; bear case ~$0.95-1.10B revenue + ~$0.05-0.15B adj. EBITDA on competitive intensification from FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM, customer-acquisition-cost and promotional intensity, state tax-rate increases (Illinois, New Jersey and others), slow iCasino legalization, hold-rate variance, Latin America regulatory/tax/FX headwinds and up-C share-count considerations. The thesis depends on the North America iCasino + Online Sports Betting pipeline plus the Latin America + International pipeline plus the iCasino-heavy mix plus MAU/ARPMAU growth plus structural margin improvement plus the net cash balance sheet plus the adj. EBITDA inflection plus iCasino legalization optionality and Richard Schwartz's path-to-profitability execution.