Research · Sep 3, 2026
[PEN] Penumbra Thesis 2026: Thrombectomy Adoption Drives Gross Margin Toward Seventy Percent
Penumbra, Inc. FY25 revenue $1.40B (+17%); op income $189M (vs $9M FY24, +1939%); NI $178M (+1168%); EPS $4.52 (vs $0.36, +1156%). FCF $175M (+19%). Q3 FY25 latest disclosed: revenue $354.7M (+17.8% reported / +16.9% CC); US revenue $275M (+21.5%); thrombectomy $192M (+18.5%); VTE franchise +34%; US embolization + access $83M (+29.2%); International $79.7M (+6.6% / +3% CC); gross margin 67.8% (+130bp YoY); op income $48.8M (13.8% of revenue). Multi-year FY25 raised guidance: total revenue $1.375-$1.380B (13-15% YoY growth); reiterated US thrombectomy 20-21%; maintained gross + operating margin expansion. Gross margin on track to exceed 70% by 2026. FDA-cleared products in 2025: Lightning Bolt 16, Flash 3.0, Ruby XL. Thunderbolt FDA review ongoing. STORM-PE trial showed CAVT superiority vs anticoagulation alone in acute intermediate-high-risk PE. Built separate peripheral embolization sales force. China revenue $5M excluded from forecast. Total debt $220M (-2%); no buyback FY25 (vs $100M FY24). Risks: thrombectomy competition (Stryker, Medtronic, J&J Cerenovus, Imperative Care), embolization competition (Boston Scientific, Terumo, Cook), FDA regulatory, reimbursement, procedural volumes, FX (China exit dynamics).