Research · Sep 3, 2026
[ONTO] Onto Innovation Thesis 2026: Process Control Cycle Drives Advanced Packaging Recovery
Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) FY2025 revenue ~$1.05-1.15B (+18-30%) with adj. EPS ~$5.40-6.10 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$650-720M aggregate Process Control + Metrology semiconductor process control instruments revenue mix (~62%+ aggregate revenue) + selected continued post-2024 ~$280-320M aggregate Specialty Devices + Advanced Packaging semiconductor process control instruments revenue (~28%+ aggregate revenue) + selected continued post-2024 selected ~$100-120M aggregate Software + Services revenue (~10% aggregate revenue) under continued President + CEO Michael Plisinski since October 2019 (~6-year tenure as Onto Innovation CEO). One of the world's leading providers of semiconductor process control instruments + metrology solutions. Founded October 2019 as Onto Innovation Inc. via Rudolph Technologies + Nanometrics ~$1.4B aggregate merger (~6-year heritage); selected post-October 2019 NYSE listing transition; selected post-1981 Rudolph Technologies origin; selected post-1975 Nanometrics origin; selected post-October 2019 Michael Plisinski Onto Innovation CEO appointment. Headquartered in Wilmington Massachusetts; ~1,500+ employees globally with ~$1.05-1.15B revenue. Three primary product segments: Process Control + Metrology (~62%+ ~$650-720M), Advanced Packaging + Specialty Devices (~28%+ ~$280-320M), Software + Services (~10% ~$100-120M). End market mix: Wafer Fab + Foundry Process Control (~70%+ ~$735-805M), Advanced Packaging (~25-30% ~$260-290M), Specialty Devices + selected various (~5% ~$50-60M). Process Control + Metrology cycle: ~$650-720M aggregate Process Control + Metrology revenue FY2025 (~62%+ aggregate revenue mix); selected continued post-2024 selected major US + Asian wafer fab + selected various foundry semiconductor process control instruments demand recovery; selected primary Atlas + selected various film thickness + selected various critical dimension + selected various advanced overlay metrology + selected various inline + offline process control instruments + selected various Iris + selected various. Advanced Packaging + Specialty Devices: ~$280-320M aggregate Advanced Packaging + Specialty Devices revenue FY2025 (~28%+ aggregate revenue mix); selected continued post-2024 selected various TSMC + selected various Samsung + selected various Intel + selected various Apple iPhone advanced packaging + selected various AI accelerator advanced packaging + selected various 2.5D + 3D advanced packaging process control demand recovery. President + CEO Michael Plisinski since October 2019 (~6-year tenure); CFO Mark Slicer. Capital return + cash position: selected modest opportunistic buybacks; selected post-2024 ~$80-120M aggregate FY2024-2025 buyback program (~$50-80M aggregate FY2025); aggregate capital return ~$50-80M FY2025; selected post-2024 net cash position ~$830-880M; selected post-2024 ~$0M aggregate net debt position; selected pathway to dividend initiation FY2026-2027. FY2026 thesis: Process Control + Metrology cycle + Advanced Packaging + Specialty Devices growth + selected continued post-2024 selected various AI accelerator + 2.5D + 3D advanced packaging design wins + ~$830-950M aggregate cash + investments balance + selected pathway to dividend initiation FY2026-2027 + selected potential post-2024 capital return acceleration. Risks: semiconductor process control instruments cyclical recovery sustainability, KLA + Applied Materials + Lam Research competitive intensity, Advanced Packaging cycle, wafer fab + foundry cycle, post-October 2019 Rudolph + Nanometrics integration.