Research · Sep 3, 2026
[OGE] OGE Energy Thesis 2026: Oklahoma Rate Base Drives Data Center Load Growth
OGE Energy Corp. (NYSE: OGE) FY2025 revenue ~$3.05-3.20B (+5-9%) with adj. EPS ~$2.20-2.40 reflecting continued post-2024 ~$2.85-2.95B aggregate Electric Utility revenue (~93%+ aggregate revenue mix; selected primary Oklahoma + Arkansas regulated electric utility) + selected continued post-2024 ~$200-250M aggregate Other revenue (~7% aggregate revenue mix; selected primary OGE Holdings energy services) under continued President + CEO Sean Trauschke since 2015 (~10-year tenure as OGE Energy CEO). One of the largest US Oklahoma + Arkansas-focused regulated electric utility holding companies. Founded 1902 as Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company in Oklahoma City Oklahoma (~123-year heritage); selected post-1995 OGE Energy Corp. holding company restructuring; selected post-2018 Enable Midstream sale to Energy Transfer creating selected pure-play utility; selected post-2015 Sean Trauschke CEO appointment. Headquartered in Oklahoma City Oklahoma; ~2,300-2,500+ employees globally with ~$3.05-3.20B revenue. One primary business: Oklahoma + Arkansas regulated electric utility (~93%+ ~$2.85-2.95B); Other (~7% ~$200-250M). Geographic mix: US ~100%; selected primary Oklahoma + Arkansas footprint. Oklahoma + Arkansas regulated electric utility cycle: ~$2.85-2.95B Electric Utility revenue; ~890,000+ aggregate electric customers (~825,000 Oklahoma + ~65,000 Arkansas); ~9.5-10.5% aggregate authorized ROE; ~+5-7% aggregate Electric Utility revenue growth. Data center load growth + post-2024 hyperscale ramp: ~+5-15% aggregate annual peak load growth (selected primary post-2024 Oklahoma City + Stillwater hyperscale data center load growth); ~$8-10B aggregate 5-year capital plan; ~+8-10% aggregate rate base growth. President + CEO Sean Trauschke since 2015 (~10-year tenure); CFO Bryan Buckler. Capital return: ~$1.69 annual dividend FY2025 (~85-year continuous dividend track post-1940s); minimal opportunistic buybacks; aggregate capital return ~$340-360M FY2025; net leverage ratio ~58-62% debt-to-capital; investment-grade A3/BBB+ credit rating. FY2026 thesis: Oklahoma + Arkansas regulated electric utility cycle + Data center load growth + post-2024 hyperscale ramp + ~$1.69 annual dividend + ~85-year continuous dividend track + ~$340-380M aggregate annual capital return + ~$8-10B aggregate 5-year capital plan. Risks: Entergy + Edison International + Sempra + American Electric Power + Berkshire Hathaway Energy competition, Oklahoma Corporation Commission + Arkansas Public Service Commission rate case, authorized ROE compression, environmental compliance considerations, AI capex cycle deceleration.